Daily Chartbook #48
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Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: macro market charts, data, and insights pulled from various sources around the Internet by a solo retail investor.
1. Oil prices plunge. WTI crude prices have declined for 4 consecutive weeks and are now below $80 a barrel for the first time since January.
2. Supply chain improving (I). "Global container freight rates hit an 18-month low, down 61% from their peak. Still 3x higher than pre-pandemic levels but continuing to move in the right direction".
3. Supply chain improving (II). "Drewry's World Container Index, Shanghai to Los Angeles, an important Transpacific benchmark rate, has plunged below $4K for the first time since September 2020, hitting $3,779 yesterday".
4. Goldman’s updated soft landing requirements. "A slowdown in economic growth and a significant decline in wage growth is needed to reduce inflation".
5. Inflation forecasts. Goldman sees core inflation peaking in Q4.
6. GDP tracking. BofA's GDP tracking for Q2 is down to -0.7% (from -0.6%) while Q3 growth remains at a projected 0.8%.
7. Straight talk. "As straightforward as it gets: Wednesday's speech by Powell registered lowest Flesh-Kincaid score (measures number of years of school needed to comprehend a statement) since 1994".
8. Flash US PMI. The composite index improved to 49.3 in September from 44.6 in August for the softest contraction in 3 months. Manufacturing improved to 51.8 from 51.5 while service increased to 49.2 from 43.7. Both remain in contraction but were higher than expected.
9. Real yield troubles (I). Goldman expects the real 10YR yield to march higher.
10. Real yield troubles (II). Which poses a headwind to equities valuations.
11. Real yield troubles (III). Real yields on US2Y Treasuries are also surging and are at their highest since 2009.
12. Real yield troubles (IV). Which similarly poses a risk to stocks.
13. Corporate demand. Corporations were the only net buyers of equities in Q2.
14. FX headwind. "Every 10% USD increase represents about a 3ppt drag on S&P EPS from translation and a ~50bp drag on US GDP via trade which translates to a 1-2% drag on EPS".
15. Equity risk premiums. "Historical downturns have resulted in a much sharper increase in ERP vs. now".
16. Global equity flows. Have inflows to global equities paused or peaked?
17. Broad pain. New 52-week lows are being made around the world.
18. Light investor positioning. "Equity investors positioning remains in light territory".
19. Analysts overshoot (I). "On September 22, the bottom-up target price for the S&P 500 was 4,724.28, which was 25.7% above the closing price of 3,757.99".
20. Analysts overshoot (II). Communication services, tech, and real estate are expected to have the largest price increases “as these three sectors had the largest upside differences between the bottom-up target price and the closing price on September 22”.
21. Goldman's new S&P paths. "Reducing S&P 500 year-end 2022 target to 3600... The S&P 500 index actually reached our previous year-end target of 4300 in mid-August, but the rate complex has subsequently shifted dramatically…".
22. S&P forward earnings. "S&P 500’s forward 12m P/E is off its peak by 37%; not worst this year but not far from June pain threshold".
23. Oversold. "Nearly 40% of SPX components have an RSI under 30".
24. Tech breadth. "A month ago, 96% of S&P 500 Tech members were trading above their 50-day moving average … now, it’s just 3%".
25. Losing streak. And finally, the S&P 500 has closed below its 200-day moving average for 116 straight sessions, the longest streak since the 2008-09 bear market.
Have a great weekend!