Daily Chartbook #32
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Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: macro market charts, data, and insights pulled from various sources around the Internet by a solo retail investor.
1. Mortgage purchase index. “The purchase index is now only 9% above the pandemic low.”
2. Refinances plunge. The mortgage refinancing index has hit its lowest level since 2000.
3. Rates shock. "The economic shock of ~6% mortgage rates in 2022 is hitting a lot harder than ~5% rates did in 2018."
4. Food prices. Global food prices have come down off extreme levels but are still historically elevated.
5. Travel slowdown. With revenge travel trips behind them, Americans plan to slow their pace of travel in 2023.
6. Consumer confidence & spending. From JPMorgan: "Headline inflation has started to moderate, easing the drag on consumers’ purchasing power and lifting sentiment .. The relationship between DM consumer spending and confidence has decoupled since the pandemic, but we anticipate some improvement .. this quarter ..".
7. Inflation expectations on the rise. "Chart of the ICE U.S. Dollar Inflation Expectation Indexes. There's certainly been an upward shift in the last month in inflation expectations with the curve inching up."
8. Chicago Business Barometer. Chicago PMI was relatively unchanged in August, moving up marginally to 52.2.
9. National Financial Conditions Index. The Chicago NFCI "ticked down to –0.27 in the week ending August 26, suggesting financial conditions loosened".
10. Labor market tightness. BofA on JOLTs: "The story here is that workers are getting rehired quickly, preventing an accumulation of continuing claims. For every lay-off, there is an abundance of new job prospects."
11. ADP Payrolls (I). "Private jobs grew by 132,000 this month, smallest since January 2021".
12. ADP Payrolls (II). "US Private Employment levels are back at pre-pandemic highs".
13. ADP Payrolls (III). Workers are being rewarded for switching jobs.
14. ADP Payrolls (IV). Payroll changes by industry.
15. Global GDP estimates. Estimates for growth in the UK, US, Canada, Eurozone, and Japan continue declining.
16. Room to fall (I). Goldman's risk appetite and momentum factors have room to fall to the downside.
17. Room to fall (II). The average percentage of sentiment indicators suggests the same.
18. Room to fall (III). As do flows into risky vs. safe asset funds.
19. Corporate flows. Corporate America was the biggest net buyer of stocks last week while hedge funds led the outflows
20. Buybacks. While announced buybacks dropped off recently, actual stock repurchases accelerated last week.
21. Fund flows. The cumulative funds flow chart "shows that equity flow [light blue] has not even started to break down".
22. Equity allocations (I). Mutual funds' allocation to stocks is still well above recessionary levels.
23. Equity allocations (II). The same goes for retail investors.
24. Global EPS estimates. 2023 earnings estimates for the UK, US, Canada, Eurozone, and Japan are converging.
25. S&P EPS. History suggests further negative earnings revisions ahead
26. EPS revisions (I). Energy and Utilities have been the only sectors to enjoy positive revisions to 2022 earnings since the end of June.
27. EPS revisions (II). "Earnings estimates continue to be revised lower for Q3 and Q4".
28. Broad weakness. Many sectors have rolled over their 50-day moving averages (red line).
29. Which doesn’t come at the best time... And finally, as a reminder, September is historically a poor month for stocks.
