Daily Chartbook #58
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Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: macro market charts, data, and insights pulled from various sources around the Internet by a solo retail investor.
1. Falling food costs. Global food prices have declined for 6 consecutive months.
2. Stronger than expected NFP (I). The US added 263k jobs in September which was more than expected (250k) but also the smallest advance since April 2021.
3. Stronger than expected NFP (II). "Today's stronger than expected nonfarm payrolls report was the sixth in a row, which is the longest streak since at least 1998".
4. NFP monthly change (I). Lower-paying services jobs saw the biggest gains in September.
5. NFP monthly change (II). Monthly changes by sector.
6. LFPR down (I). "Labor force participation rate (blue) down from 62.4% to 62.3%; rate for men (orange) ticked up to 68.1%; rate for women (purple) ticked down to 56.8%".
7. LFPR down (II). "Most of the improvement in the unemployment rate was due to hiring. A little bit was due to the downtick in labor force participation".
8. Unemployment rate drops. "The US Unemployment Rate moved back down to 3.5% in September, tying pre-pandemic levels for the lowest rate we've seen since 1969".
9. Household survey. "Household survey (from which unemployment rate is calculated) increased by 204k vs. 442k in prior month".
10. Immigration trend. "Another key missing part of the labor market puzzle: immigration."
11. Hourly earnings growth slows. "US Average Hourly Earnings increased 4.98% YoY in September, the slowest growth rate since December 2021. This will be the 18th consecutive month that inflation outpaced the growth in wages, a decline in prosperity for the American worker".
12. Surprise factors. "Of the 6 different types of economic data that we get (as categorized by Bloomberg), it's the labor market that's most consistently been surprising to the upside. Housing the worst".
13. Inflation expectations. "The 5 and 10y breakevens show that the FEDs plan is working".
14. Bear market pricing. "Bear market recessions last longer and experience deeper falls. This year’s equity downturn is fully consistent, historically speaking, with one that will eventually incur a recession".
15. Pre-recessionary behavior. Earnings don't start falling until the recession is underway.
16. Sustainable rally? JPM's catalysts for a continued rally: hedge funds' short positioning, retail selling single stocks (chart), and low CTA equity positioning.
17. Rally behavior. Hedge fund “flows have shifted toward de-grossing" and “net flows have been slightly skewed negative as well. So far this pattern is similar to what we saw in the 1wk rally from the June lows, as well as what we saw in July when markets started to rebound.”
18. Talk vs. action. There is a massive divergence in consumer sentiment and retail investor stock allocation.
19. Lower lows. In 2022, the Nasdaq has seen the "most new lows since the Great Financial Crisis".
20. Growth vs. Value. Bloomberg's Pure Growth index is lagging the Pure Value index MTD for the first time since May.
21. Bitcoinzzz. Flows into publicly listed Bitcoin funds have stalled.
22. S&P 500 company headwinds. In terms of factors having a negative impact on Q3 earnings, revenues, or profit margins, the top 3 factors cited by S&P companies have been labor costs, supply chain disruptions, and unfavorable foreign exchange rates.
23. Earnings downgrades. "71% of industry groups are seeing estimate downgrades from the previous quarter. That is however not an extreme number if you look at the last 15 years".
24. New orders, inventories, and EPS growth. "If companies are reporting a sluggish pace of new orders and at the same time quickly building up large inventories, a few quarters later earnings growth is likely to start disappointing".
25. Q3 earnings (I). "SPX earnings forecasts continue to retreat" and are expected to grow 2.4% in Q3 which "would be the smallest rate since Q3 2020".
26. Q3 earnings (II). Growth forecasts by sector.
27. Low forward P/E. And finally, the S&P 500's current forward P/E of 15.8 is below both the 5-year (18.5) and 10-year (17.1) averages.
Have a great weekend!