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Daily Chartbook #234

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Daily Chartbook #234

Catch up on the day in 29 charts

Daily Chartbook
Jul 12, 2023
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Daily Chartbook #234

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Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: the day’s best charts & insights, curated.


1. Home prices. "CoreLogic reaffirms its outlook of +4.5% U.S. home price growth over the next 12 months."

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@newslambert

2. Office investment. "Data on office vacancy rates, which lead office investment, points to sharper declines ahead…We expect office investment to fall an additional 30% cumulatively by the end of 2024."

Goldman Sachs

3. Excess savings. "At this rate this [excess savings] ‘nest egg’ will not be eliminated for another 9-10 months. However, we believe a major weakening of the labor market would change attitudes .. causing spendable ‘excess savings’ to become protected ‘precautionary savings'."

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BofA via @carlquintanilla

4. Fed balance sheet. "Worth noting that thru last week, spike in Fed's balance sheet (which coincided with banking stress earlier this year) has been completely undone ... total assets now at lowest since mid-2021."

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@lizannsonders

5. Fed vs. FCI. "The GS Financial Conditions Index is back at levels first seen a year ago (when the Fed was still at a 3-handle), yet the terminal rate is now at 5.4%. If the Fed is trying to solve for tighter financial conditions, it is not being very successful."

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@timmerfidelity

6. FCI-G. "The [Fed's] ‘home office’ in Washington has a new take on measuring financial conditions which is getting a lot of buzz. It shows current conditions are much tighter than other widely used measures."

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@datatrekmb

7. PE dry powder. "Private equities have a record amount of dry powder."

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BofA via @mikezaccardi

8. NFIB Small Business Optimism. The "index had a very good mix in today's release.  Lower pricing/inflation and job openings hard to fill (-2) versus increases in business outlook (+10). Headline index +1.6 to 91 (vs 89.9 est)."

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@macro84

9. Redbook. Redbook retail sales growth went negative (-0.4%) YoY for the first time since March 2020.

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@sophiaknowledge

10. Online inflation. "Prices of goods sold online fell 2.6% in June from a year earlier...It was the biggest drop since May 2020, and the 10th straight month in which there’s been a year-on-year decline."

Adobe via Bloomberg


11. Inflation drivers. Labor "is now the most important contributor to inflation — which makes sense as it is in services, where costs are dominated by labor, that inflation is most problematic."

relates to The Hardest Part Is Getting Back Down Again
TS Lombard via John Authers

12. CPI Nowcast. "The Cleveland Fed’s Inflation nowcast suggests tomorrow’s CPI report will be in line w/ forecasts. We're watching monthly core inflation most closely, which at 0.4%/month is proving quite sticky. We’re not in 1970s territory, but nor are we anything close to the 1990s–2010s."

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@datatrekmb

13. CPI implied move. "S&P options are currently implying a 1-day move of 50bps post the CPI release...This is roughly in line with an average realized move of 60bps YTD."

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Barclays

14. Stocks vs. bonds. "Fundamental and technical indicators point to bonds being attractive relative to stocks."

Alpine Macro via The Daily Shot

15. Bond positioning. "Bets against Treasury futures remain extreme (and profitable)."

Deutsche Bank via The Daily Shot

16. Exposure plans (I). Only 11% of JPMorgan clients plan to decrease bond portfolio duration. 

JPMorgan

17. Exposure plans (II). Just 26% plan to increase equity exposure.

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JPMorgan

18. Investor flows. "Another big week for interest in risk assets … large-cap and broad equity ETFs collectively took in >$18 billion last week; fixed income ETFs had smaller inflows … for month of July, large- and mid-cap equity ETFs held largest share of inflows at nearly 55%."

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Arbor Data via @lizannsonders

19. Investor positioning. "The GS sentiment indicator remains stretched."

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Goldman Sachs via @isabelnet_sa

20. Retail participation. “The recent rally in equities saw a strong uptick in retail participation as single stock option activity almost doubled in Q2.”

Barclays

21. CTA flows. “Over the next 1 week...Flat tape:-$9.5bn to sell [globally] (+$1.4bn SPX to buy); Up tape: $9bn to buy (-$226m SPX to sell); Down tape:-$43bn to sell (-$9.7bn SPX).”

Goldman Sachs

22. Post retracement. "AFTER retracing 50% of bear market (4,800 to 3,500, up to 4,200)...historically the average MAX Downside️ is 6% and average MAX UPside  is 20% from the signal date. Downside potential far more limited than upside potential."

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@sethCL

23. SPX vs. VIX. "Over the last month, $VIX and $SPX have become best friends."

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@andrewthrasher
See:
Thrasher Analytics Substack

24. SPX vs. macro. "More and more macroeconomic indicators are reversing to a bullish condition. After similar reversals, the S&P 500 was higher six months later in all but one case."

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@deanchristians

25. Econ Surprise vs. EPS beats. "Economic Surprise Index points to a big 8% EPS beat this quarter based on the historical relationship."

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BofA via @mikezaccardi

26. Q2 earnings. "Consensus expects earnings to fall 7.3% y/y but then trend higher. Notable is the implied margin expansion beginning in Q4 (earnings > revenue growth), investors will be looking for guidance from management teams to validate that."

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@lizyoungstrat

27. Profit margins. The "pace of margin deterioration started decelerating."

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BofA via @mikezaccardi

28. SPX ATHs. "Going back to 1950, this is currently the 9th longest stretch without the S&P 500 making a new all-time high."

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@williedelwiche
See:
Hi Mount Research

29. Cyclicals breadth. And finally, “two of the most cyclical sectors -- Consumer Discretionary and Industrials -- have the two strongest cumulative A/D line readings.”

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@bespokeinvest

Thanks for reading!

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Daily Chartbook #234

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Daily Chartbook #234

www.dailychartbook.com
Steven VanHeyningen
Jul 12Liked by Daily Chartbook

Redbook Sales Chart.....very interesting !!!

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dan niles
Jul 12

Always useful information

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