Daily Chartbook

Share this post

Daily Chartbook #253

www.dailychartbook.com

Discover more from Daily Chartbook

The day's best charts & insights, curated.
Over 11,000 subscribers
Continue reading
Sign in

Daily Chartbook #253

Catch up on the day in 30 charts

Daily Chartbook
Aug 8, 2023
43
Share this post

Daily Chartbook #253

www.dailychartbook.com
1
Share

Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: the day’s best charts & insights, curated.


1. Shelter inflation. "Our baseline forecast suggests that year-over-year shelter inflation will continue to slow through late 2024 and may even turn negative by mid-2024...The deflationary component of this forecast would be the most severe contraction in shelter inflation since the Global Financial Crisis of 2007-09."

SF Fed

2. Supply chain. "The supply chain, freight, and Dry Bulk Indices are turning and they are shaking off a massive disinflation since last June…It is notable change that is dashing the hopes of bond bulls for deflation at the end of the disinflation rainbow."

Image
@NewEdgeWealth via @carlquintanilla

3. Used cars. Wholesale used-vehicle prices fell 1.6% in July and are now down 11.6% YoY.

Manheim

4. GDP outlook. BofA made "big ole upward GDP growth revisions."

Image
BofA via @mikezaccardi

5. Recession probabilities. Across asset classes, only base metals are discounting a recession. 

JPMorgan

6. Temp employment. "In the pre-Covid era, the recent trend in temporary unemployment would have been consistent with permanent private job growth running at about 100K, just half the current three month average pace."

Pantheon Macro

7. Inflation expectations. "Market-implied inflation expectations over the next 5-10 years have risen to the highest levels in more than a year. Traders are starting to game out a future with sustainably higher inflation and higher long-term bond yields."

Image
@lisaabramowicz1

8. Credit card debt. "After several months of solid increases, including a near-record $14.8 billion in April, in June credit card debt actually dropped by $0.6 billion - the first negative print since April 2021."

Zero Hedge

9. Crypto flows. "Digital asset investment products saw outflows [last] week, totaling US$107m with profit taking gathering pace in recent weeks."

CoinShares

10. Oil positioning. "Oil products net managed money surged by 30mb [last] week, and now stands at percentile 66."

Goldman Sachs

11. IG bonds. "Ninety-one percent of US investment grade bonds are trading below par."

Torsten Sløk

12. Bond yields vs. Fed. "UST yields rise and the curve flat-tens before the last Fed hike and yields fall and the curve steepens after the last Fed hike."

JPMorgan

13. Bonds flows. After attracting $4.9bn in the week ending Aug 2, US bonds have now seen inflows for 19 consecutive weeks.

TD Securities

14. Treasuries bets (I). "Bets against Treasury futures hit another record."

Deutsche Bank via The Daily Shot

15. Treasuries bets (II). "Leveraged fund increased net-short positions of longer-maturity Treasuries derivatives to the most since figures going back to 2010...Asset managers took opposite bets, taking their own net-bullish positions to an all-time high."

Bloomberg

16. Stocks vs. bonds. "Equity correlations to fixed income have exploded higher over the last month, reaching new highs on a 20yr lookback."

Goldman Sachs

17. Market sentiment. "Morgan Stanley's market sentiment indicator remains risk-negative."

Image
Morgan Stanley via @isabelnet_sa

18. Risk sentiment indicators. "To put a line under current positioning, on a scale of -10 to +10, again my sense for current length in US equities is +6." 

GS Tony Pasquariello

19. Call delta. S&P 500 options traders bought the most call delta in several years in July.

Morgan Stanley

20. Sell-off sensitivity. Vol control funds are increasingly sensitive to a 2% market sell-off.

Deutsche Bank

21. Potential supply. "Equity leverage in Vol Target funds and trend following CTAs are each in the 88th%ile versus history. That means significant potential supply in a selloff."

Morgan Stanley

22. Equity positioning (I). "The GS sentiment indicator remains positive."

Image
Goldman Sachs via @isabelnet_sa

23. Equity positioning (II). Aggregate equity positioning edged lower as systematic strategies rose modestly higher while discretionary investors have given back ~1/3 of the increase since late May.

Deutsche Bank

24. CTAs vs. equities. CTA exposure to equities is in the 85th percentile.

Deutsche Bank

25. Global sector flows. Tech funds continue to attract inflows.


26. HFs vs. Discretionary. "US Consumer Discretionary was heavily net sold [by hedge funds last] week driven by long-and-short sales...notional net selling was the largest since Nov ’22 and ranks in the 85th percentile versus the past five years."

Goldman Sachs

27. Asset manager futures exposure. "Asset manager net exposure in futures (i.e. longs-shorts) as a share of gross (longs + shorts) is at 50%, just a touch off historical highs."

Morgan Stanley

28. New highs. "Swift move lower last week for % of members making a new 52-week high for S&P 500 (blue) and NASDAQ (orange)."

Image
@lizannsonders

29. Earnings reactions (I). "The stock of a company that has beaten estimates is down an average of 0.5 percent from the 2 days before its release to 2 days after…[which] is the worst response to earnings beats in the last 5 years."

image
Fact Set via DataTrek Research

30. Earnings reactions (II). And finally, earnings reactions have been particularly negative for growth stocks.

BofA

Thanks for reading!

43
Share this post

Daily Chartbook #253

www.dailychartbook.com
1
Share
1 Comment
Share this discussion

Daily Chartbook #253

www.dailychartbook.com
derek
Aug 8

Thanks. I’m curious if any of you know about the track record of the San Francisco Fed regarding chart number one in this post re their projected shelter inflation.

Anybody know what level of credibility and reliability their forecasts have?

Expand full comment
Reply
Share
Top
New
Community

No posts

Ready for more?

© 2023 Daily Chartbook
Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Start WritingGet the app
Substack is the home for great writing