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Daily Chartbook #35

www.dailychartbook.com

Daily Chartbook #35

Catch up on the day in 27 charts

Daily Chartbook
Sep 7, 2022
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Daily Chartbook #35

www.dailychartbook.com

Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: macro market charts, data, and insights pulled from various sources around the Internet by a solo retail investor.


1. Food is still expensive. "Global food prices are down 14% from the peak".

True Insights via TME

2. Eurozone PMI. Eurozone productivity dropped to 46.6 in August for the sharpest contraction since June 2020.

SP Global

3. ASEAN PMI. Meanwhile, manufacturing remains strong in Southeast Asia.

SP Global

4. JPMorgan Global Composite PMI (I). The index fell to 49.3 in August as global activity contracted for the first time since June 2020.

SP Global

5. JPMorgan Global Composite PMI (II). Manufacturing and services output both declined.

SP Global

6. JPMorgan Global Compositve PMI (III). The Business Activity Index shows both business and consumer services in contraction.

SP Global

7. Developed market output. "For the first time since early 2020, all four largest developed economies reported falling output."

Chris Williamson

8. ISM US Services (I). ISM Services PMI grew unexpectedly in August to 56.9. It was the strongest growth in 4 months.

ISM

9. ISM US Services (II). Business activity, new orders, employment, supplier deliveries, inventories, and prices

ISM

10. ISM US Services (III). Backlog of orders, new export orders, imports, and inventory sentiment

ISM


11. S&P Global US Services. S&P Global’s services business activity index, on the other hand, was revised lower to 43.7 in August (from 44.1). It was the sharpest contraction since May 2020

SP Global

12. ISM vs S&P Global. A look at the divergence between the two indexes.

Image
@jeffweniger

13. Soft landing? From Goldman: "The U.S. economy remains on a (narrow) path to a soft landing".

Image
@gunjanjs

14. Intraday volatility. The S&P 500 experienced an intraday reversal on Friday greater than 2 percentage points to finish down. Previous such reversals have typically preceded further losses.

Intraday reverals like Friday's in S&P 500 tend to presage more losses
Bloomberg

15. Expectations. “The current S&P 500 valuation suggests that equity investors should expect 4%/year over the next 10 years.”

Isabelnet

16. S&P EPS estimates. Morgan Stanley expects earnings of $225 in 2022 and $236 in 2023, implying ~5% growth

Isabelnet

17. Earnings outlook. "For Q3 2022, 62 S&P 500 companies have issued negative EPS guidance and 40 S&P 500 company has issued positive EPS guidance".

Image
@mikezaccardi

18. Midterm seasonality. Historically, the October before midterm elections is bullish for the S&P 500.

Isabelnet

19. Valuations by sector. Sector forward P/E ratios compared to their 5- and 10-year averages.

Image
@mikezaccardi

20. Shrimps’ share. The share of Bitcoin held by smaller market participants has been growing.

Financial Times

21. Sentiment. Bearish sentiment has increased across assets.

Goldman Sachs via TME

22. Awful breadth. "The percentage of stocks trading above their 50 day moving average [green line] has collapsed".

Tier1Alpha via TME

23. Insider activity. "Corporate insiders jump out: in August, ratio of insider selling to buying rose to highest since February … 2,119 executives hit sell button, most since November 2021 on net basis".

Image
@lizannsonders

24. Puts up (I). Put volumes have spiked for indexes, single stocks, and ETPs (exchange-traded products).

Deutsche Bank via TME

25. Puts up (II). "Institutions have loaded up on stock puts recently."

Nomura via TME

26. Relative safety. “Investors have added money to U.S. equity-focused stock and mutual funds for four of the past six weeks...while yanking money from international stock funds for 20 consecutive weeks. That’s the longest streak since a 22-week run of outflows that ended in October 2019.”

WSJ

27. Passive ownership. And finally, passive investors are estimated to own 37.8% of stocks—or $16 trillion worth.

Bloomberg

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Daily Chartbook #35

www.dailychartbook.com
1 Comment
TheGodfatherBaritone
Sep 7, 2022

I think passive investors are estimated to own 22.9% of stocks in 2021 if I'm reading that correctly.

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