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Daily Chartbook #47

www.dailychartbook.com

Daily Chartbook #47

Catch up on the day in 26 charts

Daily Chartbook
Sep 23, 2022
10
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Daily Chartbook #47

www.dailychartbook.com

Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: macro market charts, data, and insights pulled from various sources around the Internet by a solo retail investor.


1. Strategic Petroleum Reserves. "For the first time since 1983, US commercial crude storage is now higher than SPR".

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@hfi_research

2. US gasoline demand is subdued. "Falling prices at the pump fail to pump up demand".

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@dimartinobooth

3. Luxury home sales have plunged. Sales of luxury homes have fallen over 28% YoY, the largest drop on record.

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@c_barraud

4. Qualifying income requirements. The qualifying income to get a mortgage has skyrocketed.

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@jeffweniger

5. Worsening affordability. “Payments on a median-priced US home require 36% of household income, the biggest chunk since 1985”.

Bloomberg

6. TSA throughput. Traveling remains strong as "throughput this year at healthy levels vs. past few years, with recent number even surpassing 2019 level".

@lizannsonders

7. Federal funds rate forecast. Goldman is expecting hikes of 75bps in November, 50bps in December, and 25bps in February.

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@mikezaccardi

8. Tightness. Financial conditions relative to their 5-year average are at Great Financial Crisis levels.

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@lizannsonders

9. History doesn’t bode well for 2% inflation. "In the modern era (dating back to 1980 so as not to include the stagflation of the 1970s), once advanced economies have allowed inflation to exceed 5%, it has invariably taken years to bring it down all the way to 2%".

BofA via John Authers

10. Labor market still tight (I). "This week initial claims rose 5,000 to 213,000 from a revised 3 month low of 208,000, while the 4 week average declined another -6,000 to a new 3 month low of 216,750. Continuing claims, which lag somewhat, declined 22,000 to 1,379,000".

The Bonddad Blog


11. Labor market still tight (II). Initial jobless claims by region.

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@m_mcdonough

12. LEI declines. The Conference Board Leading Index (LEI) declined 0.3% in August and is down 1% YoY.

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@credit_junk

13. Kansas Fed. The Kansas Fed Composite Index fell to 1 from 3 last month for the lowest reading since July 2020 as "prices paid moved up, production increased, new orders continued to contract, shipments were flat, and delivery times sank".

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@lizannsonders

14. Risk on/off. According to Goldman Sachs, risk remains mostly off.

Goldman Sachs via Isabelnet

15. Midterm years. Will the S&P 500 see a midterm bounce as it did in previous years?

@ryandetrick via Isabelnet

16. Hedge fund shorts. Hedge fund net shorting is much less extreme than it was earlier in the year.

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@lanceroberts

17. Rich cash levels. Wealthy investors' cash levels are still near record lows.

BofA via TME

18. Fund managers’ cash levels. For global fund managers, on the other hand, cash as a % of AUM is at the "highest levels seen since 2001".

BofA via TME

19. Active managers’ exposure. The NAAIM Exposure Index ticked down to 29.6 from 33.9 a week ago.

NAAIM

20. AAII bears. AAII bears jumped to the highest levels since March 2009 this week, which "joins just 4 others in 35 years with more than 60% of respondents being despondent in the AAII survey".

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@sentimentrader

21. Retail army ditches single stocks. Retail traders "only bought $460MM in cash equities this past week, -1.4 standard deviations below 12M average. They bought $1.7B of ETFs and sold -$1.2B of single stocks".

JPM Retail Radar via TME

22. Retail army performance. "Estimated performance of retail investors since Jan-2020".

JPM via TME

23. Earnings breadth & recessions. Here's the "weekly breadth of earnings estimate revisions for the 24 industry groups in the S&P 500. Two-thirds are seeing negative earnings revisions. During recessionary bear markets, all of them do, so for now the weakness is consistent with a soft landing".

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@timmerfidelity

24. Discretionary pain. "Consumer discretionary stocks are having their worst YTD performance in 30 yrs".

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@tavicosta

25. Optimistic take. From Stifel: "it is only if the Fed becomes incrementally more hawkish .. that we see 10Y TIPS yield rising further, thus we believe the P/E is bottoming. We see lower inflation, the 10Y TIPS yield pulling back and 4,400 for S&P 500 by 4Q-2022/1Q-2023".

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@carlquintanilla

26. Bull market intact. And finally, the secular bull market “that began in 2009 remains intact....for now”.

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Isabelnet via @lanceroberts

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Daily Chartbook #47

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