Daily Chartbook

Share this post

Daily Chartbook #48

www.dailychartbook.com

Daily Chartbook #48

Catch up on the day in 25 charts

Daily Chartbook
Sep 24, 2022
11
Share this post

Daily Chartbook #48

www.dailychartbook.com

Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: macro market charts, data, and insights pulled from various sources around the Internet by a solo retail investor.


1. Oil prices plunge. WTI crude prices have declined for 4 consecutive weeks and are now below $80 a barrel for the first time since January.

Concerns about the demand outlook weigh on crude
Bloomberg

2. Supply chain improving (I). "Global container freight rates hit an 18-month low, down 61% from their peak. Still 3x higher than pre-pandemic levels but continuing to move in the right direction".

Image
@charliebilello

3. Supply chain improving (II). "Drewry's World Container Index, Shanghai to Los Angeles, an important Transpacific benchmark rate, has plunged below $4K for the first time since September 2020, hitting $3,779 yesterday".

Image
@jphampstead

4. Goldman’s updated soft landing requirements. "A slowdown in economic growth and a significant decline in wage growth is needed to reduce inflation".

Daily Shot

5. Inflation forecasts. Goldman sees core inflation peaking in Q4.

Goldman Sachs via TME

6. GDP tracking. BofA's GDP tracking for Q2 is down to -0.7% (from -0.6%) while Q3 growth remains at a projected 0.8%.

Image
@mikezaccardi

7. Straight talk. "As straightforward as it gets: Wednesday's speech by Powell registered lowest Flesh-Kincaid score (measures number of years of school needed to comprehend a statement) since 1994".

Image
@lizannsonders

8. Flash US PMI. The composite index improved to 49.3 in September from 44.6 in August for the softest contraction in 3 months. Manufacturing improved to 51.8 from 51.5 while service increased to 49.2 from 43.7. Both remain in contraction but were higher than expected.

SP Global

9. Real yield troubles (I). Goldman expects the real 10YR yield to march higher.

Goldman Sachs via TME

10. Real yield troubles (II). Which poses a headwind to equities valuations.

Image
@zerohedge


11. Real yield troubles (III). Real yields on US2Y Treasuries are also surging and are at their highest since 2009.

Image
@lisaabramowicz1

12. Real yield troubles (IV). Which similarly poses a risk to stocks.

Image
@mayhem4markets

13. Corporate demand. Corporations were the only net buyers of equities in Q2.

Image
@lanceroberts

14. FX headwind. "Every 10% USD increase represents about a 3ppt drag on S&P EPS from translation and a ~50bp drag on US GDP via trade which translates to a 1-2% drag on EPS".

Image
@mikezaccardi

15. Equity risk premiums. "Historical downturns have resulted in a much sharper increase in ERP vs. now".

Image
@mikezaccardi

16. Global equity flows. Have inflows to global equities paused or peaked?

Image
@wallstjesus

17. Broad pain. New 52-week lows are being made around the world.

Image
@allstarcharts

18. Light investor positioning. "Equity investors positioning remains in light territory".

@mikezaccardi

19. Analysts overshoot (I). "On September 22, the bottom-up target price for the S&P 500 was 4,724.28, which was 25.7% above the closing price of 3,757.99".

sp500-bottom-up-target-price-vs-closing-price-12-months
Fact Set

20. Analysts overshoot (II). Communication services, tech, and real estate are expected to have the largest price increases “as these three sectors had the largest upside differences between the bottom-up target price and the closing price on September 22”.

sp500-bottom-up-target-price-vs-closing-price
Fact Set

21. Goldman's new S&P paths. "Reducing S&P 500 year-end 2022 target to 3600... The S&P 500 index actually reached our previous year-end target of 4300 in mid-August, but the rate complex has subsequently shifted dramatically…".

Image
@samro

22. S&P forward earnings. "S&P 500’s forward 12m P/E is off its peak by 37%; not worst this year but not far from June pain threshold".

Image
@lizannsonders

23. Oversold. "Nearly 40% of SPX components have an RSI under 30".

Image
@t1alpha

24. Tech breadth. "A month ago, 96% of S&P 500 Tech members were trading above their 50-day moving average … now, it’s just 3%".

Image
@lizannsonders

25. Losing streak. And finally, the S&P 500 has closed below its 200-day moving average for 116 straight sessions, the longest streak since the 2008-09 bear market.

Image
@lanceroberts

Have a great weekend!

Share this post

Daily Chartbook #48

www.dailychartbook.com
Comments
TopNewCommunity

No posts

Ready for more?

© 2023 Daily Chartbook
Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Start WritingGet the app
Substack is the home for great writing