Daily Chartbook #67
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Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: macro market charts, data, and insights pulled from various sources around the Internet by a solo retail investor.
1. Resilient oil consumption. Compared to previous recent recessions, crude oil consumption has remained resilient. On the other hand, the “pattern is following those seen in prior downturns”.
2. You price it in dollars. "The strength of the US dollar means that many of the world’s largest oil-importing nations are seeing scant benefit from the drop in crude prices".
3. Oil prices vs GDPs. The economic impacts of a $30 increase in the price of oil are felt much more in the Euro area and China than in the US.
4. Home sales (I). Existing home sales dropped for the 8th consecutive month, declining by 1.5% in September (vs. -2.1% expected), and bringing YoY sales down to 23.8%, "the worst drop since Nov 2010 (ex Covid lockdowns)".
5. Home sales (II). "This was the thirteen consecutive month with sales down year-over-year".
6. Truss vs. 10Y gilt yields. "Liz Truss's 44 days as prime minister, in one chart".
7. GBP comeback. Coincidentally, "the British Pound is the world's best performing currency, since 9/22, the day before the mini-budget".
8. Core inflation forecasts. Goldman Sachs "economists expect inflation to peak in 1H 2023 in G4 economies".
9. Beige Book word count. Yesterday's "Beige Book’s ‘weak’ or ‘slow’ word count points to a sharp slowdown ahead".
10. Initial jobless claims drop. "Not only did Initial Jobless Claims fall again last week, but the prior week's reading was revised lower. US labor market solid as a rock, despite the rate hikes and market plunge".
11. Philly Manufacturing (I). "Manufacturing activity in the region continued to decline overall…future general activity indexes suggest that the surveyed firms expect declines overall over the next six months".
12. Philly Manufacturing (II). 46% of firms reported increases in input prices compared to just 10% reporting decreases.
13. Philly Manufacturing (III). "Philly Fed: Q3 EPS estimates not the problem. It's rather Q4, Q1, Q2…".
14. Global output vs. demand shortfall. In recent months, "the average demand shortfall tracker for manufacturing registered some of the highest readings on record"…"yet, manufacturing output has remained resilient throughout this period, and any monthly contractions have been mild".
15. CB Leading Economic Index. "The US LEI fell again in September and its persistent downward trajectory in recent months suggests a recession is increasingly likely before yearend".
16. Terminal rate. "There it is - fed funds futures now pricing in a Fed terminal rate next by June year of 5.00%".
17. Equities are increasingly sensitive to economic surprises. "Is this an effect of equities "digesting" economic data, or simply a market that is massively "distorted" by options, liquidity etc?".
18. Retail outlows. Retail investors sold $2.4 billion last week in their 4th consecutive week of net selling. "For comparison, in Mar-2020 retail sold as much as $11 billion".
19. AAII bulls & bears (I). Bearish sentiment has held above 50% for 5 consecutive weeks. "Only 1990 had a longer stretch".
20. AAII bulls & bears (II). "In the 07-09 bear market we had plenty of times with bull/bear ratio positive. We have had exactly ONE week with a positive ratio since 2022 started".
21. Active investment manager exposure. "The new NAAIM equity exposure reading clawing back up from the depths, still on the light side".
22. Short interest. Average short interest over shares outstanding are highest for discretionary, health care, and energy stocks.
23. Heavy shorts. "Hedge funds and asset managers remain record net short US futures". CTAs are also significantly short equities.
24. Short-term options mania. An explosion in short-term options speculation is "magnifying an already unstable market that is desperate for liquidity".
25. Emerging market equities. "EM multiples are anticipating roughly 20% earnings declines (yet only 8% is realized this year). The recent de-rating of MSCI EM PE of 35% sits roughly half-way between the GFC and 2018 bear markets".
26. Markets overshoot both ways. "At the peak of the Covid Bubble, the $SPX was 40% above its 200 week moving average, making it the 3rd largest Stock Market Bubble of the last 100 years".
27. Pre-announcements. "There has been a slight uptick in preliminary earnings announcements on Wall Street".
28. Markets imply big inflation relief. "Fixed income markets are expecting the sharpest drop in inflation ever since the 2008 Great Financial Crisis".
29. Energy breaking resistance. And finally “energy stocks vs. S&P 500 ratio just poked its head out of a 14-year resistance”.
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