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Daily Chartbook #60

www.dailychartbook.com

Daily Chartbook #60

Catch up on the day in 26 charts

Daily Chartbook
Oct 12, 2022
15
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Daily Chartbook #60

www.dailychartbook.com

Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: macro market charts, data, and insights pulled from various sources around the Internet by a solo retail investor.


1. US oil production up in 1H 2022. "U.S. crude oil production averaged 11.1 million barrels per day in the first half of 2022, up from an annual average of 10.8 million barrels per day in 2021".

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@eiagov

2. Worst yet to come. "The IMF cut its forecast for global growth next year to 2.7%, from 2.9% seen in July and 3.8% in January, adding that it sees a 25% probability that growth will slow to less than 2%".

Zero Hedge

3. Small biz (I). The Small Business Optimism Index improved by 1.9 to 91.8 while the Uncertainty Index increased by 7 to 74.

NFIB

4. Small biz (II). Inflation is still far and away the single most important problem for small businesses.

NFIB

5. Leading jobs indicator. Trucking jobs, which "always lead payrolls" just saw their biggest monthly drop since April 2009.

@ppgmacro

6. Households tighten their belts. NY Fed forecasts "for household-spending growth over the coming year dropped sharply, notching the steepest one-month decline since June 2013".

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@lizannsonders

7. Inflation expectations (I). Consumer expectations for 1-year inflation declined to 5.4% from 5.7% in September while 3-year inflation expectations ticked up to 2.9% from 2.8%.

Zero Hedge

8. Inflation expectations (II). "Matrix of various inflation expectation data points".

Zero Hedge

9. Talk is cheap. AAII sentiment "is lower today than it was during Global Financial Crisis, yet investors today are willing to pay more for forward earnings, as shown by S&P 500 forward P/E being higher today than it was in 2008."

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@lizannsonders

10. Risk off. Sentiment across assets remains largely risk-off.

Goldman via TME


11. Record put buying. "Institutional traders spent another record amount on hedges".

SentimenTrader via Daily Shot

12. Smart money is record short. Hedge fund and asset managers are record net short US equity futures.

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@mayhem4markets

13. Light positioning. Stock positioning has moved up off "extremely light" levels.

Isabelnet

14. Stock ownership breakdown. "Demand for US equities is driven by US households, foreign investors, passive mutual funds and ETFs".

Isabelnet

15. Investor flows. "Government bond funds remain a popular place in which investors have hidden for safety recently, but large- and mid-cap equity funds continue to see interest over past month as well".

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@lizannsonders

16. Macro in the driver's seat. "Nobody cares about single stocks. It is all about index hedging."

The Market Ear

17. EM outflows rise. "Capital outflows from emerging markets have picked up over the past month against the backdrop of a strong US dollar".

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@dlacalle_IA

18. Semis pain. "The global chip sector has now lost over $240 billion in market cap, thanks in part due to growing US restrictions on selling to China".

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@thestalwart

19. Low buybacks. "Buybacks typically pick up over the next month, but have been tracking below average most of this year".

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@mikezaccardi

20. Leading tech. "Tech sector performance starts to bounce back 18 months before fundamentals return".

Morgan Stanley via TME

21. Tech lag. "Nasdaq 100 earnings have been lagging S&P  500 earnings for 12 months".

BofA via TME

22. Forward EPS estimates. S&P 600 forward EPS estimates (white) have been stronger this year relative to estimates for the Nasdaq 100 (orange).

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@lizannsonders

23. EPS forecasts. BofA is expecting EPS YoY growth of 6% in 2022 and -9% in 2023.

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@mikezaccardi

24. Revisions breadth. S&P 500 EPS earnings revisions breadth (yellow) remains negative.

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@wallstjesus

25. Earnings slashed. "Q3 earnings estimates have been cut significantly".

Isabelnet

26. Stocks vs. CPI. And finally, “over the past decade, never have stocks been so negatively reactive to an economic indicator as they are now to CPI”.

relates to JPMorgan Says Too-Hot CPI Would Put Stocks at Risk of 5% Tumble
Bloomberg

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Daily Chartbook #60

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