Daily Chartbook

Share this post

Daily Chartbook #43

www.dailychartbook.com

Daily Chartbook #43

Catch up on the day in 29 charts

Daily Chartbook
Sep 17, 2022
10
Share this post

Daily Chartbook #43

www.dailychartbook.com

Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: macro market charts, data, and insights pulled from various sources around the Internet by a solo retail investor.


1. Oil prices. Bernstein sees Brent prices moving back towards $120 a barrel in 2023.

Bernstein via TME

2. Wages vs. mortgage payments. In the US, "the average worker who buys a house today needs to put in almost 100 hours only to cover his monthly mortgage payment".

Image
@jeffweniger via @macroalf

3. Cash buyers. The share of homebuyers using cash to avoid high-rate mortgages is increasing

Axios

4. Negative home price appreciation ahead? "In the 34 instances in which months of supply increased by more than one month over any six-month period, year-on-year home price appreciation was negative 12 months forward 88% of the time".

relates to There’s an Unusual Thing Happening in the Housing Market
@jessefelder

5. Ocean freight volume down. "Container freight bound for the US (leaving port of origin) have now dropped below summer 2019 levels. It will take a few months before this shows up in US import numbers, but the outlook is very negative (note: this is supposed to be peak season)".

Image
@freightalley

6. Business trips are back. Travel transactions for small businesses are now at the highest levels since Covid began (left) and prices for airfare and lodging appear to have peaked (right).

BofA

7. CPI forecasts (I). From BofA: "We revise up our near-term CPI inflation outlook on the back of the stronger-than-expected August inflation report".

Image
@mikezaccardi

8. CPI forecasts (II). Continued: "Core goods inflation should experience a period of disinflation while we expect services inflation to moderate slowly".

Image
@mikezaccardi

9. Front-loading. Economists are expecting a 75 bps hike next week followed by a 50 bps increase in November.

Bloomberg

10. Inflation surprise. "Citi U.S. Inflation Surprise Index continues to plunge, eliminating all gains since January 2021 … for what it’s worth, last time we saw current magnitude of 6-month drop (-41) was end of 2006".

Image
@lizannsonders


11. Q3 GDP. That Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate was slashed to 0.5 from 1.3 a week ago.

Atlanta Fed

12. U of Michigan (I). Consumer sentiment improved to a 5-month high in September but fell short of expectations (59.5 vs. 60 expected). Current conditions and consumer expectations both ticked up but remain depressed.

@m_mcdonough

13. U of Michigan (II). Consumer 1- and 5-year inflation expectations have rolled over.

Image
@gregdaco

14. U of Michigan (III). "Uncertainty over short-run inflation reached levels last seen in 1982".

@gregdaco

15. U of Michigan (IV). There is still a wide gap between Consumer Sentiment (white) vs. Consumer Confidence (orange).

Image
@m_mcdonough

16. Strong DXY. Visualizing the US dollar's dominance.

Image
@mayhem4markets

17. Triple Witching (I). Today saw "$3.2 trillion notional of options expire in the equity markets".

@zerohedge

18. Triple Witching (II). Of that $3.2 trillion, "$509bn of single stock options [expired] today, up 30% since the July lows."

Zero Hedge

19. NAAIM Exposure Index. Active investment managers increased exposure to 33.9 from 27.3

NAAIM

20. Passive inflows. "Passive equity funds have captured all of the inflows since the Covid pandemic".

Image
@mikezaccardi

21. Household equity ownership. Investors' "allocations to equities are at record levels".

Image
@lanceroberts

22. Rough year for 60/40. The 60/40 portfolio is on pace for its worst performance in at least 25 years. "With household equity exposure coming into this year at the highest level on record, this probably understates the pain felt by the average investor".

@williedelwiche

23. Yield levels. "All-in yield levels have not been this high since the pre-financial crisis period".

Goldman Sachs via TME

24. S&P overvalued. "Current S&P 500 valuations are still too high given above-trend earnings and high inflation, according to Deutsche Bank Research".

DB via Daily Shot

25. Energy vs. crude. "Divergence has formed between YTD performance of S&P 500 Energy (blue) and Brent crude (orange) … former is +44% while latter is +17%; for considerable portion of this year, both were tracking each other".

Image
@lizannsonders

26. Earnings headwind. A steady decline in new orders poses a headwind for S&P 500 earnings.

Chris Williamson - RSM

27. Analysts ratings (I). "The percentage of Buy ratings is above the 5-year (month-end) average of 53.6%, while the percentages of Hold and Sell ratings are below their 5-year (month-end) averages of 40.4% and 6.0%".

sp500-ratings-percentages-monthly-2010-2022
Fact Set

28. Analysts ratings (II). Analysts are most optimistic about Energy, Information Technology, and Real Estate heading into Q4.

sp500-percentage-buy-hold-sell-ratings
Fact Set

29. Rought waters ahead. And finally, as a reminder, "we are entering what is historically the worst week of the calendar year on average for stocks".

Image
@mrblonde_macro

Have a great weekend!

Share this post

Daily Chartbook #43

www.dailychartbook.com
Comments
TopNewCommunity

No posts

Ready for more?

© 2023 Daily Chartbook
Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Start WritingGet the app
Substack is the home for great writing