Daily Chartbook #39
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Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: macro market charts, data, and insights pulled from various sources around the Internet by a solo retail investor.
1. EU energy dependence. European reliance on Russian gas has declined in the second half of 2022.
2. Oil: low liquidity. Open interest in crude oil futures is about half what it was 5 years ago
3. Oil bulls. Investors surveyed by Bloomberg are still bullish energy.
4. Hot housing markets cool. Home prices in the world's hottest markets are coming down
5. CPI estimates (I). With inflation data due tomorrow, here are a couple of estimates. “Morgan Stanley is estimating a negative month-over-month CPI print for August due to lower fuel prices”.
6. CPI estimates (II). Nomura expects housing to keep core inflation elevated.
7. Consumer inflation expectations. Expectations for one-, three-, and five-year inflation have declined significantly.
8. Supply chain snarls. "Supply chain pressures continue with dwell times increasing across the US".
9. Net worth is down, but… Recall Friday’s chart noting a $6.1 trillion Q2 loss for household net worth. "Despite rolling over in 2Q22, household net worth as a % of disposable personal income is still clocking in at 778%".
10. US Leading Indicator. From Jeffries: "We have hardly ever seen a reading below 99 without a recession, so the current level isn’t exactly rosy".
11. Recession probability. Goldman estimates a 30% probability of the US entering a recession in a year
12. Recessions & EPS. Earnings per share experienced a median decline of 13% during previous recessions.
13. Q3 EPS outlook (I). 61% of "companies have issued negative EPS guidance for Q3 2022, which is slightly above the 5-year average of 60%".
14. Q3 EPS outlook (II). "Analysts have decreased EPS estimates for [S&P 500] companies for Q3 by 5.5% since June 30, which is above the 5-year average of 2.3% for a quarter".
15. Q3 EPS outlook (III). The S&P 500 "is expected to report Y/Y earnings growth of 3.7% for Q3 2022, which would be the lowest growth since Q3 2020 (-5.7%)".
16. Valuation compression. The S&P 500's forward price-to-earnings "multiple compressed by 27% from 21x in January to 17x today".
17. Small vs. Large. Small caps remain historically cheap relative to large caps
18. Record profit margins. "S&P 500 net margins will reach record high in 2022".
19. Bearish positioning (I). "CFTC S&P 500 net non-commercial futures positions, an indicator of directional short positions, have reached levels last seen during previous downturns in 2008, 2011, 2015 & 2020".
20. Bearish positioning (II). Investor positioning is down to extremely light levels.
21. Forced buying. Short covering was a big contributor to last week's rally.
22. Getting defensive. Mutual fund cash levels are up.
23. Bonds: worst year ever. "The US bond market is on pace for its worst year in history with a loss of 11.6%".
24. Is the bottom in (I)? Respondents to a Deutsche Bank investor survey “think we'll see 5% 10-year Treasury yields before 1% yields”.
25. Is the bottom in (II)? Less than 10% of the same respondents believe the S&P 500 has reached its bottom.
26. Broad rally. “Over the past three sessions, an average of more than 87% of S&P 500 stocks have advanced. That's the 2nd-highest rate in [five] years”.
27. Panic/Euphoria Index. And finally, John Authers on Citi's Levkovich Index (sentiment indicator): "Current levels imply a 95% probability of positive return over the next 12 months".
