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Daily Chartbook #213
Catch up on the day in 30 charts
Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: the day’s best charts & insights, curated.
1. Mortgage demand. "MBA mortgage applications were down (-1.4%) for the 4th week in a row but the declines have moderated. The purchase index was down -1.75% and refinance index was down -0.7%."
2. Cash buyers. "One-third (33.4%) of U.S. home purchases were made in cash in April, up from 30.7% a year earlier and comparable with February’s 33.5% share, which was the highest in nine years."
3. OECD outlook. "Global GDP growth in 2023 is projected to be 2.7%, the lowest annual rate since the global financial crisis, with the exception of the 2020 pandemic period."
4. Global supply chain. "The Global Supply Chain Pressure Index fell to -1.71 in May from -1.35 the month before, marking the lowest level on record in data stretching back to 1997...It peaked at 4.31 in December 2021."
5. Used cars. Used car prices fell 2.7% MoM in May and 7.6% YoY.
6. Bank withdrawals. "Deposit outflow still happening in banking system ... large and small banks have seen continued withdrawals as many depositors opt for higher yield elsewhere."
7. Recession odds. "Latest US recession odds from attendees at a Deutsche Bank conference yesterday. Most interesting finding is 28% think it will be totally inconsequential in nature and for markets."
8. M&A activity. "M&A activity has declined over the past two years, and this trend will continue, driven lower by central banks increasing the costs of capital as they continue to fight inflation."
9. Indeed wage tracker. "US posted wages grew 5.3% year-over-year in May 2023, a marked decline from its peak of 9.3% in January 2022...At its current rate of deceleration, posted wage growth would return to its 2019 average of 3.1% late this year or early in 2024."
10. Consumer credit. “Consumer credit +$23bn in April -- largest gain since Nov '22. Consumers more reliant on credit to finance their outlays amidst elevated prices, reduced savings and slower disposable income momentum.”
11. Q2 GDP. "The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2023 is 2.2 percent on June 7, up from 2.0 percent on June 1."
12. Strategic Petroluem Reserves. "For the 10th straight week, the Biden admin drained the SPR (-1.8mm barrels last week to a fresh 40-year low)."
13. US petroluem inventories. "US commercial petroleum inventories rose by 12.8 MMbbl last week. Modest 0.5 MMbbl crude draw overwhelmed by a *much* larger build in products."
14. Oversold commodities. "Commodities appear deeply oversold relative to the S&P 500."
15. Investor Intelligence sentiment. "Most bulls and fewest bears since Nov 2021. Expansion in optimism is encouraging and not yet excessive. A bounce can climb a wall of worry, but it takes bulls to have a bull market."
16. News sentiment. "The Global News Pulse, which quantifies sentiment in stock-related news, has improved for five months and positive news now outweighs negative news (+1%) for the first time since July-22."
17. Exposure plans. Few respondents to JPMorgan's client survey have plans to increase equity exposure.
18. Call/put ratio. "The call/put ratio in the US is already starting to get pretty optimistic again."
19. Put/call ratio. "Put/Call Ratio is now at its lowest level in over 2 years."
20. Small-cap options. A record amount of $IWM call options were traded yesterday.
21. Small-cap positioning. "Russell 2000 futures positioning is far from stretched."
22. Small-cap performance. "Small caps doing well of late, but only 5% of members in Russell 2000 have made a new 52-week high … quite low when compared to prior moves off major market lows."
23. Hedge funds cyclicals vs megacap positioning. "Cyclicals positioning are at the lows since peak ’21, and Megacap Tech net positioning is at all-time highs."
24. Hedge funds vs. MAGMA. Among hedge funds, “MAGMA collectively now accounts for 16.7% of total US single stock net exposure, the highest level since May ’20 and vs. peak level of ~18% seen in March ’20.”
25. Hedge funds vs. real estate. "For the past month, HFs were net buyers of Real Estate through the month as they added to gross exposure in ~80/20 split between long adds and short adds respectively."
26. Homebuilders. "Since home builders' stocks found recent trough last June, forward P/E (blue) is up by 157% and forward EPS (orange) are down by 30%."
27. Global equity positioning. "Investors have not yet adopted a risk-on mentality when it comes to global equity funds."
28. SPX vs. Fed balance sheet. "Over the last 13 years there have been major divergences between Federal Reserve Balance sheet and S&P 500...Enough to suggest there is no correlation between the two other than sentimental."
29. AI upside. "We assume that widespread #AI adoption boosts productivity growth by 1.5 pp per year over a 10-year period. .: In this scenario, .. S&P 500 fair value would be 9% higher than today, holding all else equal .. and as large as +14%."
30. Top 5 vs. bear markets. "The largest-market-cap stocks and the Nasdaq do not yet look historically overbought...when you compare their behavior to previous bear markets…the Top 5 stocks are underperforming where they have normally been at this point in a bear market."
Thanks for reading!