Daily Chartbook #29

Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: macro market charts, data, and insights pulled from various sources around the Internet by a solo retail investor.

1. Big tech & you. Which companies have the most data on you?

2. Q3 GDP. BofA is estimating 0.5% US GDP growth for the third quarter.

3. Goods Trade Balance. The trade deficit narrowed further in July to $89.1 billion "vs. $98.5 billion est. & $98.6 billion in prior month (rev from $98.2 billion)".

4. Personal Consumption Expenditure (I). Headline PCE fell by 0.1% in July and is up 6.3% YoY while core PCE increased by 0.1% (vs. 0.3% expected) and is up 4.6% YoY.

5. Personal Consumption Expenditure (II). Headline PCE declined MoM for the first time since April 2020.

6. Personal Consumption Expenditure (III). Topline contributors YoY.

7. Personal Consumption Expenditure (IV). Top 5 subcomponent contributors YoY.

8. Personal Consumption Expenditure (V). Top 5 subcomponent contributors MoM.

9. Personal Income & Consumer Spending. Personal income rose 0.2% in July (vs. 0.6% expected) while consumer spending increased 0.1% (vs. 0.4% expected).

10. Consumer spending (I). Here's the breakdown of consumer spending.

11. Consumer spending (II). Further breakdown: "Consumers spent more freely on furniture, cars, clothing & transportation but pulled back on dining out, gas & groceries".

12. Discretionary spending. "Credit and debit card spending per household (ex-grocery, gas, & clothing) for those with annual income > $125k has contracted on m/m basis for three consecutive months".

13. Wages. Private and government worker wages are up 11% and 4.1% YoY, respectively. Both are the lowest since March. 

14. UMich (I). Consumer sentiment was revised higher to 58.2 from 55.1 in August. Consumer expectations were revised to 58 from 54.9.

15. UMich (II). Consumer sentiment contributions breakdown.

16. UMich (III). Consumer sentiment by political affiliation.

17. UMich (IV). There’s still a wide gap between University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment vs. Conference Board (consumer confidence).

18. Jackson Hole (I). Both stocks and bonds sold off ahead of Jackson Hole.

19. Jackson Hole (II). Here’s how the S&P 500 typically performs around this time of year.

20. Jackson Hole (III). Powell’s speech had little effect on the market probabilities of a 75bps hike in September.

21. Global outflows. "Global equity funds witnessed their biggest weekly capital withdrawals in five weeks in the week to Aug. 24...investors disposed of a net $10.48 billion worth of global equity funds".

22. Flow (I). Tech stocks just saw their biggest outflows since November 2021.

23. Flows (II). Financials, on the other hand, saw their biggest inflows since January 2022

24. Smart money. US institutional positioning has moved up from extremely bearish closer to neutral.

25. O&G FCF. Oil & gas producers are poised to generate a record $1.4 trillion in free cash flow in 2022.

26. Slowing FANG. "Since S&P 500's peak on January 3, forward EPS (orange) have climbed despite rolling over of late; but for largest/most popular growth stocks (blue), forward EPS are down by ~7%".

27. Large-cap fund outperformance (I). “More large-cap managers are outperforming their benchmarks than any year since 2009”.

28. Large-cap fund outperformance (II). What’s behind the outperformance? High cash levels.

29. Retail outperformance is dwindling. And finally, "retail investors’ average portfolio is still ahead of the S&P 500 since the start of the pandemic, but the outperformance is dwindling."

Have a great weekend!