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Daily Chartbook #42

www.dailychartbook.com

Daily Chartbook #42

Catch upon the day in 30 charts

Daily Chartbook
Sep 16, 2022
12
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Daily Chartbook #42

www.dailychartbook.com

Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: macro market charts, data, and insights pulled from various sources around the Internet by a solo retail investor.


1. WTI Crude. US oil is on pace for its first quarterly loss in 2 years.

Crude falls on uncertainty surrounding SPR refills after hitting January lows
Bloomberg

2. No US bailout for EU (I). "Oil and liquefied gas exports from the US have risen to take advantage of higher prices in Europe but are now near a maximum".

Line chart of  showing The recovery in shale patch activity has slowed
Financial Times

3. No US bailout for EU (II). The "overall number of operating rigs has stalled in recent weeks and productivity per well has plunged".

Line chart of Output per well (barrels per day) showing The US’s big shale oil basins are getting less productive
Financial Times

4. Meanwhile, in Russia... “Gazprom has earned more revenue from gas sales YTD than any of the recent year’s total”.

Barclays via TME

5. Mortgages double. "The 30-year mortgage rate in the US has moved above 6% for the first time since November 2008, more than doubling over the last year".

Image
@charliebilello

6. Affordability (or lack thereof). Rising rates (yellow) have driven housing affordability (dark blue) in the US to record lows.

Image
@mikezaccardi

7. Delinquencies down. On the bright side, serious delinquencies are declining (in sharp contrast to the previous housing bubble).

Calculated Risk

8. Railroad crisis averted. This is a relief as roughly 27% of US freight is transported by rail.

Bloomberg

9. Freight rates. "Freight rates (part of PPI) for deep sea transportation (orange) continue to soar while those for air (white), rail (purple), and truck (blue) have either leveled off or rolled over slightly".

Image
@lizannsonders

10. Sticky inflation. The Atlanta Fed's core sticky CPI is "increasing at 6% y/y, fastest rate since 1982".

Image
@lizannsonders


11. Resilient labor market. From BofA: "Clearly rising prices have been painful, but thus far the labor market seems to be more than offsetting the shock."

Image
@carlquintanilla

12. Import/Export prices. US import prices (led by lower fuel and nonfuel prices) decreased by 1% in August while export prices (led by lower agricultural and nonagricultural prices) decreased by 1.6% in August.

Image
@meaganscho

13. Retail sales (I). Sales in the US increased by 0.3% in August after July’s sales were revised down to -0.4% (from unchanged). Retail sales are up 9.1% year-over-year.

Zero Hedge

14. Retail sales (II). Nominal retail sales are up but shoppers are getting less bang for their buck.

Image
@gregdaco

15. Retail sales (III). Retail sales month-over-month change by category.

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@gregdaco

16. Initial jobless claims. "Initial jobless claims continued their reversal from [what] had been an almost relentless uptrend from spring through early August".

The Bonddad

17. Philly Fed Manufacturing (I). The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index contracted unexpectedly in September, falling -9.9 (vs. +2.8 expected). Future general activity improved but remains negative.

Chart 1. Current and Future General Activity Indexes
Philly Fed

18. Philly Fed Manufacturing (II). "The prices paid index declined for the fifth consecutive month" for the "lowest reading since December 2020".

Chart 2. Current Prices Paid and Prices Received Indexes
Philly Fed

19. Empire State Manufacturing (I). General business conditions in New York climbed to -1.5 in September from -31.3 last month.

NY Fed

20. Empire State Manufacturing (II). Current indicators.

NY Fed

21. Empire State Manufacturing (III). Current indicators, continued.

NY Fed

22. Empire State Manufacturing (IV). Forward-looking (6 months) indicators.

NY Fed

23. Empire State Manufacturing (V). Forward-looking (6 months) indicators, continued.

NY Fed

24. Industrial production. Industrial production dropped unexpectedly in August, declining by 0.2% (vs. +0.1% expected).

Zero Hedge

25. Tail risks. Global fund managers list persistently high inflation as the biggest economic tail risk.

BofA via Isabelnet

26. Growth > Value. During the current selloff, "pure growth factor has been outperforming pure value factor (blue), which is different from prior periods of weakness this year".

Image
@lizannsonders

27. Expensive defense. The forward price-to-earnings spread between Utilities and the S&P 500 is at its widest since 1990.

Image
@lizannsonders

28. Shorts (I). "Leveraged funds and assets managers remain net short on the S&P 500".

Isabelnet

29. Shorts (II). From Goldman: "Current short exposure is high but not yet at extreme levels especially when compared with longer-dated history".

Image
Goldman Sachs via @lanceroberts

30. 2023 EPS revisions. And finally, since the start of Q3, 2023 earnings have been revised down for all sectors but energy and utilities.

Goldman Sachs via TME
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