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Daily Chartbook #29

www.dailychartbook.com

Daily Chartbook #29

Catch up on the day in 29 charts

Daily Chartbook
Aug 27, 2022
5
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Daily Chartbook #29

www.dailychartbook.com

Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: macro market charts, data, and insights pulled from various sources around the Internet by a solo retail investor.


1. Big tech & you. Which companies have the most data on you?

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@mayhem4markets

2. Q3 GDP. BofA is estimating 0.5% US GDP growth for the third quarter.

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@mikeziccardi

3. Goods Trade Balance. The trade deficit narrowed further in July to $89.1 billion "vs. $98.5 billion est. & $98.6 billion in prior month (rev from $98.2 billion)".

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@lizannsonders

4. Personal Consumption Expenditure (I). Headline PCE fell by 0.1% in July and is up 6.3% YoY while core PCE increased by 0.1% (vs. 0.3% expected) and is up 4.6% YoY.

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@lizannsonders

5. Personal Consumption Expenditure (II). Headline PCE declined MoM for the first time since April 2020.

@gregdaco

6. Personal Consumption Expenditure (III). Topline contributors YoY.

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@m_mcdonough

7. Personal Consumption Expenditure (IV). Top 5 subcomponent contributors YoY.

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@m_mcdonough

8. Personal Consumption Expenditure (V). Top 5 subcomponent contributors MoM.

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@m_mcdonough

9. Personal Income & Consumer Spending. Personal income rose 0.2% in July (vs. 0.6% expected) while consumer spending increased 0.1% (vs. 0.4% expected).

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@lizannsonders

10. Consumer spending (I). Here's the breakdown of consumer spending.

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@gregdaco


11. Consumer spending (II). Further breakdown: "Consumers spent more freely on furniture, cars, clothing & transportation but pulled back on dining out, gas & groceries".

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@gregdaco

12. Discretionary spending. "Credit and debit card spending per household (ex-grocery, gas, & clothing) for those with annual income > $125k has contracted on m/m basis for three consecutive months".

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@lizannsonders

13. Wages. Private and government worker wages are up 11% and 4.1% YoY, respectively. Both are the lowest since March. 

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@zerohedge

14. UMich (I). Consumer sentiment was revised higher to 58.2 from 55.1 in August. Consumer expectations were revised to 58 from 54.9.

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@lizannsonders

15. UMich (II). Consumer sentiment contributions breakdown.

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@m_mcdonough

16. UMich (III). Consumer sentiment by political affiliation.

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@m_mcdonough

17. UMich (IV). There’s still a wide gap between University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment vs. Conference Board (consumer confidence).

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@m_mcdonough

18. Jackson Hole (I). Both stocks and bonds sold off ahead of Jackson Hole.

Stocks and bonds have both sold off ahead of Jackson Hole
Bloomberg

19. Jackson Hole (II). Here’s how the S&P 500 typically performs around this time of year.

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@samro

20. Jackson Hole (III). Powell’s speech had little effect on the market probabilities of a 75bps hike in September.

CME Group

21. Global outflows. "Global equity funds witnessed their biggest weekly capital withdrawals in five weeks in the week to Aug. 24...investors disposed of a net $10.48 billion worth of global equity funds".

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@priapusiq

22. Flow (I). Tech stocks just saw their biggest outflows since November 2021.

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@mikeziccardi

23. Flows (II). Financials, on the other hand, saw their biggest inflows since January 2022

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@mikeziccardi

24. Smart money. US institutional positioning has moved up from extremely bearish closer to neutral.

Goldman via TME

25. O&G FCF. Oil & gas producers are poised to generate a record $1.4 trillion in free cash flow in 2022.

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@priapusiq

26. Slowing FANG. "Since S&P 500's peak on January 3, forward EPS (orange) have climbed despite rolling over of late; but for largest/most popular growth stocks (blue), forward EPS are down by ~7%".

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@lizannsonders


27. Large-cap fund outperformance (I). “More large-cap managers are outperforming their benchmarks than any year since 2009”.

Goldman via TME

28. Large-cap fund outperformance (II). What’s behind the outperformance? High cash levels.

Goldman via TME

29. Retail outperformance is dwindling. And finally, "retail investors’ average portfolio is still ahead of the S&P 500 since the start of the pandemic, but the outperformance is dwindling."

Vanda Research via Daily Shot

Have a great weekend!

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Daily Chartbook #29

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