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Daily Chartbook #54

www.dailychartbook.com

Daily Chartbook #54

Catch up on the day in 28 charts

Daily Chartbook
Oct 4, 2022
11
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Daily Chartbook #54

www.dailychartbook.com

Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: macro market charts, data, and insights pulled from various sources around the Internet by a solo retail investor.


1. OPEC+ (I). The market is expecting OPEC+ to cut production at its meeting this week by ~1 million barrels per day (roughly 1% of global supply).

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@credit_junk

2. OPEC+ (II). Crude production has been below target levels since mid-2021

Bloomberg

3. Global QT. "Balance Sheets for the Fed, ECB, BoJ and BoE have reduced -$3.1 trillion in the past 7 months".

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@ayeshatariq

4. Scenarios. In a higher for longer (inflation and rate hikes) scenario, Goldman Sachs assumes "that the FOMC would hike by 25bp per meeting in 2023H1 and 25bp per quarter in 2023H2, taking the funds rate to 5.75-6%".

Goldman via TME

5. Historically low inflation expectations. At 2.7%, consumers’ long-term (5-10 years) inflation expectations are actually below their 50-year average.

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@fundstrat via @carlquintanilla

6. Negativity streak. Goldman's sentiment indicator has been negative for 31 consecutive weeks, the second longest streak on record.

Goldman via TME

7. Rapid savings drawdown. "The new data show that the peak savings stock was $2.1T, in August last year, and some $630B has been spent, about 31%".

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@pantheonmacro via @carlquintanilla

8. Construction slowdown. Construction spending fell for the second straight month, declining 0.7% in August (vs. -0.3% expected) for the biggest drop since February 2021.

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@lizannsonders

9. Mixed manufacturing PMIs. ISM Manufacturing (green) disappointed in September, falling to 50.9 (vs. 52.2 expected) while S&P Global US Manufacturing (blue) improved to 52 (vs. 51.8 expected).

Zero Hedge

10. US manufacturing. ISM and regional manufacturing indexes.

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@m_mcdonough


11. ISM Manufacturing PMI (I). While prices eased and production ticked up, new orders fell to their lowest level since May 2020 and employment dropped to its lowest since June.

Zero Hedge

12. ISM Manufacturing PMI (II). "Only two instances in past 60+ years when ISM New Orders Index was as low as it was in September and economy was not already in (or heading into) recession: 1995-96 & 1967".

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@willidelwiche

13. ISM Manufacturing PMI (III). How far each component is from 50 (above/below = expansion/contraction).

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@m_mcdonough

14. ISM Manufacturing PMI (IV). Will the decline in manufacturing prices paid soon be reflected in CPI data?

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@michaelaarouet

15. Fed pivot. From Mike Wilson: "The dollar’s price action 'will eventually get the Fed to back off.' But even though a Fed pivot will likely lead to stock rallies, it 'won’t change the trajectory of earnings estimates, our primary concern for stocks at this point.'".

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Morgan Stanley via @carlquintanilla

16. Wealthy investors. BofA's private clients equity as a percentage of assets under management is declining but still above average.

Bofa via TME

17. Smart money exposure. "Hedge funds and mutual funds slashed exposure, but remain invested".

Goldman via TME


18. JPM cross-asset survey. Investor appetite for equity exposure has increased significantly since August.

JPM via TME

19. Equity sentiment. Goldman's equity sentiment indicator has moved from "extreme light" to "light".

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@wallstjesus

20. US funds allocations. Active weighting by industry group.

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@wallstjesus

21. Gold outflows. Rising yields have driven the longest streak of outflows in gold since January 2014

BofA via Isabelnet

22. Treasury demand. "JPMorgan is worried about who's going to buy all the bonds".

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@priapusIQ

23. Comeback requirements. What kind of returns will it take for the S&P 500 to get back to its peak?

JPM: Guide to the Markets

24. Biggest drawdowns. "Below are the top 20 largest peak to trough drawdowns for the S&P 500 going back to 1961. Never ever have Treasuries, the risk-off asset, gone down more than stocks".

@leadlagreport via TME

25. Commodity breadth is weakening. “About 20% of commodities have positive return on rolling 1-month basis, way off peak of ~80% not long ago”.

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@lizannsonders

26. S&P EPS revisions (I). Of 106 S&P 500 companies that have issued quarterly EPS guidance for Q3, "65 have issued negative EPS guidance and 41 have issued positive EPS guidance".

sp500-negative-positive-eps-preannouncements
Fact Set

27. S&P EPS revisions (II). Relative to Q2, real estate, industrials, and consumer discretionary sectors have issued both the largest increase in positive guidance and the largest decrease in negative guidance in Q3.

Fact Set

28. Too high? And finally, earnings estimates for 2023-2024 remain ambitious.

JPM: Guide to the Markets

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