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Daily Chartbook #246

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Daily Chartbook #246

Catch up on the day in 30 charts

Daily Chartbook
Jul 28, 2023
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Daily Chartbook #246

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Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: the day’s best charts & insights, curated.


1. Home prices. "The typical U.S. home sold for roughly $382,000 during the four weeks ending July 23, up 2.6% from a year earlier, the biggest increase since November."

Redfin

2. Active listings. "Active listings dropped 16.9% from a year earlier, the biggest drop since February 2022...[they] were down slightly from a month earlier; typically, they post month-over-month increases at this time of year."

Redfin

3. Rent prices. "US Rents are 0.7% lower than a year ago, the biggest YoY decline since January 2021."

Image
@charliebilello

4. Pending home sales. Pending home sales ticked up unexpectedly by 0.3% (vs. -0.5% est) after declining 2.5% last month. Sales are down 14.8% YoY.

Zero Hedge

5. Truckload volumes. "Truckload volumes are up 15% from their YTD lows (excluding holidays). They are breaking the typical seasonal cycle of flat to down volumes in most Julys. Combine this with Yellow declaring bankruptcy, and we could have a very interesting back half of 2023."

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@lukefalasca

6. Signing bonuses. "Approximately 4.9% of all US job postings mentioned a signing bonus in June, down from recent highs of 5.6% set in September 2022, but well above the pre-pandemic average of 1.8%."

Line graph titled “Employers are still utilizing signing bonuses” with a vertical axis ranging from 2% to 5% tracking the share of US job postings on Indeed advertising pay upon hire. The ratio slowly picked up in 2020 then accelerated in 2021/2022, but has started a path of moderate decline in the last nine months.  
Nick Bunker

7. Jobless claims. "Initial jobless claims declined -7,000 to 221,000. The 4 week average declined -3,750 to 233,750. With a one week lag, continuing claims declined -50,000 to 1.690 million. All of these are generally 5 month lows."

The Bonddad Blog

8. Q2 GDP. "The US economy grew at a 2.4% annualized pace last quarter. Consumer spending led growth once again. Business spending grew the most in 6 quarters."

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@callieabost

9. Real consumer spending. "2Q23 personal consumption +1.6% (q/q ann.) vs. +1.2% est. & +4.2% in prior quarter."

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@lizannsonders

10. PCE Prices (I). "US GDP Price Index falls to 2.2% in Q2 2023 after hitting 9% in Q2 2022."

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@bespokeinvest

11. PCE Prices (II). "2Q23 Core PCE Price Index +3.8% (q/q ann.) vs. +4% est. & +4.9% prior."

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@lizannsonders

12. Durable goods (I). "The headline orders printed a 4.7% MoM surge (almost 4x the expected 1.3% rise) - that is the biggest monthly rise in durable goods orders since July 2020."

Zero Hedge

13. Durable goods (II). "Excluding transportation, orders climbed only 0.6%, which makes sense given the 69.6% surge in non-defense aircraft orders."

Zero Hedge

14. Inventories. "June retail inventories (blue) +0.7% m/m vs. +0.4% est. & +0.8% prior; wholesale inventories (orange) -0.3% vs. -0.1% est. & -0.3% prior."

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@lizannsonders

15. Gas prices. "Gasoline futures suggest that prices at the pump, already their highest in three months, have further to rise."

John Authers

16. Oil consumption. "The world is consuming more crude than ever…we use enough crude to fill about 6,500 Olympic-size swimming pools every day."

Javier Blas

17. O&G rigs. "Energy companies just reported the steepest decline in operating rigs in 3 years."

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@tavicosta

18. Commodity ETF flows. "Broad-based commodity ETFs took in more than 600 million USD last week, the biggest one-week haul since March of 2022."

CSC Commodities

19. Stocks vs. bonds. "Markets are offering the best incentive pricing for half a century to rebalance portfolios away from equities and back into bonds, equaling only the extreme divergence seen in January 2000."

No brainer
Macro Strategy via TME

20. HFs vs. China. "Hedge funds net bought Chinese equities on Tuesday (7/25) at the fastest pace since Oct '22...notional net buying ranks in the 99th percentile vs. the past five years."

Goldman Sachs

21. HFs vs China (II). "Hedge fund investors’ net exposures to Chinese stocks (relative to their global equity holdings) are still 460bps below where they were in January this year."

Goldman Sachs

22. Global equity flows. "The latest squeeze is basically a US love story only. US has been the main beneficiary of equity inflows."

A US love story
Barclays via TME

23. Global Risk-Love. "Global Equity Risk-Love, our contrarian sentiment indicator for equities, has risen from near-panic in March to the 78th percentile now, with optimism brewing in almost all factors...except positioning."

BofA

24. Global Risk-Love (II). Risk-Love Indicator heatmap.

BofA

25. Put/call ratio. "30-day average of equity put/call ratio (from CBOE) hovering near lowest since April 2022 and near lower end of range going back a couple decades."

Image
@lizannsonders

26. Margin debt. A reversal higher in margin debt suggests higher risk appetite among investors.

BofA

27. Active managers. Active managers continue adding exposure. NAAIM Equity Exposure Index ticked up to 101.8 from 99.1, the highest since November 2021.

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NAAIM

28. AAII sentiment. "Investor sentiment turned more Bullish. Net % Bullish in the 77th percentile. Bearish +3%, Neutral +2%."

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@sophiaknowledge

29. Communications discount. "Despite a huge rally Ytd, communications remains extremely discounted vs. the S&P 500. Relative PE is 4.3 standard deviations below pre-pandemic 5y average. EPS growth is expected to lead the S&P 500 in 2Q and could outstrip it by 1,870 bps from 3Q-2Q24."

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@ginamartinadams

30. VIX seasonality. And finally—as we enter a seasonally volatile period—today's 9.26% spike in the VIX was the largest since early May. 

Bottom picking VIX
Equity Clock via TME

Thanks for reading!

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Daily Chartbook #246

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Daily Chartbook #246

www.dailychartbook.com
Kurt
Jul 28Liked by Daily Chartbook

Great stuff. Thank you

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bird
Jul 28Liked by Daily Chartbook

love this daily amalgamation. thx!

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