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Daily Chartbook #267

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Daily Chartbook #267

Catch up on the day in 30 charts

Daily Chartbook
Aug 26, 2023
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Daily Chartbook #267

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Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: the day’s best charts & insights, curated.


1. Pending sales. "Pending home sales inched up in July—rising 0.7% from a month earlier to the highest level since the start of the year on a seasonally adjusted basis. Still, they were only 5.4% above the low point they hit in March."

Redfin

2. Median price. "The median home sale price rose 1.7% year over year to $421,872 in July—the first annual increase since the start of the year...Housing prices have remained high despite sluggish homebuyer demand because there are so few homes on the market."

Redfin

3. Active listings. "Housing supply is dwindling because high mortgage rates are dissuading homeowners from selling."

Redfin

4. State Coincident Indexes. "Growth appears to be slowing across the Midwest and southern US."

image
DataTrek Research

5. Credit cycle. "The credit cycle may just be getting started...defaults are finally ticking higher...floating rates haven’t even reset yet...lending standards keep tightening."

Image
@HayekAndKeynes

6. VIX vs. credit spreads. "VIX has moved up rather aggressively since the summer lows. Credit spreads have been much more 'muted'."

VIX vs credit
JPMorgan via TME

7. US federal budget. "The outlook for the federal budget right now is essentially unprecedented."

Bloomberg

8. Unemployment claims. "The percentage of states with substantial increases in unemployment claims has been rising."

Simon White via The Daily  Shot

9. Consumer sentiment. "After rising sharply for the past several months, the final print for August's UMich headline sentiment data declined."

Zero Hedge

10. Inflation expectations. "Year-ahead inflation expectations edged up from 3.4% last month to 3.5% this month (up signifcantly from the 3.3% preliminary print). Long-run inflation expectations came in at 3.0% for the third consecutive month, but up from the 2.9% preliminary print."

Zero Hedge

11. Oil ETF flows. "USO, the largest oil ETF, is seeing substantial outflows."

Chris Murphy via The Daily Shot

12. US fixed income flows. US fixed income flows were positive ($5.2bn) for the 34th consecutive week.

TD Securities

13. UST fund flows. Treasury funds have seen 28 straight weeks of inflows (incl $5.2bn over the past week), the longest streak since 2010.

BofA (yes, there’s a typo in the chart title)

14. US10Y vs. Jackson Hole. "Rates have historically risen into the event, remained flat for a week after and then increased into September. 2022 was an outlier."

Image
BofA via @ayeshatariq
See:
MacroVisor

15. US10Y vs. SPX. "Over the last 60 years...Higher yields were more often a sign to lean into stocks, not run away from them."

eToro - Callie Cox

16. SPX vs. cash. "Equities now more expensive than cash for the first time since 2001. Also Short-term bonds now offer the best alternative to stocks in decades. That could derail equities in long term."

Image
Ned Davis Research via @menthorqpro

17. Equity fund flows. "Biggest weekly equity outflow since March."

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BofA via @mikezaccardi

18. Tech fund flows. Tech funds saw their largest weekly inflow ($2.3bn) in 10 weeks.

BofA

19. Retail flows. "Retail investors have been slowing their stock purchases."

Vanda Research via The Daily Shot

20. Private client flows. BofA's private clients have been "buying Japan, munis, IG bond ETFs & selling financials, healthcare, utilities, consumer ETFs past 4 weeks."

BofA

21. Vol-control funds. "This is the largest selling event we've seen from vol control funds since late 2022, with an estimated $28B  of selling flow hitting the market."

Image
@t1alpa

22. CTAs vs. SPX. "We estimate -$32B worth of CTA supply assuming a flat market tape or -$6.5B worth of supply each of the next 5 days."

Goldman Sachs

23. HF exposure. "Hedge funds are near an all-time low in exposure to cyclical vs. defensive sectors."

BofA

24. HF longest/shortest. "Real Estate is the most shorted sector while Tech is the least shorted” while “Comm. Svcs. has seen the largest increase in hedge fund net relative exposure this year.

BofA

25. HFs vs. Industrials. "After 2 straight months of net selling, Industrials is among the most net bought sectors in August, driven by long buys outpacing short sales."

Goldman Sachs

26. Smart money divergence. Equity holdings for long-only and hedge fund managers are at odds with that of FMS investors.

BofA

27. Funds vs. Magnificent 7 (I). There are fewer funds left to buy the Magnificent 7.

BofA

28. Funds vs. Magnificent 7 (II). "Active managers underweight AAPL 0.00%↑ TSLA 0.00%↑."

Image
BofA via @mikezaccardi

29. SPX breadth. "Fewer than half of the $SPX sectors are still above their 200-day avg. Middling sector-level strength has historically been a headwind for the index."

Image
@williedelwiche
See:
Hi Mount Research

30. CB liquidity vs. Tech. And finally, “best correlation past 15 years is central bank liquidity (insane surge from $5tn to $25tn) & tech stocks (Nasdaq 2k to 16k); central bank balance sheets down $3tn yet Nasdaq wants new highs...we say tech= H2 trouble rather than era of new AI rules (like "excess savings" for Main St,“excess liquidity” to run out for Wall St).”

BofA - Hartnett

Have a great weekend!

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Daily Chartbook #267

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Daily Chartbook #267

www.dailychartbook.com
Bryan Cecilio
Aug 26Liked by Daily Chartbook

Thank you for the charts. Enjoy your weekend!

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DF
Aug 28

+++++

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