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Daily Chartbook #40

www.dailychartbook.com

Daily Chartbook #40

Catch up on the day in 27 charts

Daily Chartbook
Sep 14, 2022
14
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Daily Chartbook #40

www.dailychartbook.com

Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: macro market charts, data, and insights pulled from various sources around the Internet by a solo retail investor.


1. Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Last week, the White House made its biggest ever release since the creation of the SPR with 8.4 million barrels sold.

Bloomberg

2. Railroads (I). "Railroads are already seeing delays. With a possible worker strike starting Friday 16 Sep, things can only get worse".

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@ayeshatariq

3. Railroads (II). "A strike would threaten shipments of grains, fertilizer and energy when global food prices are elevated and inflation ripples through economies".

Bloomberg

4. Recession talk. The frequency of the topic of "recession" in the news has declined but remains very high.

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@wallstjesus

5. Consumer expectations. "Consumers’ expectations for income growth (blue) has climbed to new high, while expectations for home price growth (orange) have plummeted".

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@lizannsonders

6. Headline & core inflation (I). Both headline and core inflation came in hotter than expected, rising by 0.1% (vs. -0.1% expected) and 0.6% (vs. 0.3% expected), respectively.

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@lizannsonders

7. Headline & core inflation (II). Headline and core inflation are now 8.3% and 6.3% YoY, respectively.

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@lizannsonders

8. Topline contributors to inflation. A big drop in energy prices was overwhelmed by an increase in all other categories.

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@m_mcdonough

9. Inflation subcomponents. Breakdown of MoM percent change in top 5 subcomponents.

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@m_mcdonough

10. Big drop in energy prices. The energy component declined by 5.5% YoY in August, the "largest contraction since April 2020".

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@lizannsonders


11. Food inflation. The food component rose by 11.4% YoY in August, the "fastest rate since April 1979".

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@lizannsonders

12. OER inflation. The owners' equivalent rent (OER) component rose by 6.3% YoY in August, the "fastest increase since April 1986".

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@lizannsonders

13. Inflation by category. Year-over-year change for select CPI categories.

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@stackersatoshi

14. Biggest problem. Inflation was still the single biggest problem for small businesses in August by a wide margin.

NFIB

15. CPI vs. Fed. In the past, the Fed has hiked interest rates beyond the rate of inflation to reel in prices.

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@ryandetrick

16. Market expectations. “The market is now pricing in Fed rate hikes to 4.25%-4.50% by the first quarter of next year, then rate cuts in the back half of 2023 and more cuts in 2024”.

@charliebilello

17. 100 bps? After today’s inflation print markets put a 33% probability on a full percentage-point increase in rates.

CME Group

18. Net buyers. "Last week, during which the S&P 500 was +3.6%, clients were net buyers of US equities ($3.8B) for the first time in four weeks, with flows into both stocks & ETFs."

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@mikezaccardi

19. Light positioning. Systematic (blue) and discretionary (green) equity positioning are in the 9th and 13th percentiles, respectively.

Isabelnet

20. Risk-off. "Most market sentiment indicators remain risk-off".

Isabelnet

21. Macro options. "Index options continue rising while single stock options continue falling".

Goldman Sachs via TME

22. Global Fund Managers (I). More fund managers are underweight global equities than ever.

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@callum_thomas

23. Global Fund Managers (II). Fund managers "are short equities and long Cash."

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@theshortbear via @callum_thomas

24. Global Fund Managers (III). “Long US dollar remains the most crowded trade.”

BofA via TME

25. Global Fund Managers (IV). Fund managers also see the USD as the most overvalued on record. Conversely, they see other currencies as the most undervalued on record.

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@callum_thomas

26. Global Fund Managers (V). "Highest amount of cash as percentage of the assets under management since 2000".

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Daily Shot via @theshortbear

27. Global Fund Managers (VI). And finally, "the risk appetite is at the lowest level seen in 20+ years, even lower than the 2008 crash".

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Daily Shot via @theshortbear
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