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Daily Chartbook #281

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Daily Chartbook #281

Catch up on the day in 30 charts

Daily Chartbook
Sep 16, 2023
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Daily Chartbook #281

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Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: the day’s best charts & insights, curated.


1. Home prices. "The median U.S. home sale price rose 3% year over year to $420,846 in August, the largest annual increase since October 2022."

Redfin

2. Active listings. "Total number of homes for sales hit a record low in August, falling 1.1% month over month on a seasonally adjusted basis and 20.8% year over year—the largest annual decline since June 2021."

Redfin

3. Cold feet. "Nearly 60,000 home-purchase agreements were canceled in August, equal to 15.7% of homes that went under contract that month. That’s up from 14.3% a year earlier and marks the highest percentage since October 2022."

Redfin

4. Empire State Manufacturing. The index topped expectations for a modest improvement and flipped back into positive territory. The 6-month ahead outlook increased to the highest level since March 2022.

Image
NY Fed via @jpicerno

5. Industrial & Manufacturing production. Industrial production increased 0.4% MoM in August (vs. +0.1% est) to +0.2% YoY. Manufacturing production rose by 0.1% MoM (in line) to -0.6% YoY (6th consecutive of negative YoY).

Zero Hedge

6. Survey of consumers. Consumer sentiment fell more than expected, to 67.7 (vs. 69.1 est) from 69.5. Current conditions dropped sharply while expectations ticked up. Consumer expectations for both year-ahead and 5-10 year inflation declined, with the former reaching its lowest since early 2021.

Image
U of Mich via @macro84

7. Student loan payments. "US student loan payments soar. Even though they are not obligatory before October borrowers are paying at a rate of $9bn a month."

Image
@ppgmacro

8. New businesses vs. bankruptcies. "Business applications remain high (34k, vs. 25k average in 2019) and commercial bankruptcies remain low (2.3k, vs. 3.3k on average in 2019)."

Goldman Sachs

9. WARN notices. Goldman estimates the layoff rate based on August and September WARN notices is around its pre-pandemic level of 1.2%.

Goldman Sachs

10. Lending standards. "A net 51% of US Banks are now tightening their lending standards, the highest since 2020 and at levels that have coincided with recessionary periods in the past."

Image
@charliebilello

11. Recession vs. leading indicators. "Nearly all leading indicators suggest the US should have already entered recession. In fact, it should have entered one long ago back in September-October last year."

Deutsche Bank

12. Macro divergences. "Leading indicators suggest countries are at a very different stage of their respective cycle."

TS Lombard

13. Minerals vs. net zero. "To make enough progress to reach net zero emissions by 2050, production of lithium, copper, nickel, and aluminum will need to increase sixfold from 2022 production levels."

Goldman Sachs Briefings

14. Commodity market flows. "Cumulative global commodity market inflows remain record strong through 2023 YTD at $236 billion."

JPMorgan

15. USD sentiment. "Barclays’ US dollar sentiment indicator is increasingly bullish."

Barclays via The Daily Shot

16. UST flows. Treasuries have experienced their "longest inflow streak (31 weeks) since 2010, also on track for record year with $144bn inflows YTD."

BofA

17. Saudi Arabia vs. UST. "The Saudis are no longer plowing petrodollars into US Treasuries."

Image
BofA via @soberlook

18. Equity-bond correlation. The "equity-bond correlation moved further into positive territory [over the past month], as the market started to see, once again, good (macro) news as bad (monetary policy) news."

TS Lombard

19. State Street confidence. "US Equity institutional investors are no longer underweight as soft-landing expectations rise."

TS Lombard

20. YTD flows. "Where investors have put their cash this year (hint: not stocks)."

Image
Goldman Sachs via @gunjanjs

21. Equity fund flows. Equity funds saw their "biggest weekly inflow ($25.3bn) since Mar'22, as confidence in soft landing consensus grows."

BofA

22. Private client flows. "Private clients buying Japan, growth & value, bank loan & muni ETFs past 4 weeks, selling TIPS, financials, low vol, gold ETFs."

BofA

23. Retail buying. Retail net buying has slowed, especially in AI stocks.

Vanda Research via The Daily Shot

24. Discretionary positioning vs. data. Discretionary investor positioning "is above levels implied by the ISM but in line with data surprises and hard data like growth in manufacturing production, retail sales, and earnings revisions."

Deutsche Bank

25. Sector rotation. "Sector rotation shows Tech and Consumer Discretionary getting weaker. Energy and Financials now leading. And defensive sectors like Utilities and Staples improving."

Image
@fxmacroguy
See:
fx:macro

26. Sector ratings. The percentage of buy- (54.4%) and hold-rated (40%) stocks are above their 5-year averages while the percentage of sell-rated stocks (5.6%) is below its 5-year average.

01-s&p-500-percentage-of-buy-hold-and-sell-ratings
Fact Set

27. Regional short flows. "Globally, short flows are elevated in the market which could push the squeeze in small caps due to a FED pause, hence a Size factor underperformance."

JPMorgan

28. Equal-weight valuation. "It’s nearly impossible to be bullish on the market capitalization weighted S&P 500 on valuation .. But excluding the largest seven companies, or based on the equal weighted S&P 500, PE ratios are roughly at historical average."

Image
Savita Subramanian - BofA via @carlquintanilla

29. Q3 earnings. Deutsche Bank expects S&P 500 earnings will reach new highs in Q3, rising 5.3% quarter-to-quarter.

Deutsche Bank

30. Performance vs. earnings. And finally, “stocks that missed their Q2 EPS estimates have sold off (not surprising). More interestingly, though, investors have sold the stocks that BEAT Q2 estimates (e.g. $NVDA). Begs the question: What's priced into the market?”

Image
@3F_Research

Have a great weekend!

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Daily Chartbook #281

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Daily Chartbook #281

www.dailychartbook.com
Bryan Cecilio
Sep 16Liked by Daily Chartbook

Thank you these are great!

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