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Daily Chartbook #30

www.dailychartbook.com

Daily Chartbook #30

Catch up on the day in 27 charts

Daily Chartbook
Aug 30, 2022
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Daily Chartbook #30

www.dailychartbook.com

Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: macro market charts, data, and insights pulled from various sources around the Internet by a solo retail investor.


1. Global hawks. "More than 80 central banks have hiked rates this year."

Bloomberg

2. Don’t expect a pivot. US newspaper use of “dovish” vs “hawkish”.

@wallstjesus

3. DXY vs. Oil. "For most of first half of this year, U.S. dollar (DXY, blue) and oil prices (Brent,  orange) were positively correlated (120d shown), but relationship has dipped back into negative territory".

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@lizannsonders

4. Market-implied recession probabilities. Commodities are pricing a recession more aggressively than any other asset class.

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@wallstjesus

5. GDPNow. The AtlantaFed's GDPNow model is now estimating 1.6% growth for GDP in Q3.

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@isabelnet_sa

6. Dallas Fed (I). The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index improved to -12.9 in August but remains in negative (contraction) territory.

Trading Economics

7. Dallas Fed (II). The production index (below)—which measures manufacturing conditions—declined to 1.2 while new orders (a leading indicator) remained negative for the 3rd month in a row.

Dallas Fed

8. Housing inventory & stocks. "Changes in new home inventories lead changes in equities.  Higher inventories have tended to imply lower equities 6m later. This is one of the largest increases we have seen in inventories in 60 years…"

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@ianrharnett

9. Death of the holding period. "In the 1960s, the typical investor held a stock in its portfolio for about 7-8 years on average. Today, we are looking at 4-5 months."

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@macroalf

10. US vs. World (I). This chart shows the price vs trailing 10-year average earnings for the US and 46 other countries. "Relative to the past decade, both the USA and the rest of the world are still not cheap."

The Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm


11. US vs. World (II). This chart shows a large divergence in the forward P/E for the US vs. the All Country World ex-US index.

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@mikezaccardi

12. S&P buybacks. Announced buybacks have slowed down over the last 3 months.

Isabelnet

13. Underweight Big Tech (I). "The average mutual fund added 154 bp of exposure to the 7 Big Tech stocks in Q2." META 0.00 AAPL 0.00 TSLA 0.00 MSFT 0.00 AMZN 0.00 NVDA 0.00 GOOGL 0.00  

FactSet via TME

14. Underweight Big Tech (II). Mutual funds are the most underweight Apple AAPL 0.00 which has been the only stock of the seven to outperform the S&P 500.

Goldman via TME

15. VIP "shit-list". Both mutual fund overweight stocks and hedge fund VIP stocks have been underperforming. "Here is the combined list of the stocks that are on both these 'VIP shit-lists'".

Goldman via TME

16. Big shorts. Hedge fund short positions in S&P futures last week hit their highest since June 2020.

WSJ

17. Bond outflows. "Retail investors have pulled a substantial amount of capital out of bond funds this year."

EPFR Global Navigator via Daily Shot

18. Financial inflows. Financials saw their biggest inflows since January after 14 consecutive weeks of outflows.

Isabelnet

19. No capitulation. Flows into major stock ETFs have not reflected capitulation yet.

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@macrocharts

20. Cash levels. BofA's private clients are holding less cash than usual.

BofA via TME

21. They’re not selling either. BofA's private clients’ holdings as a % of AUM show investors are not selling off.

BofA via TME

22. Goldman forecast. Goldman Sachs' 2022 price target for the S&P is at 4,300 and its 2023 earnings forecast calls for an optimistic $234 EPS.

Isabelnet

23. EPS estimates (I). Earnings estimates for Q3 and 2023 are declining rapidly (and broadly).

Mr. Blonde

24. EPS estimates (II). Mike Wilson's (Morgan Stanley) leading earnings model agrees and "projects a steep fall in EPS growth over the next several months".

MS via TME

25. Capitulation. "The stage is set for another round of capitulation".

Mr. Blonde

26. Late for defense. "Defensives are the most expensive vs SPX since the late 90s".

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@mikezaccardi

27. S&P operating EPS. And finally, “with 96% of companies reported, S&P 500 operating earnings are down 9% year-over-year, the largest YoY decline we've seen since Q2 2020. Earnings during the quarter were down 17% from their peak in Q4 2021 and the S&P 500 is currently down 15% YTD.”

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@charliebilello

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Daily Chartbook #30

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