Daily Chartbook

Share this post

Daily Chartbook #36

www.dailychartbook.com

Daily Chartbook #36

Catch up on the day in 28 charts

Daily Chartbook
Sep 8, 2022
6
Share this post

Daily Chartbook #36

www.dailychartbook.com

Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: macro market charts, data, and insights pulled from various sources around the Internet by a solo retail investor.


1. OPEC. Revenues for OPEC members will grow ~50% from 2021 this year but are expected to decline in 2023.

EIA

2. SPR. "The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve back at its lowest level since 1984."

Image
@lvieweconomics

3. MBA Refinance. The mortgage refinance index decreased to 556.40 and is at its lowest since 2000.

Calculated Risk

4. MBA Applications. Mortgage applications declined for the 4th consecutive week. There have only been "10 positive readings since the beginning of 2022".

Image
@kathyjones

5. MBA Purchase. The purchase index fell to 197.80 and "is now only 8% above the pandemic low".

Calculated Risk

6. Affordability (or lack thereof). The monthly payment on a 30-year mortgage—with 20% down—for the average existing home is back at highs of $1,960 per month.

Image
@m_mcdonough

7. Home price expectations. Consumers expect home prices to fall over the next 12 months for the first time in 2 years.

Bloomberg

8. Supply chain improvement. Global shipping rates continue declining.

JPM via TME

9. Balance of trade. The US trade deficit narrowed to $70.6 billion in July. Exports and imports are up 21% and 16% YoY, respectively.

BEA

10. GDP estimates. GPD growth estimates for Q3 (blue) and Q4 (orange) "have been cut over past couple months and are relatively underwhelming for now".

Image
@lizannsonders


11. Q3 GDP. Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate was slashed from 2.6% (September 1) to 1.4%.

Atlanta Fed

12. Gold vs. Copper. "The gold-to-copper price ratio is [in] the neutral zone".

Isabelnet

13. Fed funds futures implied rate. Markets are expecting interest rates to stay higher for longer.

Bloomberg

14. Treasuries rally. "The 1-Year, 2-Year and 3-Year US Treasury yields are at their highest levels since 2007 and 2008."

Image
@cperruna

15. Supply-driven inflation. Commodities and small businesses' price plans point to lower CPI.

TS Lombard via TME

16. ISM & positioning. Based on the strong correlation with ISM manufacturing (67%) discretionary investor positioning is light.

Isabelnet

17. Large outflows. From BofA: "Last week, during which the S&P 500 fell 3.3%, BofA Securities clients were net sellers of US equities (-$1.9B) for a third straight week (largest outflows since June)".

Image
@mikezaccardi

18. Smart money. "22% of large-cap active managers have outperformed the S&P 500 yoy".

Image
@mikezaccardi

19. Bearish positioning. Massive short positions are not showing signs of letting up.

Image
@lanceroberts

20. Downgrades. "Analysts’ earnings downgrades have exceeded upgrades for 13 weeks in a row."

The Daily Shot

21. EPS trend. As a reminder, S&P earnings have been running hot for some time now.

IBES via TME

22. ERP (I). "The S&P 500 Equity Risk Premium is near post GFC lows".

Isabelnet

23. ERP (II). TINA (There Is No Alternative) to US equities.

Image
Topdown Charts via @mikezaccardi

24. DXY and SPX. With the dollar near its highest levels in more than 20 years, here's a chart showing the S&P's (red, inverted) tight correlation with the USD (blue).

Image
@northmantrader

25. DXY and EPS. This chart shows the strong correlation between a rising dollar (blue) and negative earnings revisions (red).

@macroalf

26. Oversold. "The last two times the market was this oversold was the COVID Crash and the Great Financial Crisis."

Image
@mayhem4markets

27. Growth vs. Value. On a PEG basis, growth stocks are expensive relative to value stocks.

Goldman Sachs via TME

28. Record panic. And finally, “last week’s panic hedging was 3x more extreme than in 2008”.

@govttrader
Share this post

Daily Chartbook #36

www.dailychartbook.com
Comments
TopNewCommunity

No posts

Ready for more?

© 2023 Daily Chartbook
Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Start WritingGet the app
Substack is the home for great writing