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Daily Chartbook #41

www.dailychartbook.com

Daily Chartbook #41

Catch up on the day in 29 charts

Daily Chartbook
Sep 15, 2022
7
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Daily Chartbook #41

www.dailychartbook.com

Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: macro market charts, data, and insights pulled from various sources around the Internet by a solo retail investor.


1. Record renewables. A record 24% of US power generation came from renewables in the first half of 2022.

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@mikezaccardi

2. Record natural gas consumption. The US will also consume more natural gas than ever in 2022, according to EIA's forecast.

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@mikezaccardi

3. US petroleum inventory levels. Stocks for total petroleum, crude, gasoline, and distillate for the week ending September 9.

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@roryjohnston

4. Oil price forecast. Goldman Sachs sees prices for Brent reaching $130 a barrel in 2023.

Isabelnet

5. Global tightening. Global financial conditions are tightening.

Goldman Sachs via TME

6. Global profits outlook. Fund managers expect global profits to fall over the next 12 months and "are more negative about the profit outlook than at any time in the 25-year history of the survey."

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BofA via @dimartinobooth

7. Recession odds (I). Global fund managers still believe we are headed into a recession.

BofA via Isabelnet

8. Recession odds (II). From Goldman (on the US): "For now, we see recession odds of 30% over the next 12 months".

Goldman Sachs via TME

9. EPS vs. economic growth. Again, from Goldman: “If a recession unfolds in 2023, S&P 500 EPS would fall by 11% (vs. growth of 3%).

Goldman Sachs via TME

10. Small biz (I). "63% of small businesses have paused hiring, largely in real estate, autos, healthcare, retail, finance, and manufacturing".

Markets & Mayhem via TME


11. Small biz (II). The "percentage of small businesses with positive earnings trends continues to plunge and is firmly recessionary".

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@lizannsonders

12. CPI surprise. "In the last 18 months CPI inflation has surprised to the upside 10 times and to the downside only twice".

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@mikezaccardi

13. Inflation forecast. Goldman has core inflation ending "2022 at 6.1% and 2023 at 2.9%"

Isabelnet

14. PPI divergence. For the second month in a row in August, producer prices for final demand in the US fell (-0.1%, in-line) while core prices increased (+0.4% vs. +0.3% expected).

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@gregdaco

15. Gradual disinflation. Producer prices have rolled over year-over-year.

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@gregdaco

16. PPI breakdown (I). Month-over-month change of topline and sub-component contributors.

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@zerohedge

17. PPI breakdown (II). Year-over-year change of topline contributors.

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@m_mcdonough

18. PPI breakdown (III). Year-over-year change of top 5 sub-component contributors.

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@m_mcdonough

19. Personal Consumption Expenditures price forecast. BofA expects core PCE (due at the end of the month) to increase 0.4% in August.

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@mikezaccardi

20. Supply-constrained categories. The impact on core PCE inflation from supply-constrained categories is diminishing.

Goldman Sachs via TME

21. It's different this time. Yield inversions typically precede the end of Fed tightening cycles.

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@michaelaarouet

22. US2Y. "2-year US Treasury yields are now at their highest level since 2007 as speculative investors positioning themselves for more pain to come."

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@lvieweconomics

23. S&P sell-off. Yesterday was the worst day for the S&P "since June 2020 and the ninth-worst 1-day loss in the past 10 years."

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@samro

24. Big tech sell-off. And every single stock in the Nasdaq 100 closed red for the first time since March 2020.

Every single stock on the Nasdaq 100 closed in the red on Tuesday
Bloomberg

25. BTFD. But retail investors were active and bought the dip to the tune of $2 billion.

relates to Stock Rout Spurs $2 Billion in Dip Buying by Retail Investors
Bloomberg

26. Short covering Info Tech. Hedge funds have been covering short positions against Information Technology. According to Goldman, they have been net buyers in 12 out of the last 14 days.

Goldman Sachs via TME

27. Zombies. "Tighter monetary policy has had an adverse effect on zombie companies which have lagged broader market by >10% YTD".

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@lizannsonders

28. Energy stocks. From Goldman: "With confidence in durability of commodity prices prices, we see potential for Energy market-cap weighting within S&P 500 to further increase".

Goldman Sachs via TME

29. Rates & earnings. And finally, from Kantro: "The longer rates stay high, the longer we’ll see downside momentum to earnings revisions. If earnings estimates for 2023 ($244) don’t change, there is only a 2% gain into year end from EPS from current NTM estimates. Anything beyond that must come from P/E expansion".

Kantro via TME
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