Daily Chartbook

Share this post

Daily Chartbook #242

www.dailychartbook.com

Discover more from Daily Chartbook

The day's best charts & insights, curated.
Over 11,000 subscribers
Continue reading
Sign in

Daily Chartbook #242

Catch up on the day in 30 charts

Daily Chartbook
Jul 22, 2023
52
Share this post

Daily Chartbook #242

www.dailychartbook.com
2
Share

Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: the day’s best charts & insights, curated.


1. Mortgage rates. "The average rate for a 30-year fixed loan dropped to 6.78% from 6.96% the previous week, the highest level since November 2022."

Fast Reveal via @c_barraud

2. Earnings vs. housing. Recent growth in real average hourly earnings suggests rising mortgage applications ahead. Strong housing demand "will raise the floor on real growth and inflation, and prove that the Fed’s insistence on the economy’s return to 2012-19 dynamics will be wrong."

The housing bull
Steven Blitz - TS Lombard via TME

3. Auto loans. "U.S. auto loan rejections have soared."

Image
@guydealership

4. Global inflation. "We've come a long way from inflation peak in most economies."

Image
@skylardaithi

5. Inflation swaps. "Inflation swaps imply that y/y [US] CPI will have a tough time falling much over the next few months, and in fact inch up over the summer. Expected to be near 2% in spring 2024 though.

Image
@lizyoungstrat

6. Risk appetite vs. ISM. Global risk appetite is implying ISM new orders of ~60…

Credit Suisse

7. ISM vs. GDP. …which is implying 4% GDP growth.

Credit Suisse

8. Oil rig count. The Baker Hughes crude oil rig count fell to 530 from 537 making the lowest count since March 2022. It was the 6th consecutive drop.

Koyfin (get 10% off)

9. Gold purchases. There have “been record central bank purchases of gold of 1,224 tonnes in the past four quarters to 1Q23.”

Jefferies

10. IG bond flows. Corporate IG bonds saw their first outflow in 16 weeks.

BofA


11. T-bill flows. BofA private clients sold a record amount to T-Bills over the past week.

BofA

12. Stocks vs. bonds. "Technicals show that stocks are very overbought relative to bonds."

@lvieweconomics via The Daily Shot

13. Main Street vs. Wall Street. "There is a growing divide between optimism on Main Street and optimism on Wall Street. Despite being closely aligned for the last 4 years, recent trends show that retail investors are currently much more positive than institutional investors."

Image
Goldman Sachs via @marlin_capital
See:
Marlin Capital

14. Retail squeeze. "There appears [to] be a heavy retail component to what's been driving the price action over the past two months."

Goldman Sachs

15. Options activity. "The trend in CBOE equity call volume has surged 30%+ over the past two months. Speculation is back in style."

Image
@williedelwiche
See:
Hi Mount Research

16. Tech flows. Tech has seen strong inflows over the past 8 weeks. 

BofA

17. Equity fund flows. "US equity funds and ETFs saw $1.71bn outflows this week."

Image
BofA via @isabelnet_sa, @mikezaccardi

18. Equity allocation. BofA private client equity allocation is above average at 61%.

BofA

19. HF long exposure. "Despite equity indices rallying since early June, we’ve now observed five consecutive weeks where HFs have been net sellers of N. American longs in net terms."

Morgan Stanley

20. HF sector exposure. "HF long exposure (as a % total N. Am long exposure) to Energy, Materials, and Utilities is tracking near lows over the past decade."

Morgan Stanley

21. HF sector short covering. Since the beginning of June, "Autos was the most covered industry across all sectors by a fairly wide margin."

Morgan Stanley

22. Short flow. "While Most Short, High Retail Sentiment, and Cyclical sectors such as Energy, Consumer Disc, Industrials, and Financials have seen sizable covers recently, Defensives and TMT stocks have seen a notable increase in shorts."

Goldman Sachs

23. Cyclicals vs. Defensives. "Global cyclicals are overextended relative to global defensive."

Image
@lvieweconomics

24. Market breadth. "Breadth has materially improved, but mega-cap Growth has continued to lead. However, sentiment may be nearing an extreme. The combined market cap of eight tech-related stocks has surpassed the combined market cap of Energy, Materials, Industrials, Financials, and Real Estate."

Image
@_rob_anderson

25. Q2 earnings update (I). With 18% of the S&P 500 reported, the blended earnings and growth rates are -9% and -0.3%, respectively.

Fact Set

26. Q2 earnings update (II). The blended net profit margin is 11.1%..."If 11.1% is the actual net profit margin for the quarter, it will mark the sixth straight quarter in which the net profit margin for the index has declined year-over-year."

Fact Set

27. Realized vs. implied moves. "The average realized move this earnings season has been +/-4.6% vs a +/-3.6% implied move 5 days prior to earnings...It’s rare to see the average realized move outperform the implied move by this much, or at all."

Goldman Sachs

28. Retracement. "The S&P 500 has crossed above the 76.4% retracement of its peak-to-trough decline. After all declines of 20%+ (bear markets) since 1929, the retracement proved the start of a new uptrend. No retests of former lows. Gains post the 76% retrace were stronger than average."

Image
@ginamartinadams

29. Coppock Curve. The "slope has turned up in mid April, and the indicator itself has now turned positive. With the exception of 2001, this has consistently signaled the start of a new bull market."

Credit Suisse

30. Analysts capitulation. And finally, most Wall Street firms have revised up their SPX price targets for 2023...“It’s literally almost a strategist short squeeze."

John Authers

Have a great weekend!

52
Share this post

Daily Chartbook #242

www.dailychartbook.com
2
Share
2 Comments
Share this discussion

Daily Chartbook #242

www.dailychartbook.com
Bitcoin Fortress
Writes Bitcoin Fortress Newsletter
Jul 23

Excellent. Thanks!

Expand full comment
Reply
Share
derek
Jul 23

Excellent work thank you 🙏

Expand full comment
Reply
Share
Top
New
Community

No posts

Ready for more?

© 2023 Daily Chartbook
Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Start WritingGet the app
Substack is the home for great writing