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Daily Chartbook #33

www.dailychartbook.com

Daily Chartbook #33

Catch up on the day in 27+ charts

Daily Chartbook
Sep 2, 2022
8
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Daily Chartbook #33

www.dailychartbook.com

Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: macro market charts, data, and insights pulled from various sources around the Internet by a solo retail investor.

Programming note: Daily Chartbook will be off Monday, September 5.


1. Gas prices (I). "Front-month gasoline futures are now below where they were on Election Day 2021".

Image
@conorsen

2. Gas prices (II). The year-to-date change in gas prices is now below the average year’s change since 2005.

Bespoke via TME

3. US inventories. Total oil and crude stocks remain well below their 5-year ranges.

Image
@dlacalle_IA

4. Car inflation. "Key conclusion: pricing continues trending up, discounts are mostly stable on low levels".

Bernstein via TME

5. Labor market pressure. The unemployment rate is expected to rise in 2023.

Isabelnet

6. Challenger cuts. US companies announced plans to cut 20,485 jobs in August, the lowest reading in six months. This chart shows "+30.3% y/y vs. +36.3% in prior month; third consecutive increase, with tech sector leading all industries (5,081 cuts in August); so far this year, tech companies have announced 14,408 cuts".

Image
@lizannsonders

7. Headline CPI forecasts. Potential pathways for headline CPI, according to JPMorgan.

Isabelnet

8. Peak PCE inflation. According to Goldman Sachs, peak core PCE inflation is behind us. They are forecasting 4.2% in December 2022, 2.6% in December 2023, and 2.3% in December 2024.

Goldman via TME

9. Nonfarm productivity (I). "Slight improvement in 2Q22 revision for unit labor costs (+10.2% q/q vs. +10.8% initial) and productivity (-4.1% q/q vs. -4.6% initial)".

Image
@lizannsonders

10. Nonfarm productivity (II). Nonfarm business sector labor productivity decreased by 4.1% in Q2 and fell 2.4% YoY which is the lowest in the data series going back to 1948.

BLS


11. Global manufacturing (I). From Michael Kantro: "I’m forecasting that this will be the month where more than 50% of global manufacturing PMIs will contract (below 50). As of last month it was 42%. That’s equally weighted, not GDP weighted. GDP weighted we are already there".

Michael Kantro via TME

12. Global manufacturing (II). "Global manufacturing new orders, share of countries with PMI above 50".

Image
@michaelaarouet

13. S&P Global US Manufacturing. PMI was revised to 51.5 from 51.3, but the reading is still the “lowest since July 2020 amid further loss of new orders”.

SP Global

14. ISM Manufacturing (I). US manufacturing expanded at the same pace as last month, registering 52.8% on the purchasing managers’ index

ISM

15. ISM Manufacturing (II). New orders, production, and employment.

ISM

16. ISM Manufacturing (III). Supplier deliveries and inventories.

ISM

17. ISM Manufacturing (IV). Customers’ inventories, prices, and backlog of orders.

ISM

18. ISM Manufacturing (V). What respondents are saying.

Image
@gregdaco

19. “Wake me up when September ends”. Here's the average performance of benchmarks in September (2001-2021).

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@almanactrader

20. Rule of 20. “The rule of 20 (P/E + CPI) still suggests that U.S.equities are overvalued.”

Isabelnet

21. S&P 500 EPS up & P/E down. "S&P 500’s forward 12m EPS (blue) rebounded in August while forward 12m P/E (orange) plunged, largely continuing this year’s pattern".

Image
@lizannsonders

22. Stocks & bonds (I). "The correlation between stocks and bonds over the last 2 years is the highest we've seen since 1995-1997".

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@charliebilello

23. Stocks & bonds (II). "The last 8 times the S&P 500 was down in a calendar year, Bonds finished the year up, cushioning the blow." This time around has proven very different.

Image
@charliebilello

24. Bond rout. "US Bonds are down 11.6% over the last 2 years, their worst 2-year return in history."

Image
@charliebilello

25. Inverse fund flows. On Tuesday, investors added a net $154.4 million to the inverse S&P 500 ETF $SH. It was "the largest one-day increase since April 2020".

Inverse S&P 500 ETF sees biggest inflow since 2020
Bloomberg

26. The Jackson Hole effect. This year’s decline of 5.5% (from Thursday’s close before JH) “ranks as the second most negative since at least 1994, falling short of just 1998 when the S&P 500 declined by 5.8%”.

Bespoke

27. Big swings. And finally, the S&P 500 this year has seen the highest number of large (>1%) intraday swings since 2008.

LPL Research
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Daily Chartbook #33

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