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Daily Chartbook #273

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Daily Chartbook #273

Catch up on the day in 30 charts

Daily Chartbook
Sep 6, 2023
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Daily Chartbook #273

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Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: the day’s best charts & insights, curated.


1. Vehicle sales. "August US light vehicle sales were up 13.7% YoY on an adjusted basis for a SAAR of 15.0mm, which is above the 12 month moving average."

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BofA via @mikezaccardi

2. C&I loan demand. "Demand for credit is coming down aggressively, the most since GFC."

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JPMorgan

3. Recession probability. Goldman Sachs lowered its US recession probability to 15% from 20%.

Goldman Sachs

4. Recession talk. The number of companies citing ‘recession’ during earnings calls fell for the 4th straight month to 62 in Q2, the lowest since Q4 2021.

01-number-of-s&p-500-companies-citing-recession-on-earnings-calls
Fact Set

5. Hike cycle vs. recession. "If the lags between rate hikes and a recession match previous cycles, then we are coming into the range where a recession is most likely."

Deutsche Bank

6. CPI vs. 2%. "Here’s a look at how tough it’s going to be to get back to the Fed’s 2% target rate for inflation anytime soon."

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@bespokeinvest

7. Wage growth forecast (I). "We forecast 3.75% wage growth in 2024 on a Q4/Q4 basis—which combined with falling inflation…should keep real wage growth well above 1% through the end of next year."

Goldman Sachs

8. Wage growth forecast (II). "Relative to prior years, we expect that income growth in 2024 will be slightly stronger for lower-income households and slightly weaker for higher-income households than it was in 2023, and much stronger for all households than in 2022."

Goldman Sachs

9. Excess savings. "Consumers are almost out of pandemic savings."

US households running out of excess savings
Torsten Sløk

10. Spending plans. "The only categories where consumers are planning to spend more over the next six months are essentials categories - groceries and household supplies."

Morgan Stanley

11. Factory orders. "Factory orders have been going nowhere for the last 12 months. At -2.1% MoM was slightly better than expected (-2.5%). Transportation was a drag: ex Transportation was +0.8% (+0.1% est). X-defense was -2.2%."

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@macro84

12. PMI vs. US10Y. "Falling inflation and the softening in activity is a constraint to a move higher in bond yields."

JPMorgan

13. Bear-steepening. "Bear-steepening regimes have generally been ‘risk-on’: equities delivered strong positive returns as higher growth expectations helped them digest the rise in real rates while bonds sold off, especially in the back end."

Goldman Sachs

14. Risk appetite. Goldman's Risk Appetite Indicator is hovering around YTD highs.

Goldman Sachs

15. Sector fund flows. "Inflows to Tech ($5.1bn) accelerated to a three-month high" last week.

Deutsche Bank

16. Retail net purchases. "Retail purchases have slowed recently."

Vanda Research via The Daily Shot

17. Retail participation. "Retail participation is currently at 11.4% of the total market volume, and at 94th%-ile relative to the last 6 years."

Morgan Stanley

18. Equity positioning. Aggregate positioning (58th percentile) ticked up last week. Discretionary positioning (53rd) rebounded back to above neutral while systematic strategies (61st) declined for the second straight week

Deutsche Bank

19. Positioning divergence. There is a clear divergence in US equity futures positioning between asset managers and leveraged funds.

Deutsche Bank

20. CTAs vs. equities. CTA exposure to equities is right around its long-term median.

Deutsche Bank

21. Sector positioning. Tech remains the biggest overweight followed by Staples and Industrials. Utilities is very underweight.

Deutsche Bank

22. HFs vs Banks. Hedge fund aggregate long/short ratio in Banks is in the 28th and 7th percentiles on 1- and 5-year lookbacks, respectively. L/S ratio in Regional Banks is in the 26th and 22nd percentiles on 1- and 5-year lookback, respectively.

Goldman Sachs

23. Capex cycle. "The disparity in capital allocation between technology and resource industries remains historically notable."

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@tavicosta

24. Operating margins by size. The bigger the company, the bigger the margins.

PGM Global via The Daily Shot

25. Global NTM EPS. "S&P 500 next 12 month earnings estimates ticked up in August, but MSCI EAFE & MSCI Emerging Markets indices ticked down."

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@matthew_miskin

26. PE vs. yields. "US P/Es are high considering the rising levels of real bond yields."

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JPMorgan

27. VIX seasonality. Current low $VIX levels combined with seasonality suggest a volatility squeeze ahead.

Nomura

28. SPX vs. Utilities. "The last time [Utilities] lagged this far behind the market, the dot-com bubble was about to burst."

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WSJ

29. SPX vs. equal-weight. “The S&P 500 is outpacing its equal-weighted version by the most since 1998, during the dot com bubble.”

Deutsche Bank

30. Largest company. And finally, “the largest company in the index has historically belonged to the dominant sector at any time...it has also tended to maintain its size...until either regulation (anti-trust) intervenes...or the incumbent company loses out to a more nimble new entrant.”

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Goldman Sachs

Thanks for reading!

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