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Daily Chartbook #260

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Daily Chartbook #260

Catch up on the day in 30 charts

Daily Chartbook
Aug 17, 2023
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Daily Chartbook #260

www.dailychartbook.com
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Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: the day’s best charts & insights, curated.


1. Mortgage demand. "The gauge of mortgage purchase applications slipped for a fifth-straight week to the second-lowest level since 1995...Mortgage purchase applications were down 12.2% over the past seven weeks."

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@c_barraud

2. Housing starts. Housing starts jumped 3.9% to 1.452 million in July. Single-family starts are at the highest since May while multi-family starts are at the lowest since July 2022.

Zero Hedge

3. Building permits. Building permits edged up by 0.1% to 1.442 million in July. Single-family permits are at the highest since June 2022 while multi-family permits are at the lowest since October 2020.

Zero Hedge

4. Affordability (or lack thereof). "Real-time US Housing Affordability Index...probably at fresh 40-year lows...Imagine if wages weren't so strong."

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Yardeni Research via @mikezaccardi

5. Wage growth. "Posted wages grew 4.7% year-over-year as of July...That’s down from 5.1% in June and 6.2% at the beginning of the year."

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@nick_bunker

6. Shipping rates. "Global shipping rates slowly turning higher, with Shanghai to New York route leading recent increase."

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Arbor Data via @lizannsonders

7. National Financial Conditions Index. The NFCI "edged down to –0.39 in the week ending August 11, suggesting financial conditions loosened again."

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@chicagofed

8. Lending standards vs. NFP. "With consumers facing higher interest rates and tighter lending standards, the downside risk to nonfarm payrolls over the coming six months is significant."

Torsten Sløk

9. NY Fed Services. The NY Fed's "services activity index rose 0.6 vs flat reading in June.  Employment declined -0.6 but wages rose (+5.8 to 38.9) as did prices paid (+5.7) and prices received (+2.8)."

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@macro84

10. Industrial production.  The July “report was better-than-expected continuing a string of strong data to start 3Q. A jump in motor vehicle and utilities production drove the headline production increase.”

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BofA via @mikezaccardi

11. Q3 GDP. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate for Q3 GDP increased again and now stands at 5.8% (up from 5% yesterday) which would mark the strongest growth since 2003.

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@lizyoungstrat

12. Crude backwardation. "The backwardation of the WTI curve has increased, which is indicative of a tight physical market."

PGM Global via The Daily Shot

13. US petroleum inventories. "US commercial petroleum inventories declined by 7.4 MMbbl last week, driven by a 6 MMbbl crude draw."

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@rory_johnston
See:
Commodity Context

14. Strategic Petroleum Reserves. "For the second week in a row, the Biden administration 'refilled' the SPR (adding a mere 600k barrels)."

Zero Hedge

15. Duration demand. "Over the past few months, institutional asset managers have pared back their demand for duration, although they remain somewhat bullish."

Deutsche Bank

16. T-bills vs. SPX. "3-month Tbill yield and 6-month Tbill yield exceed the S&P 500 earnings yield at the highest level since 2001."

Goldman Sachs

17. US-China yield gap. "The yield gap between 10-year US and Chinese government bonds is now more than 160 basis points, the widest since 2007."

John Authers

18. US 10-year. “The 10-year at 4.27% is its highest closing level since June 16, 2008.”

@biancoresearch

19. Risky vs. safe flows. "Risky vs. safe assets fund flows remain negative."

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Goldman Sachs via @isabelnet_sa

20. Foreign inflows. "The June foreign equity inflows were by far the strongest monthly number on record."

Deutsche Bank

21. HF trading flow. "After experiencing one of the largest active de-grossing months in recent years led by short covering, overall Prime book saw increased grossing trading activity in 9 of the last 10 sessions, suggesting renewed risk appetite."

Goldman Sachs

22. HF short flows. "US equities collectively saw increased shorting activity in 8 of the last 10 sessions. MTD short flow already exceeds the covering in July by ~2.5 to 1 in notional terms."

Goldman Sachs

23. SPX vs. VIX. Yesterday "was only the third 1% daily swing in the S&P 500 in the past two months...the absence of fear (e.g. VIX > 28.5) suggests the path of least resistance for stocks is lower."

Hi Mount Research
See:
Hi Mount Research

24. SPX vs. M2. "Relative to M2 money supply, the S&P 500 is trading at the exact same level as July 2007….Logical resistance zone?"

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@calebfranzen
See:
Cubic Analytics

25. SPX vs. earnings season. "The S&P 500 typically rallies during earnings season, with a median average return of 2.0%. But not this time."

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Deutsche Bank via @isabelnet_sa

26. Earnings revisions. "The revision index has rebounded from -15% to zero, so the earnings cycle does seem to be bottoming here after a modest decline."

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@timmerfidelity

27. Bank forward earnings. "Forward earnings for regional banks have yet to bottom."

MRB Partners via The Daily Shot

28. Banks vs. SPX. "S&P 500 is outperforming KBW Bank Index by more than 33% thus far this year ... if it holds, it will be widest performance gap (in favor of former) on record."

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@lizannsonders

29. Less austerity, more capex. "The latest Global Fund Managers Survey shows a rising share of equity investors that call for companies to spend cash on capex, at the expense of those that prefer companies to pay back debt."

BofA

30. SPX vs. yield curve. And finally, “other than the 1980 cycle (with which today’s cycle has little in common), the stock market has never been able to advance further than it has now (before some sort of drawdown) once peak inversion was reached.”

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@timmerfidelity

Thanks for reading!

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Daily Chartbook #260

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Daily Chartbook #260

www.dailychartbook.com
Giselle Soto
Aug 17Liked by Daily Chartbook

Amazing

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