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Daily Chartbook #206

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Daily Chartbook #206

Catch up on the day in 30 charts

Daily Chartbook
May 27, 2023
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Daily Chartbook #206

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Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: the day’s best charts & insights, curated.

As a reminder: DC will not be published on Monday, May 29.


1. TSA checkpoint. "There was an average of over 2.49 million US airline travelers per day over the last week, the highest number since August 2019."

Image
@charliebilello

2. Chapter 11. "Twenty-seven large debtors have filed for bankruptcy so far in 2023 compared to 40 for all of 2022."

Column chart of Number of new Chapter 11 filings showing Large US bankruptcies by month
Financial Times

3. Personal income & spending. "Personal Income and Spending were both expected to rise significantly on MoM basis and did but spending soared 0.8% MoM. Spending and Income on a YoY basis both rose in April."

Zero Hedge

4. Spending categories. "A look at where Americans spent their dollars in April. Real spending by category."

Image
@joebrusuelas

5. Wage growth. "April Private wages up 5.6%, up from 5.3% in March...April Government wages up 5.3%, up from 5.1% in March."

Zero Hedge

6. PCE (I). Headline and core PCE both came in higher than expected, rising 0.4% each in April (the largest monthly gains since January) with both readings ticking up YoY.

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@lizannsonders

7. PCE (II). "Core PCE services excluding housing, a widely watched measure because it strips out goods (which are slowing) and shelter (expected to slow), rose 0.42% in April" and is running at 4.4% on a 3-month annualized basis.

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@nicktimiraos

8. PCE (III). "Cyclical core PCE inflation, which tracks inflationary pressures that are linked to the current economic cycle, is at the highest on record going back to 1985."

Zero Hedge

9. Durable goods (I). "April durable goods orders +1.1% m/m vs. -1% est. & +3.3% prior (rev up from +3.2%); core orders (ex-transportation) -0.2% vs. -0.1% est. & +0.3% prior … year/year trend for headline orders (orange) has softened to +2.9%."

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@lizannsonders

10. Durable goods (II). "Most notable was the value of core capital goods orders, a proxy for investment in equipment that excludes aircraft and military hardware, which soared 1.4% last month (although YoY was the lowest since Dec 2020)."

Zero Hedge


11. Consumer sentiment. "UMich Consumer Sentiment Index (blue) revised higher for May, up to 59.2 vs. 57.7 initially; expectations (orange) up from 53.4 to 55.4."

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@lizannsonders

12. Inflation expectations. Consumers' expectations for 1-year ahead inflation fell to 4.2% from 4.6% while those for 5-year ahead inflation ticked up to 3.1% from 3%.

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@nicktimaraos

13. Q2 GDP. "The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2023 is 1.9 percent on May 26, down from 2.9 percent on May 17."

Atlanta Fed

14. Fed funds rate. "We still expect the Fed to keep policy rates unchanged at its June meeting, but it is a close call. We see three conditions for a Fed hike. 1) strong data, 2) a debt ceiling increase, and 3) subdued regional bank stress."

Image
BofA via @mikezaccardi

15. Basis trade. "Hedge fund short positioning in futures markets hits record."

Maximum Futures Short | Hedge-fund short positioning in futures market hits a record
Bloomberg

16. USD overvalued. "The dollar’s real-effective exchange rate continues to look expensive on a long-term basis, even after the last eight-months’ sell-off."

Simon White via Zero Hedge

17. Global equity flows. "Global equity flows now flat YTD, in contrast to big inflows of $175bn in '22, $949bn in '21 and $182bn in '20."

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BofA via @mikezaccardi

18. Equity fund flows. "US equity funds and ETFs saw weekly inflows of $0.92 billion."

Image
BofA via @isabelnet_sa

19. Equity positioning. "Retail investor positioning remains light."

Vanda Research via The Daily Shot

20. Active managers. The  NAAIM Exposure Index increased to 65.5 from 59.

NAAIM

21. Private client flows (I). "BofA private clients continue to be modest sellers of stocks in 2023, sitting out the equity highs & lows in high-yielding cash & fixed income instruments."

Image
BofA via @mikezaccardi

22. Private client flows (II). "BofA’s private clients have been dumping energy stocks."

BofA via The Daily Shot

23. Q1 earnings (I). "Corporate America's ability to maintain profit margins was again demonstrated by a robust 1Q 2023 earnings report, beating expectations by a wide margin."

Image
BofA via @isabelnet_sa

24. Q1 earnings (II). With 97% of the S&P 500 reported, the earnings and revenue growth rates are -2.1% and +4.15%, respectively. 

Fact Set

25. Sales and earnings growth. Year-over-year "sales and earnings growth [for the largest 5 S&P 500 stocks] have been lagging compared to the rest of the index."

Image
NDR via @_rob_anderson

26. Earnings progression. "If the consensus estimates are to be believed, earnings growth is bottoming now and will return to a 10% growth rate in 2024. Looking at it another way, we see the progression of calendar year estimates. You can see that the 2023 estimate has flattened out in recent weeks."

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@timmerfidelity

27. Growth divergence. "If S&P 500 Growth ($IVW) and S&P 500 Pure Growth ($RPG) is diverging, the market is looking for more than just growth ... profitability? stability? "

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@michaelkantro

28. SPX vs. defensives. "New 52-week lows across the board for the most defensive stocks relative to the market: Utilities, Healthcare, Consumer Staples, Low Volatility all new relative lows today."

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@allstarcharts

29. SPX breadth bias. "S&P 500 is still moving sideways. So long as net new highs are below the zero line, the breadth bias is lower."

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@himountresearch
See:
Hi Mount Research

30. Tech vs. the field. And finally, “the only other times when the tech sector surged over 4% while overall stocks declined were at the onset and in the middle of the Tech Bust.”

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@tavicosta

Have a great weekend!

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