Daily Chartbook #267

Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: the day’s best charts & insights, curated.

1. Pending sales. "Pending home sales inched up in July—rising 0.7% from a month earlier to the highest level since the start of the year on a seasonally adjusted basis. Still, they were only 5.4% above the low point they hit in March."

2. Median price. "The median home sale price rose 1.7% year over year to $421,872 in July—the first annual increase since the start of the year...Housing prices have remained high despite sluggish homebuyer demand because there are so few homes on the market."

3. Active listings. "Housing supply is dwindling because high mortgage rates are dissuading homeowners from selling."

4. State Coincident Indexes. "Growth appears to be slowing across the Midwest and southern US."

5. Credit cycle. "The credit cycle may just be getting started...defaults are finally ticking higher...floating rates haven’t even reset yet...lending standards keep tightening."

6. VIX vs. credit spreads. "VIX has moved up rather aggressively since the summer lows. Credit spreads have been much more 'muted'."

7. US federal budget. "The outlook for the federal budget right now is essentially unprecedented."

8. Unemployment claims. "The percentage of states with substantial increases in unemployment claims has been rising."

9. Consumer sentiment. "After rising sharply for the past several months, the final print for August's UMich headline sentiment data declined."

10. Inflation expectations. "Year-ahead inflation expectations edged up from 3.4% last month to 3.5% this month (up signifcantly from the 3.3% preliminary print). Long-run inflation expectations came in at 3.0% for the third consecutive month, but up from the 2.9% preliminary print."

11. Oil ETF flows. "USO, the largest oil ETF, is seeing substantial outflows."

12. US fixed income flows. US fixed income flows were positive ($5.2bn) for the 34th consecutive week.

13. UST fund flows. Treasury funds have seen 28 straight weeks of inflows (incl $5.2bn over the past week), the longest streak since 2010.

14. US10Y vs. Jackson Hole. "Rates have historically risen into the event, remained flat for a week after and then increased into September. 2022 was an outlier."

See:

15. US10Y vs. SPX. "Over the last 60 years...Higher yields were more often a sign to lean into stocks, not run away from them."

16. SPX vs. cash. "Equities now more expensive than cash for the first time since 2001. Also Short-term bonds now offer the best alternative to stocks in decades. That could derail equities in long term."

17. Equity fund flows. "Biggest weekly equity outflow since March."

18. Tech fund flows. Tech funds saw their largest weekly inflow ($2.3bn) in 10 weeks.

19. Retail flows. "Retail investors have been slowing their stock purchases."

20. Private client flows. BofA's private clients have been "buying Japan, munis, IG bond ETFs & selling financials, healthcare, utilities, consumer ETFs past 4 weeks."

21. Vol-control funds. "This is the largest selling event we've seen from vol control funds since late 2022, with an estimated $28B  of selling flow hitting the market."

22. CTAs vs. SPX. "We estimate -$32B worth of CTA supply assuming a flat market tape or -$6.5B worth of supply each of the next 5 days."

23. HF exposure. "Hedge funds are near an all-time low in exposure to cyclical vs. defensive sectors."

24. HF longest/shortest. "Real Estate is the most shorted sector while Tech is the least shorted” while “Comm. Svcs. has seen the largest increase in hedge fund net relative exposure this year.

25. HFs vs. Industrials. "After 2 straight months of net selling, Industrials is among the most net bought sectors in August, driven by long buys outpacing short sales."

26. Smart money divergence. Equity holdings for long-only and hedge fund managers are at odds with that of FMS investors.

27. Funds vs. Magnificent 7 (I). There are fewer funds left to buy the Magnificent 7.

28. Funds vs. Magnificent 7 (II). "Active managers underweight ."

29. SPX breadth. "Fewer than half of the $SPX sectors are still above their 200-day avg. Middling sector-level strength has historically been a headwind for the index."

See:

30. CB liquidity vs. Tech. And finally, “best correlation past 15 years is central bank liquidity (insane surge from $5tn to $25tn) & tech stocks (Nasdaq 2k to 16k); central bank balance sheets down $3tn yet Nasdaq wants new highs...we say tech= H2 trouble rather than era of new AI rules (like "excess savings" for Main St,“excess liquidity” to run out for Wall St).”

Have a great weekend!