Daily Chartbook

Share this post

Daily Chartbook #208

www.dailychartbook.com

Discover more from Daily Chartbook

The day's best charts & insights, curated.
Over 11,000 subscribers
Continue reading
Sign in

Daily Chartbook #208

Catch up on the day in 30 charts

Daily Chartbook
Jun 1, 2023
42
Share this post

Daily Chartbook #208

www.dailychartbook.com
1
Share

Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: the day’s best charts & insights, curated.


1. Mortgage demand. "The contract rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage increased 22 basis points to 6.91% in the week ended May 26...The index for home purchases fell to the lowest level since early March."

Mortgage Rates Highest Since Early November | Increase pushes down US gauge of home-purchase applications
Bloomberg

2. Rent prices. "Rents nationally increase by 0.5% month-over-month; prices up 0.9% year-over-year."

MoM rent growth may23
Apartment List

3. CRE loans. "Banks are losing their appetite. The ratio of money lent out, compared with property value, dropped to a 30-year low in commercial mortgages this spring."

WSJ

4. China recovery slows. "China’s economic recovery weakened in May...Manufacturing activity contracted at a worse pace than in April, while services expansion eased."

China's Economy Weakens | Factory and services activity slow again in May
Bloomberg

5. DM PMIs. "Manufacturing PMIs have been fairly weak recently on both absolute and relative bases."

Manufacturing PMIs fairly weak
Haver via TME

6. Public debt. "Outstanding debt held by the public stood at $23.9 trillion as of the end of 2022. That’s 97% of gross domestic product, using the measure most popular among economists — roughly triple what it was 20 years earlier, and forecast to keep climbing."

Bloomberg

7. Margins vs. inflation. "A newly published study by economists at Georgetown and NYU found no correlation between changes in profit margins and industry-level inflation."

Image
@nicktimaraos

8. JOLTs. Job openings increased to 10.103 million (9.4M expected) while the quits rate ticked down to 2.4%. "They're telling different stories: Openings suggest the labor market is cooling but still *very* hot. Quits suggest the labor market is strong but beginning to look more normal."

Image
@bencasselman

9. Chicago PMI. The index dropped to 40.4 (vs. 47.3 expected) from 48.6 for the 9th straight month of contraction (longest streak since GFC). "New orders, production, and inventories all fell at faster pace (all contracting); supplier deliveries and prices paid rose at slower pace (both expanding) … employment slipped into contraction."

Image
@lizannsonders

10. Dallas Fed services. "Texas/Dallas Fed Services declined -2.9 to -17.3.  Input and selling prices declined.  Employment also weakened."

Image
@macro84


11. Redbook. Redbook retail sales increased 1.2% YoY in May.

Image
@sophiaknowledge

12. Recessionary indicators. "The Citi Economic Surprise index and Copper have fallen since March, suggesting a rising level of economic weakness."

Image
Citigroup via @lanceroberts, TME

13. Oil prices. "After failing to break through the 200-DMA in April, crude oil has now extended its streak of closes below the 200-DMA to 190 trading days.  Fifth longest on record."

Image
@bespokeinvest

14. Bond shorts vs. gold. "Hedge funds have placed a record aggregate short bet across long-dated Treasury futures, a set-up that could spell a rush to bullion if the extreme positioning is unwound."

Image
Bloomberg via @fastrevealnews

15. Private client flows. "BofA’s private clients have been selling stocks."

BofA via The Daily Shot

16. Investor flows. "Flows into equity ETFs starting to strengthen again, but for month of May, large-cap equities made up <5% of inflows ... bond ETFs didn't lose popularity last week, with aggregate bond funds taking in $2 billion last week."

Image
Arbor Data via @lizannsonders

17. Investor Intelligence. "Investors Intelligence bears 23.3%. Lowest since January 2021."

Image
@hmeisler

18. Money market vs. equity flows. "The gap between money markets and equity flows [is] starting to become as wide as it was post the COVID equity low. Equity markets are very strong following 12 months."

The gap between Money Markets and Equity flows
EPFR via TME

19. Tech longs. "Leveraged funds and asset managers are very net long Nasdaq 100 futures."

Image
Deutsche Bank via @isabelnet_sa

20. SPX vs. NDX positioning. "The extreme narrowness of the latest leg of the equity rally, in our view, further leaves the risk/reward for broader equity markets skewed to the downside, evident from the divergence in speculative positioning of SPX and NDX futures."

Not all specs are short
Barclays via TME

21. Hedge fund positioning (I). "Hedge funds are long equities again and should consequently be less of a tailwind for equities."

Image
Barclays via @wallstjesus

22. Hedge fund positioning (II). "They also carry a near-record short position in SPX futures as a partial hedge to their long cash equity."

Image
Barclays via @wallstjesus

23. Computer long positioning. "The combined equities long by ‘computers’ has been playing momentum, increasing the equities long. We are still not at extreme long levels, but the ‘delta’ of the buy has been rather strong lately."

"Computers" are long
Goldman Sachs via TME

24. Cheap small-caps. "Small-caps are relatively inexpensive compared to large-caps."

Image
BofA via @isabelnet_sa

25. FANG valuation. "Forward P/E for largest and most popular growth stocks has surged to 33.7, bringing year/year % change to nearly 63%, surpassing peak reached in September 2020."

Image
@lizannsonders

26. Sector correlation. "1-month correlation between sectors has fallen to multi-year lows."

Image
@andrewthrasher

27. Bellwether stocks. "Here is a look at my custom bellwether stock index... Price is stuck below August highs, with the average stock trend strength composite fading."

Image
@granthawkridge

28. Operating margins. "S&P 500 operating earnings bottomed in Q4 2022."

Alpine Macro via The Daily Shot

29. Seasonality. "Historically, June tends to be a positive month for the S&P 500 in the third year of the US presidential cycle."

Image
BofA via @isabelnet_sa

30. Post-narrow breadth. And finally, “market gains have historically been prevalent once stellar runs by the five largest stocks have ended, with the S&P 500 rising 6.7% on average in the subsequent six months.”

relates to Being Broad-Minded Pays Off in Narrow Markets
BMO Capital via John Authers

Thanks for reading!

42
Share this post

Daily Chartbook #208

www.dailychartbook.com
1
Share
1 Comment
Share this discussion

Daily Chartbook #208

www.dailychartbook.com
Chris
Jun 1Liked by Daily Chartbook

Thanks.

Expand full comment
Reply
Share
Top
New
Community

No posts

Ready for more?

© 2023 Daily Chartbook
Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Start WritingGet the app
Substack is the home for great writing