Daily Chartbook #61
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Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: macro market charts, data, and insights pulled from various sources around the Internet by a solo retail investor.
1. OPEC outlook. OPEC cut its oil-demand outlook today, but…"the MOMR demand outlook has been *hilariously* bullish for ages now…*remains* hilariously bullish even after this downgrade (look at 4Q23!)". Latest = light, Previous = dark.
2. SPR levels. "In this pace of selling oil from the US strategic reserves, these will run dry in 5-6 months time."
3. Mortgage rates march on. US MBA 30-year mortgage rates reached 6.81% which "pushed down a gauge of applications to purchase or refinance a home by 2%, the eighth drop in nine weeks, to the lowest level since 1997".
4. Homebuilders. "Interesting to see homebuilder sentiment (blue) and existing home sales (white) plunge as construction payrolls (orange) continue to climb above pre-pandemic peak … similar to 2005-2006 in terms of lead-lag relationship (but with notable differences)".
5. Trucking relief. "Conditions in the trucking market continues to soften for carriers. Tender rejections which measure the percent of contracted loads that were "rejected" or turned down from trucking companies has dropped to a new cycle low w/ only 5.05% of loads being rejected".
6. Hikes vs. output. When central banks hike, growth slows.
7. Household leverage is relatively low. US households are in much better shape than they were ahead of the Great Financial Crisis.
8. Tight conditions (I). Goldman's US Financial Conditions Index is "now at tightest since March 2020".
9. Tight conditions (II). Goldman's Global Financial Conditions Index (ex Russia) is at new, new highs.
10. PPI (I). Producer prices came in hotter than expected (+0.4% vs. +0.2%) in September while core prices were inline with estimates (+0.3%).
11. PPI (II). Year-over-year, "PPI is moderating, but still unacceptably high".
12. PPI (III). YoY change in contributions.
13. PPI (IV). YoY change in top 5 sub-component contributors.
14. PPI (V). MoM change in contributions.
15. Fed reserve earnings. "The Fed now earns less on its assets than it pays on liabilities."
16. Dying breed. The number of new unicorns (startups valued at $1 billion +) has plunged to 25 from a peak of 148 in Q2 2022.
17. ARKK & NASDAQ. "Tuesday was the 419th trading day since ARKK’s all-time high and it has fallen 77% since its peak in February 2021. Over the same timeframe in 2000 – 2001, the NASDAQ was down 64% from its March 2000 high".
18. Tough year. The S&P 500 has closed in the green just 43.1% of days in 2022. Excludes today.
19. Global indices. US benchmarks (blue, purple) remain above their 2020 peaks, while those in London, Shanghai, and the Eurozone (orange, white, red) have fallen below.
20. RIP 60/40 (I). The 60/40 is off to its first 3-quarter start ever…
21. RIP 60/40 (II). ...and is "on pace to become the 2nd worst year in history after 1931".
22. Bulls & bears. Fewest AAII bulls since 2016 and most AAII bears since 2011. "Bull-bear spread at new cycle low & at level similar to Jul 2008 & Mar 2009".
23. Talk vs. action. "Despite all the bearishness built up in sentiment, investors are still net buyers of US equities".
24. Passive > active. "Passive funds have captured all of the inflows in 2022"
25. Peak blackout. We are entering peak buyback blackout period, “removing a crucial tailwind for equities”.
26. Glass-half-full sign. “Corporate insiders are buying their company stock again in size during this latest sell-off. As the saying goes, insiders sell for all kinds of reasons, but they only buy for one”.
27. EPS estimates declining. "Earnings estimates are beginning to decline at a faster rate".
28. Earnings growth decelerating. "Earnings growth decelerating at fastest pace since 2011…S&P 500 GAAP earnings fall an average of 25.3% around recessions".
29. Trough prerequisite. "In past recessions equities never troughed before the Fed cut rates."
30. Commodity bulls. And finally, "after a breaking out from a 26-year resistance, [commodities are] now sitting on support and ready for another move".
Thanks for reading!