Daily Chartbook #42
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Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: macro market charts, data, and insights pulled from various sources around the Internet by a solo retail investor.
1. WTI Crude. US oil is on pace for its first quarterly loss in 2 years.
2. No US bailout for EU (I). "Oil and liquefied gas exports from the US have risen to take advantage of higher prices in Europe but are now near a maximum".
3. No US bailout for EU (II). The "overall number of operating rigs has stalled in recent weeks and productivity per well has plunged".
4. Meanwhile, in Russia... “Gazprom has earned more revenue from gas sales YTD than any of the recent year’s total”.
5. Mortgages double. "The 30-year mortgage rate in the US has moved above 6% for the first time since November 2008, more than doubling over the last year".
6. Affordability (or lack thereof). Rising rates (yellow) have driven housing affordability (dark blue) in the US to record lows.
7. Delinquencies down. On the bright side, serious delinquencies are declining (in sharp contrast to the previous housing bubble).
8. Railroad crisis averted. This is a relief as roughly 27% of US freight is transported by rail.
9. Freight rates. "Freight rates (part of PPI) for deep sea transportation (orange) continue to soar while those for air (white), rail (purple), and truck (blue) have either leveled off or rolled over slightly".
10. Sticky inflation. The Atlanta Fed's core sticky CPI is "increasing at 6% y/y, fastest rate since 1982".
11. Resilient labor market. From BofA: "Clearly rising prices have been painful, but thus far the labor market seems to be more than offsetting the shock."
12. Import/Export prices. US import prices (led by lower fuel and nonfuel prices) decreased by 1% in August while export prices (led by lower agricultural and nonagricultural prices) decreased by 1.6% in August.
13. Retail sales (I). Sales in the US increased by 0.3% in August after July’s sales were revised down to -0.4% (from unchanged). Retail sales are up 9.1% year-over-year.
14. Retail sales (II). Nominal retail sales are up but shoppers are getting less bang for their buck.
15. Retail sales (III). Retail sales month-over-month change by category.
16. Initial jobless claims. "Initial jobless claims continued their reversal from [what] had been an almost relentless uptrend from spring through early August".
17. Philly Fed Manufacturing (I). The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index contracted unexpectedly in September, falling -9.9 (vs. +2.8 expected). Future general activity improved but remains negative.
18. Philly Fed Manufacturing (II). "The prices paid index declined for the fifth consecutive month" for the "lowest reading since December 2020".
19. Empire State Manufacturing (I). General business conditions in New York climbed to -1.5 in September from -31.3 last month.
20. Empire State Manufacturing (II). Current indicators.
21. Empire State Manufacturing (III). Current indicators, continued.
22. Empire State Manufacturing (IV). Forward-looking (6 months) indicators.
23. Empire State Manufacturing (V). Forward-looking (6 months) indicators, continued.
24. Industrial production. Industrial production dropped unexpectedly in August, declining by 0.2% (vs. +0.1% expected).
25. Tail risks. Global fund managers list persistently high inflation as the biggest economic tail risk.
26. Growth > Value. During the current selloff, "pure growth factor has been outperforming pure value factor (blue), which is different from prior periods of weakness this year".
27. Expensive defense. The forward price-to-earnings spread between Utilities and the S&P 500 is at its widest since 1990.
28. Shorts (I). "Leveraged funds and assets managers remain net short on the S&P 500".
29. Shorts (II). From Goldman: "Current short exposure is high but not yet at extreme levels especially when compared with longer-dated history".
30. 2023 EPS revisions. And finally, since the start of Q3, 2023 earnings have been revised down for all sectors but energy and utilities.
