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Daily Chartbook #204

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Daily Chartbook #204

Catch up on the day in 30 charts

Daily Chartbook
May 25, 2023
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Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: the day’s best charts & insights, curated.

Note: There are too many good charts on any given day for one newsletter. For additional charts and insights, check out DC on Twitter, Instagram, LinkedIn, and Substack Notes.


1. Mortgage demand. "The contract rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage increased 12 basis points to 6.69% [a 2-month high]...The index of applications for home purchases fell 4.3% in the week ended May 19 to the lowest level since early March."

Mortgage Rate Highest Since Early March | Recent pickup pushes down measure of home purchase applications
Bloomberg

2. Supply chain metrics. "Our aggregate of most-watched supply chain metrics continues to maintain below-average levels with Consumer inflation expectations being the only real outlier. Manheim’s Index of Used Vehicles declined 7% YOY."

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@dataarbor

3. Shipping rates. "Quite a remarkable move for shipping rates from Shanghai to Los Angeles … from March 2020 low to September 2021 peak, rates shot up by 836% … since then, they’ve fallen by -85%."

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@lizannsonders

4. UK inflation. "Headline inflation fell from 10.1% to 8.7% but core rose from 6.2% to 6.8%. Both April readings are above the consensus forecasts."

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FT via @elerianm

5. G4 PMI. "Economic growth across the four largest developed economies has accelerated to the fastest for 13 months in May...Growth was driven entirely by services, however, as manufacturers continued to report broadly stalled production."

Chris Williamson

6. National Financial Conditions. The index "ticked down to –0.31 in the week ending May 19, suggesting financial conditions loosened again."

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@chicagofed

7. Bank lending. "There are two downside risks to the outlook for the economy and markets. The first is rates higher for longer because of sticky inflation driven by high wage inflation and the ongoing recovery in the housing market . The second is the ongoing tightening in credit conditions with banks holding back lending."

Torsten Sløk

8. Recession probability. "We still do not expect a recession in the US this year."

When will consensus concur?
Goldman Sachs via TME

9. Real spending. "We expect that real spending will grow by 2% in 2023".

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Goldman Sachs via @mikezaccardi

10. Excess savings. "Household balance sheets remain strong, but households continue to rapidly draw down excess savings."

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Goldman Sachs via @mikezaccardi


11. T-bills vs. debt ceiling. "The T-bill market response has been faster and more severe than in previous debt ceiling episodes."

Goldman Sachs via The Daily Shot

12. Assets vs. 2011 debt ceiling. "This is how different assets performed into the debt ceiling drama of 2011."

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@macroalf
See:
The Macro Compass

13. Oil demand forecast. "The IEA has been revising up its global oil demand growth forecast over the last six months."

Oil demand
IEA via TME

14. Oil positioning. "Oil positioning is back to early Covid levels."

Oil positioning
CFCT via TME

15. Strategic Petroleum Reserves. "For the 8th straight week, the Biden admin drew down from the SPR (1.6mm barrels)."

Zero Hedge

16. US petroluem inventories. "US commercial crude stocks fell by 12.5 MMbbl last week—LARGEST IN SIX MONTHS—with smaller draws also in gasoline (-2.1) & distillates (-0.6). Total petroleum down 10.8 MMbbl, largest since product-driven draws in March."

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@rory_johnston

17. Copper slides. "Copper fell below $8,000 a ton for the first time in six months as investors cool on the prospects for a robust economic recovery in China this year."

Copper Extends Retreat to Trade Under $8,000 a Ton | Metal under pressure from tepid rebound of China's economy
Bloomberg

18. M2 plunge. "The US Money Supply has fallen 4.6% over the last 12 months, the largest year-over-year decline on record (note: M2 data goes back to 1959)."

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@charliebilello

19. USD vs. breadth. "Dollar resiliency has been detrimental to global stock market strength."

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@willidelwiche

20. Equity volatility. "We remain of the view that equity vol has become irrationally complacent relative to today's macro risks and has material potential to spike higher."

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BofA via @menthorqpro

21. Stocks vs. bonds. "When stocks are outperforming bonds, that should mean that investors have plenty of risk appetite. Amazingly, stocks reached a post-pandemic high by this measure on Monday."

John Authers

22. Twitter Financial Sentiment Index. Here's a look at the Fed’s new Fintwit index.

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Fed via @c_barraud

23. US stock ownership. 61% of US adults "have money invested in the stock market, the highest percentage Gallup has measured since 2008. Stock ownership fell during the Great Recession and stayed depressed for more than a decade, including lows of 52% in 2013 and 2016."

Gallup

24. Flows vs. returns. "Fund flows have not been supportive of recent market gains, but that is due to the concentration of flows into a narrow group of mega-cap."

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Goldman Sachs via @lanceroberts, The Daily Shot

25. ARK flows. "Large-cap Growth has been dominant, but based on flows, investor interest yet to translate back to the ARK suite of ETFs. Wonder if this will change."

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@todd_sohn via @allstarcharts

26. Aggressive CTA positioning. “SPX + NDX and Blue = RUT (where trend-followers are the most short on record), even a modest shift in market positioning could spark a plunge in tech and surge in small caps.”

Dare small caps?
Goldman Sachs via Zero Hedge

27. Puts vs. calls. "Equity put/call ratio sub .60 [yesterday] for 3rd straight day  (last time: early Feb)."

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@hmeisler

28. Buybacks. "Companies in the Russell 3000 have unveiled plans to buy back more than $600 billion in shares this year, in line with last year’s record pace."

WSJ

29. Energy FCF. "S&P 500 Energy sector's free cash flow yield continues to soar to multi-decade high."

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@lizannsonders

30. EPS growth: Nasdaq vs S&P. And finally, “we are told that the NASDAQ is populated by all of these fast-growing companies whose earnings jump by leaps and bounds with each passing year. Here is the cold reality.”

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@jeffweniger

Thanks for reading!

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1 Comment
author
Daily Chartbook
May 25Author

#10 contained the wrong chart. Now corrected.

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