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Daily Chartbook #277

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Daily Chartbook #277

Catch up on the day in 30 charts

Daily Chartbook
Sep 12, 2023
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Daily Chartbook #277

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Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: the day’s best charts & insights, curated.


1. Logistics. The Logistics Managers Index improved for the first time in 4 months and rose to its highest reading since February.

Image
LMI

2. Inflation talk. Q2 saw “the lowest number of S&P 500 companies citing ‘inflation’ on earnings calls going back to Q2 2021.”

01-number-of-s&p-500-companies-citing-inflation-on-earnings-calls-10-year
Fact Set

3. Consumer expectations (I). "Home price growth expectations have fully normalized and are back at pre-pandemic levels."

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NY Fed via @conorsen

4. Consumer expectations (II). One-year ahead inflation expectations increased to 3.6% from 3.5% while three-year ahead expectations ticked down to 2.8% from 2.9%. Five-year ahead inflation expectations moved up to 3% from 2.9%.

NY Fed

5. Consumer expectations (III). "The share of U.S. households reporting that it's harder to obtain credit than one year ago hit a new high in the New York Fed's consumer survey, which is around 10 years old."

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NY Fed via @nicktimiraos

6. Lending growth. "Weekly Fed data shows small and large bank lending growth slowing rapidly."

Torsten Sløk - Apollo

7. Credit upgrades vs. downgrades. "Since the Fed started raising rates the number of downgrades have outnumbered the number of upgrades."

Torsten Sløk - Apollo

8. Corporate cash. "If profits are now rebounding, boosting confidence that the 'soft-landing' has passed, there is plenty of liquidity to support capex."

Steven Blitz - TS Lombard

9. Household liquidity. "Households are not running out of 'excess savings', far from it. There is still an effective record amount of liquidity on household balance sheets relative to GDP."

Steven Blitz - TS Lombard

10. Consensus. "The consensus expects growth to continue to slow."

Torsten Sløk - Apollo

11. Consensus vs. Surprise. "The consensus continues to forecast a sharp slowing in growth...leaving room for data to surprise to the upside."

Deutsche Bank

12. Oil inventories. "Global oil inventories are now at their lowest levels since [Kpler] data begins (2017), and we believe will end 2023/2024 at a ~378MM/750MM Bbl deficit relative to a 2017-2019 baseline average."

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@ericnuttall

13. Positioning & Sentiment. "Our positioning and sentiment indicator has reversed some of the bullish shift from the start of the summer, but remains above the 50th percentile with recent signs of stabilization."

Goldman Sachs

14. Equity positioning. Equity positioning is moving closer to neutral.

Deutsche Bank

15. Sector positioning. "Investor exposure across many sectors has also been declining over the last few weeks."

Deutsche Bank

16. Sector fund flows. "Tech (-$1.7bn) saw outflows after ten consecutive weeks of solid inflows...[and] Financials (-$0.7bn) saw outflows again for a sixth successive week."

Deutsche Bank

17. HF trading flow (I). "Overall US equities were net sold [last] week (-0.6SDs one-year), driven by heavy short sales outpacing long buys 1.5 to 1."

Goldman Sachs

18. HF trading flows (II). Hedge fund notional buying was led by "Info Tech, Financials, Consumer Discretionary, and Comm Svcs, while Health Care, Energy, and Consumer Staples were the most net sold."

Goldman Sachs

19. HF short flows (I). Hedge fund "cumulative short flow in US equities at its highest level YTD. [Last] week’s notional short selling was the largest in nearly 6 months."

Goldman Sachs

20. HF short flows (II). "JPM notes that the level of shorts added in the past 4 weeks is getting elevated again."

Adding shorts
JPMorgan via TME

21. HFs vs. TMT. "Managers net sold US TMT stocks at the fastest pace in 8 weeks, driven almost entirely by short sales."

Goldman Sachs

22. HFs vs. mega-cap tech. Hedge funds are *very* long mega-cap tech.

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Goldman Sachs

23. Call volume. "Total net call volume (calls minus puts) declined sharply (5th percentile), as call volume tumbled to near a five-month low."

Deutsche Bank

24. ERP vs. IG spreads. "The S&P 500 equity risk premium (ERP) has fallen below IG credit spreads, underscoring the loftiness of current valuations."

Barclays

25. Fundamental valuations. "Stocks are historically expensive, at valuations comparable to the eve of the Great Crash in 1929 and of the GFC in 2007."

Absolute Strategy via John Authers

26. Relative valuations. But, relative to the $SPX, most sector valuations are below their historical averages

Goldman Sachs

27. Cheap Defensives. On a NTM P/E basis, Defensives are very cheap relative to the S&P 500.

Goldman Sachs

28. Late cycle (I). "Interestingly, despite the rate move higher since the local peak in equities in late July, growth has outpaced both value and cyclical."

Mike Wilson - Morgan Stanley

29. Late cycle (II). "A broad set of early cycle winners have seen relative performance decelerate recently. These developments suggest to us that the internals of the equity market may be growing more skeptical that a macro reacceleration is imminent."

Mike Wilson - Morgan Stanley

30. Late cycle (III). And finally, “after an attempted broadening out in leadership in May/June that failed, the late cycle barbell is starting to stabilize again and early cycle winners are once again underperforming.”

Mike Wilson - Morgan Stanley

Thanks for reading!

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