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Daily Chartbook #290
Catch up on the day in 30 charts
Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: the day’s best charts & insights, curated.
1. Pending home sales. August sales fell 7.1% MoM (worst drop since September 2022), pushing sales down to their Covid lows (worst on record).
2. Median monthly mortgage. Median monthly new homebuyer payments are at a record $2,666 (at 7.19% mortgage rate).
3. Mortgage rates. "Average interest rate on a 30 year mortgage rises to 7.83%, its highest since October 2000."
4. Used car prices. "While average used vehicle values have moderated from the peak in January 2022, they remain about 40% above year-end 2019 levels as of September 2023."
5. Bankruptcies vs. credit conditions. Underlying credit conditions are not reflecting the rise in bankruptcy filings, which are at levels previously associated with a recession.
6. Card spending. “After a solid summer, spending appears to have decelerated post Labor Day.”
7. Real consumer spending. Personal consumption was revised down sharply to 0.8% from 1.7%. It was the first sub-1% print since September 2020.
8. Jobless claims. Initial jobless claims ticked up (well below expectations) but remain near 7-month lows. Continuing claims similarly increased less than expected and remain near 8-month lows.
9. Kansas City Manufacturing. The” index dropped 8pts to -8. New orders dropped 11, production dropped 25. The # employees rose 1 and the work week rose 6. Prices paid dropped 6 and prices while prices received rose 8 (higher margins?).”
10. Cushing inventories. "Stockpiles tumbled below 22 million barrels last week to the lowest since July 2022."
11. Oil supply & demand. "JP Morgan forecasts an increasing supply deficit of 1.1 million barrels per day by 2025 and 7.1 million barrels per day by 2030."
12. US10Y vs. inflation. "Sustained US inflation above the long-term average 10-year Treasury yield has only occurred around wars and energy shocks."
13. CTAs vs. bonds. "We have $319 Billion worth of bonds to buy in an up 2std dev tape over the next month and we have $64 Billion worth of bonds to buy in a down 2.5std dev tape over the next one month."
14. Stocks vs. bonds (I). Bloomberg's 60/40 index "dropped back below its 200-day moving average...for the first time since the turn of the year."
15. Stocks vs. bonds (II). "Very high stock/bond correlations, such as we have now, are an anomaly and should therefore decline relatively soon."
16. Retail investor sentiment (I). Fewest AAII bulls and most bears since May.
17. Retail investor sentiment (II). “Having a bearish outlook is gaining traction (possibly consensus?), having doubled since July ...bears now outnumber bulls ~1.5x to 1.”
18. Retail investor performance. "We estimate retail investors’ performance at +8.9%YTD, underperforming the S&P 500 (+11.3%)."
19. Investor flows. "Large-cap U.S. equity ETFs had inflows again last week but less strong compared to prior week (still accounting for good chunk of overall flows on 1m basis) ... government ETFs represent only 13% of flows, down from >20% in prior week."
20. Investment advisor sentiment. The Investor Intelligence Bull/Bear ratio dropped to 1.83 from 2.13.
21. Active manager exposure. The NAAIM Exposure Index declined to 43 from 54.
22. Put/call ratio. The equity put/call ratio has been trending higher in H2.
23. CTAs vs. equities. "We estimate -$48 Billion of global stocks for sale in flat tape over the next week, and -$64B for sale over the next one month in a flat tape. This is very front loaded to the next 1 week."
24. HF net leverage. "Since the end of July, Overall Book and Fundamental L/S Net leverage have seen cumulative declines of approx. -5 pts and -6.5 pts, respectively."
25. HFs vs. Discretionary (I). "Short selling in US Consumer Discretionary stocks since the start of August is the largest over any 40-day period since Q1 '22 and ranks in the 96th percentile vs. the past five years."
26. HFs vs. Discretionary (II). "US Consumer Discretionary sector long/short ratio now stands at 1.66 (vs. 1.82 at the start of August), which is in the 10th percentile vs. the past year and in the 6th percentile vs. the past five years."
27. Nasdaq actual volatility. "The [Nasdaq] is still only experiencing average volatility because correlations are low, especially for its top 3 holdings [Google, Apple, Microsoft] that make up nearly a third of the index. That means some tech stocks are zigging while others are zagging."
28. SPX valuation. "Our models indicate valuations could be held back by higher for longer rates and mega caps are bloated, but the equal weighted S&P 500 index is trading at a multiple below prepandemic norm."
29. SPX vs. 200DMA. "All eyes on S&P 500 200dma of 4195. If that level is tested and doesn’t provide support history suggests S&P 500 forward 1-/3-/6-/12-month returns are significantly below-average following a break in its 200dma."
30. Bullish momentum. And finally, “38.6% of large cap stocks have a bullish momentum divergence. Getting close to 40%, which has been historically significant level.”
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