Daily Chartbook

Share this post

Daily Chartbook #65

www.dailychartbook.com

Daily Chartbook #65

Catch up on the day in 30 charts

Daily Chartbook
Oct 19, 2022
15
Share this post

Daily Chartbook #65

www.dailychartbook.com

Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: macro market charts, data, and insights pulled from various sources around the Internet by a solo retail investor.


1. Homebuilder sentiment continues slide. The NAHB housing market index fell sharply to 38 in October and plummeting prospective buyer traffic suggests further declines ahead.

Image
@lvieweconomics

2. State Coincident Index. Recessions occur when more than 5 states see decreasing activty for at least 7 months. “We are now at 3 months”.

Isabelnet

3. Pivot probabilities. The odds of a policy pivot in the next 12 months are increasing.

Image
@callum_thomas (see ChartStorm)

4. Household impact. "With households already struggling to make ends meet, the impact of Fed hikes on consumption, the main driver of economic growth, will occur quickly."

Image
@lanceroberts

5. Confidence blows. CEO confidence has declined for 6 consecutive quarters, "which is longest streak since mid-1980s…one more monthly dip would mark longest streak in index’s history".

@lizannsonders

6. Global economic trends in the next 12 months. "Never before has stagflation been so vibed".

Image
@mikezaccardi

7. Effects on disposable income. The real disposable income for the bottom quintile of income earners has been hit significantly worse than that of higher earners.

Image
@mikezaccardi

8. Industrial production. Industrial production surged 0.4% in September (vs. +0.1% expected) after falling for 3 out of the last 4 months.

Zero Hedge

9. Manufacturing production. Manufacturing production also increased more than expected in September (+0.4% vs +0.2% expected) and has now risen for 3 consecutive months.

Zero Hedge

10. Capacity utilization rate. Capacity utilization increased to its highest rate since March 2008 which suggests further price pressures ahead.

Zero Hedge


11. Market stability (or lack thereof). "Financial market stability risk is at all-time high".

Image
@zerohedge

12. Corporate spreads. From BofA: “Our analysts think the credit market (and corporate balance sheets) are in reasonably good health. The spread between corporate bonds and 10-year Treasuries have widened”.

Image
@mikezaccardi

13. IPO laggards. “Three-quarters of US IPOs issued between 2019 and 2021 are trading below their listing price.”

Financial Times

14. M&A. Mergers & acquisitions activity has also been on a steady decline, both in deal volumes and values.

us-mergers-and-acquisitions-market-index
Fact Set

15. Pricing power fading. "US businesses see less pricing power. This is usually a bad sign for earnings."

Image
@beursanalist

16. TICK. "The very first print in [yesterday's] market saw the biggest buying program (represented by NYSE TICK index) in history!"

Zero Hedge

17. Positive revisions. "A lot of sectors now have positive earnings revision".

Datastream via TME

18. 3 months into an earnings recession. "With 3.5% in rate hikes still coming into the economy starting in 2023, demand destruction has a good bit to go".

Image
@lanceroberts

19. EPS FUD. Earnings uncertainty is rising.

Morgan Stanley

20. Policy capitulation. According to BofA, policy capitulation has begun with 28% of fund managers expecting lower short-term rates in the next 12 months.

Image
BofA via @carlquintanilla

21. High cash levels. "Fund managers are sitting on a lot of cash", the highest levels April 2001.

BofA via Daily Shot

22. For those screaming capitulation. "For context, the July '00 peak cash levels is the green arrow on the $SPX chart. The market proceeded to drop almost 50% peak to trough. It's a useful indicator, but not as a stand alone".

Image
@janom40

23. No outflow capitulation. “Fund managers’ extreme bearishness has not yet translated into outflow capitulation”.

BofA via Daily Shot

24. Risk-averse. Fund managers are not taking a lot of risks.

BofA via TME

25. Advisors are pessimistic. "US equity advisory optimism at its lowest since 2008".

Image
@lvieweconomics

26. Deteriorating market liquidity. "Poor liquidity continues to haunt this market and will magnify all moves".

BofA via TME

27. Corporate profits outlook. Net 91% of fund managers think corporate profits are unlikely to rise 10% or more in the next 12 months, "the most since the global financial crisis".

relates to BofA Survey ‘Screams’ Capitulation With Rally Set for 2023
Bloomberg

28. Record margins under pressure. According to Morgan Stanley, with slowing growth, increasing demand for services, “and the Fed's fight against inflation likely to reverse pricing power, companies could face stiff headwinds to profits. Such risks are not discounted in 2023 consensus yet”.

Morgan Stanley

29. Guidance Index. Companies are still raising guidance more than they are lowering, “which is mostly at odds with overall economic growth”.

Image
@lizannsonders

30. Upside force vs. downside force. And finally, moves to the upside have been the stronger force lately.

Nomura via TME

Thanks for reading!

Share this post

Daily Chartbook #65

www.dailychartbook.com
Comments
TopNewCommunity

No posts

Ready for more?

© 2023 Daily Chartbook
Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Start WritingGet the app
Substack is the home for great writing