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Daily Chartbook #209
Catch up on the day in 30 charts
Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: the day’s best charts & insights, curated.
1. Real estate investors. "Investor Home Purchases fell a record 49% YoY in 1Q. That outpaced the 40.7% drop in overall home purchases. 1 in 7 homes (13.5%) sold by an investor in March sold for less than the investor bought it for (just shy of the 7yr high set in Feb)."
2. Problem banks. "Latest update from [the FDIC] shows number of banks on 'Problem Bank List' has increased by 4 from previous quarter to 43 in 1Q23 … total assets held by problem banks were up by $10.5 billion to $58 billion."
3. Credit card delinquencies. "Delinquency rates for credit card borrowers are approaching 2008 levels across all age categories."
4. Student loans. "GS estimates that middle income households receive the biggest boost from student loan forgiveness plan."
5. Challenger job cuts. "U.S.-based employers announced 80,089 cuts in May, a 20% increase from the 66,995 cuts announced one month prior. It is 287% higher than the 20,712 cuts announced in the same month in 2022."
6. ADP employment (I). "Against expectations of a +170k print, the ADP Employment Report shows that the US economy added 278k jobs. The second big beat on a row."
7. ADP employment (II). "Last month brought a broad-based slowdown in pay increases. Job changers saw a gain of 12.1 percent, down a full percentage point from April. For job stayers, the increase was 6.5 percent in May, down from 6.7 percent."
8. Unit labor costs & productivity. "Huge downward revision to 1Q23 unit labor costs (blue), from initial +6.3% q/q to +4.2% … productivity (orange) revised up to -2.1% vs. -2.7% prior."
9. Jobless claims. "Initial claims rose 2,000 to 232,000, while the 4 week moving average declined -2,500 to 229,500. With a one week delay, continuing claims rose 6,000 to 1.795 million."
10. ISM Manufacturing PMI. The index ticked down to 46.9 (vs. 47 expected) from 47.1 for the 7th straight month of contraction. Under the hood, employment increased to the highest since August, prices paid fell back into contraction, and new orders sank to a 4-month low.
11. Construction spending. "Stronger bounce in April construction spending, +1.2% m/m vs. +0.2% est. & +0.3% in prior month … private residential +0.5%; home improvement +1.7%; nonresidential +2.4%; public +1.1%."
12. Liquidity drain. "TS Lombard expects a negative liquidity impact as QT starts to mean something again post-debt ceiling. That's likely to put pressure on the S&P 500."
13. US petroleum inventories. "Total US commercial petroleum inventories rose 11. 3 MMbbl last week, driven by a 4.5 MMbbl build in crude stocks."
14. Strategic Petroleum Reserves. "Biden's strategic drain of the petroleum reserve continues with another 2.5MM gone, the 9th straight week of SPR drains."
15. CTAs vs. oil. "CTAs are buyers in pretty much all scenarios...but so far so good. Don't forget the upcoming weekend OPEC meeting."
16. CTAs vs. commodities. "Big short in energy and still a rather long in precious metals."
17. CTAs vs. stocks. "CTAs are very long SPX and NASDAQ."
18. Active managers. The NAAIM Exposure Index dropped to 53.92 from 65.51.
19. Corporate insiders. "Corp insiders bought shares at quicker pace … in last 30 days, 1,612 insiders bought shares of their companies (most since March 2020); selling momentum picked up, but ratio of insider sellers to buyers fell to lowest level in a year."
20. Investor sentiment. "Investor sentiment has improved from an extreme low, but remains bearish, which tends to be a contrarian bullish signal."
21. AAII sentiment. "Latest AAII sentiment reading shows bulls have got slightly excited and bears are starting to give up, but we are far from extreme readings."
22. Asset flows. "The U.S. saw another heavy month of inflows for money market funds in May ($131.5bil). Bond funds saw inflows of $4.7bil, while equity funds saw $21.1bil in outflows, the fourth straight month of at least $10bil out."
23. Equity flows. "In terms of where equity flows came out of...basically everywhere. The only fund types to see inflows were Developed International & U.S. Large-Cap, while Small-Cap, Mid-Cap and Sector funds saw notable outflows."
24. Buybacks. "Sharp decline in buybacks from record levels in late 2022 and early 2023."
25. QQQ short interest. "The short interest on the $QQQ ETF remains elevated implying that there is still room for further short covering in tech stocks."
26. BTC vs. QQQ. Bitcoin is decoupling from tech stocks.
27. Tech vs. materials. "Massive divergence between growth-oriented Tech (orange) and cyclical-oriented Materials (blue) sectors when measured relative to S&P 500 ... former has soared while latter is plumbing multi-year low."
28. Nasdaq vs. Dow Jones. "Months like May don't happen very often. There have only been eight other months in the Nasdaq's history that it outperformed the Dow by a wider margin."
29. Gross margins. "Margins for the S&P 500 equal-weight index have been deteriorating."
30. Recession indicator. "An indicator based on cyclical stocks inspired by investor Stan Druckenmiller...has been turning down and is closing in on a zone that has previously preceded a recession."
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