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Daily Chartbook #22

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Daily Chartbook #22

Catch up on the day in 33 charts

Daily Chartbook
Aug 18, 2022
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Daily Chartbook #22

www.dailychartbook.com

Welcome back to PAV Chartbook: market charts, data, research, and insights pulled from various sources around the Internet by a solo retail investor.


1. EIA. The US Energy Information Administration’s report in charts.

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@ole_s_hansen

2. Low US storage. Storage levels for crude with SPR (Strategic Petroleum Reserve), gasoline, distillate, and jet fuel are very low.

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@HFI_research

4. UK CPI. Inflation in the UK reached double-digits (10%) for the first time in 40 years, fueled by rising prices for “transport and housing & household services (i.e. heating your house)”.

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@lvieweconomics

5. UK vs. US, core. Year-over-year core CPI—which excludes food and energy—in the UK (white, 6.2%) is now higher than it is in the US (yellow, 5.9%).

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@thestalwart

6. Rising expenses. Low-income households are struggling to pay bills

Goldman via TME

7. Retirement savings (I). According to an Anytime Estimate Retirement Finances Survey, 63% of Americans tapped into their retirement savings because of Covid.

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@mayhem4markets

8. Retirement savings (II). The top reason Americans don’t save for retirement is that they don’t earn enough.

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@mayhem4markets

9. Retirement savings (III). And most have not saved enough for retirement.

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@mayhem4markets

10. College cost simmer. For the first time in 30 years, college tuition and fees for both public and nonprofit universities have declined.

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@lizannsonders


11. Retail sales (I). Retail sales stalled with no growth in July.

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@lizannsonders

12. Retail sales (II). Retail sales excluding autos (bottom chart), on the other hand, unexpectedly increased by 0.4% (consensus was -0.1%).

Zero Hedge

13. Retail sales (III). Year-over-year, retail sales (red) are up 10.3% while core retail sales (green) are up 8.7%.

Zero Hedge

14. Retail sales (IV). Topline contributors (YoY%).

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@kathyjones

15. Retail sales (V). Sales were higher across all categories except “autos, gasoline, and general merchandise stores”.

Zero Hedge

16. Retail sales (VI). Here are the volumes of sales by category after adjusting for inflation.

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@gregdaco

17. Retail sales (VII). After adjusting for inflation, retail sales are “down 1.1% over the last 6 months”. Nominal retail sales are up 3.6% over the same period.

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@charliebilello

18. Business inventories (I). Business inventories increased by an expected 1.4%, with stocks increasing most for retailers and merchant wholesalers while slowing significantly for manufacturers.

Census.gov

19. Business inventories (II). Inventories are up an alarming 18.5% year-over-year.

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@northmantrader

20. Chip outlook. Supply for memory chips—which are among the most sensitive semiconductor segments to global economic performance—is forecast to outstrip demand in 2023.

Bloomberg

21. Recession probabilities. From Goldman Sachs: “our subjective probability that the economy enters a recession in the next 12 months is the highest in the Euro area (60%) and the UK (35%) followed by the US (30%), Canada (30%), and Australia (25%).”

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@mikeziccardi

22. Leader morale. Bosses are not confident.

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@michaelaarouet

23. Cash is still king. A look at where global fund managers are overweight.

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BofA via @mayhem4markets

24. PCE catalyst. “Most fund managers believe that PCE dropping significantly is the biggest catalyst for a Fed pivot.”

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@mayhem4markets

25. Real income to rise? Goldman expects “real income to pick up as headline inflation moderates (despite slower job growth)”.

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@mikeziccardi

26. Fed odds. FOMC minutes released today were taken as dovish by the market. Morning odds favored a 75bps September hike. By the end of the day 50bps was seen as more likely

CME Group

27. Q3 GDP. Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for GDP growth in Q3 moved down to 1.6% from 1.8% yesterday.

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@northmantrader

28. Ending with equities. Secular growth stocks are still very expensive on a price-to-sales basis.

Jeffries via TME

29. Earnings (I). With more than 90% of S&P reported, 82% met or exceeded Wall Street's expectations. Real estate (97%), industrials (90%), and energy (90%) were the leaders in the percentage of stocks that beat or met estimates.

Bernstein via TME

30. Earnings (II). “Earnings and Sales surprises are below the numbers we've seen over the last two years but above the longer-term averages this season”.

Bernstein via TME

31. Earnings (III). The breadth of beats on earnings and sales was broad across all sectors.

Bernstein via TME

32. Earnings (IV). The companies getting the most positive earnings revisions are those with higher exposure to US revenues.

Bernstein via TME

33. US vs. World. And finally—if you’re going to invest—make sure you have exposure to US equities...

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@granthawkridge

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Daily Chartbook #22

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