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Daily Chartbook #255

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Daily Chartbook #255

Catch up on the day in 30 charts

Daily Chartbook
Aug 10, 2023
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Daily Chartbook #255

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Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: the day’s best charts & insights, curated.


1. Mortgage rates. "The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate ticked up to 7.09% last week, a new high for 2023, and is hovering near 21-year highs."

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@nicktimiraos

2. Mortgage demand. Mortgage applications, refis, and purchases all declined last week.

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@macro84

3. Housing affordability. The US house price-to-income ratio is approaching mid-2000s levels.

JPMorgan

4. Borrowing costs. "June personal income data show that consumer debt now costs more money than it has in years."

TS Lombard

5. Container rates. "Bit of an uptick in global container shipping rates...composite rose last week to $1,761, driven by increase for route from China to U.S. west and east coasts; overall levels still quite low relative to pandemic boom."

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Arbor Data via @lizannsonders

6. Chinese deflation. "China’s deflation concerns could turn out to be good news for global disinflation. Our recent study suggests a China spillover to global (ex-China) core goods inflation of around -70bp over 2H23."

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JPMorgan via @carlquintanilla

7. CPI Day cheat sheet. Average one-day returns across various assets on CPI day from March 2022 to June 2023.

Zero Hedge

8. National Financial Conditions Index. The NFCI "ticked down to –0.35 in the week ending August 4, suggesting financial conditions continued to loosen."

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@chicagofed

9. Loan demand. "Demand for bank loans in the corporate sector just fell to their lowest since 2008. There is nearly half as much demand as what we saw in 2020 when the economy was completely locked down."

Lowest since 2008...
@kobeissiletter via TME

10. Zombies (I). "Currently, just over 2% of public market credit issuers can be classified as a zombie, according to our criteria, with a total net debt of $36 billion."

Goldman Sachs

11. Zombies (II). "Across the current cohort of zombie firms, almost 20% of their outstanding bond maturities will need to be refinanced by 2025 and just over 50% by 2026, implying a high likelihood of default for these firms."

Goldman Sachs

12. Electricity costs. "Americans now pay an average of nearly 25% more for power than they did before the pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine."

WSJ

13. Speculators vs. US gasoline. "Speculative accounts are boosting bets on US gasoline as the hurricane season ramps up."

Reuters via The Daily Shot

14. US petroluem inventories. "US commercial petroleum inventories rose by 7.1 million barrels last week, driven by a 5.9 MMbbl crude inflow."

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@rory_johnston
See:
Commodity Context

15. Strategic Petroluem Reserves. "The Biden administration actually added 995k barrels to the SPR last week - the largest weekly build since June 2020."

Zero Hedge

16. Base metals vs. GDP. Sensitivities of base metals to GDP growth have declined over the past decade.

BofA

17. BRICS vs. gold. "The BRICS central banks continue to amass gold."

Alpine Macro via The Daily Shot

18. Equity fund flows. "While it’s been a weak year for overall equity fund inflows (TARA vs TINA), equity inflows have been gaining momentum recently."

Goldman Sachs

19. Client flows. Across BoFA clients, Tech led inflows last week (first since June) while Industrial led outflows (8th straight week of outflows) and Financials saw their 4th consecutive week of inflows.

BofA

20. Small-cap flows. "After extreme 1H outflows, small caps have seen inflows the past six weeks."

BofA

21. Growth vs. Value flows. Flows into Value ETFs > flows into Growth ETFs.

BofA

22. Retail flows vs. sentiment. "Retail involvement is still lower than that implied by bullish sentiment."

Credit Suisse

23. Retail options trading. "Retail traders make up ~27% of all options-trading activity, below the pandemic peak of almost 30% but well above levels in early 2020."

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@gunjanjs

24. Financials vs. yield curve. "Financials is the sector to watch as the yield curve steepens. Sector valuations tend to follow the curve."

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@ginamartinadams

25. Energy vs. SPX. "The growth to value rotation appears to be resurging at full steam, coinciding with inflation rates potentially in the process of bottoming."

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@tavicosta

26. Energy vs. Tech. "Energy sector (blue) in lead right now in terms of % of members above 50d moving average … Tech (orange) fading fast when looking at same metric."

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@lizannsonders

27. Mega-caps vs. micro-caps. "Mega cap stocks are becoming a larger share of the market. From 1996 to 2022, megacaps have grown from 7% to 13% of the market. Over the same period, microcaps have declined from 56% to 33%."

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@koyfincharts (get 10% off your subscription here)

28. Coppock Curve. "When [the] Coppock Curve indicator turns positive the market is up 25% of the time over the next month."

Credit Suisse

29. 1% moves. "The index has only moved +1% up or down from close to close on 42 days so far in 2023 vs 122 last year, which was 2 standard deviations above the annual mean."

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@DataTrekMB

30. First-year bull markets. "The S&P 500 has dropped at least 5% in the first year of the past 10 bull markets (and 10% or more in three of them!)."

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@callieabost

Thanks for reading!

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