Daily Chartbook #65
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Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: macro market charts, data, and insights pulled from various sources around the Internet by a solo retail investor.
1. Homebuilder sentiment continues slide. The NAHB housing market index fell sharply to 38 in October and plummeting prospective buyer traffic suggests further declines ahead.
2. State Coincident Index. Recessions occur when more than 5 states see decreasing activty for at least 7 months. “We are now at 3 months”.
3. Pivot probabilities. The odds of a policy pivot in the next 12 months are increasing.
4. Household impact. "With households already struggling to make ends meet, the impact of Fed hikes on consumption, the main driver of economic growth, will occur quickly."
5. Confidence blows. CEO confidence has declined for 6 consecutive quarters, "which is longest streak since mid-1980s…one more monthly dip would mark longest streak in index’s history".
6. Global economic trends in the next 12 months. "Never before has stagflation been so vibed".
7. Effects on disposable income. The real disposable income for the bottom quintile of income earners has been hit significantly worse than that of higher earners.
8. Industrial production. Industrial production surged 0.4% in September (vs. +0.1% expected) after falling for 3 out of the last 4 months.
9. Manufacturing production. Manufacturing production also increased more than expected in September (+0.4% vs +0.2% expected) and has now risen for 3 consecutive months.
10. Capacity utilization rate. Capacity utilization increased to its highest rate since March 2008 which suggests further price pressures ahead.
11. Market stability (or lack thereof). "Financial market stability risk is at all-time high".
12. Corporate spreads. From BofA: “Our analysts think the credit market (and corporate balance sheets) are in reasonably good health. The spread between corporate bonds and 10-year Treasuries have widened”.
13. IPO laggards. “Three-quarters of US IPOs issued between 2019 and 2021 are trading below their listing price.”
14. M&A. Mergers & acquisitions activity has also been on a steady decline, both in deal volumes and values.
15. Pricing power fading. "US businesses see less pricing power. This is usually a bad sign for earnings."
16. TICK. "The very first print in [yesterday's] market saw the biggest buying program (represented by NYSE TICK index) in history!"
17. Positive revisions. "A lot of sectors now have positive earnings revision".
18. 3 months into an earnings recession. "With 3.5% in rate hikes still coming into the economy starting in 2023, demand destruction has a good bit to go".
19. EPS FUD. Earnings uncertainty is rising.
20. Policy capitulation. According to BofA, policy capitulation has begun with 28% of fund managers expecting lower short-term rates in the next 12 months.
21. High cash levels. "Fund managers are sitting on a lot of cash", the highest levels April 2001.
22. For those screaming capitulation. "For context, the July '00 peak cash levels is the green arrow on the $SPX chart. The market proceeded to drop almost 50% peak to trough. It's a useful indicator, but not as a stand alone".
23. No outflow capitulation. “Fund managers’ extreme bearishness has not yet translated into outflow capitulation”.
24. Risk-averse. Fund managers are not taking a lot of risks.
25. Advisors are pessimistic. "US equity advisory optimism at its lowest since 2008".
26. Deteriorating market liquidity. "Poor liquidity continues to haunt this market and will magnify all moves".
27. Corporate profits outlook. Net 91% of fund managers think corporate profits are unlikely to rise 10% or more in the next 12 months, "the most since the global financial crisis".
28. Record margins under pressure. According to Morgan Stanley, with slowing growth, increasing demand for services, “and the Fed's fight against inflation likely to reverse pricing power, companies could face stiff headwinds to profits. Such risks are not discounted in 2023 consensus yet”.
29. Guidance Index. Companies are still raising guidance more than they are lowering, “which is mostly at odds with overall economic growth”.
30. Upside force vs. downside force. And finally, moves to the upside have been the stronger force lately.
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