Daily Chartbook #200
Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: the day’s best charts & insights, curated.
1. Existing home sales. "US existing home sales have continued to trend lower with March down and now April dropping 3.4% MoM (worse than the 3.2% drop expected)...Existing home sales are down 14 of the 15 months, leaving them down just over 23% YoY."
2. Median sales price. "The median price of an existing home sold in the US was down 1.7% over the last year, the largest YoY decline since 2012."
3. Global GDP growth. "Per IMF's April forecasts, among world's largest advanced economies (except for UK), there will be growth in 2023 and 2024 (albeit sluggish) ... China and India lead developing economies while rest of BRICS lag."
4. CRE debt. "The stock of CRE debt outstanding today is significantly smaller than the stock of residential mortgage debt outstanding in 2007...As a result, this recession will be milder than in 2008, but it will likely be longer because the required correction in CRE prices will be spread out over a longer period."
5. Used vehicles. "The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index dropped to 225.9, -2.1% from April, which was down 7.0% from the full month of May 2022."
6. Jobless claims (I). "Claims fell back to their previous average range, at 242,000. The 4 week average declined -1,000 to 244,250, while continuing claims from the previous week declined -8,000 to 1.799 million."
7. Jobless claims (II). "Initial Claims change by state: all Mass 'fraud' claims reversal."
8. Philly Fed manufacturing. "May [Philadelphia Fed] Index up to -10.4 vs. -20 est. & -31.3 prior; new orders improved from -22.7 to -8.9; prices inched higher along with delivery times; shipments still contracting but moved a touch higher … employment moved lower into contraction."
9. Leading Economic Indicator. The LEI fell by 0.6% in April for its 13th consecutive monthly decline and is now down 8% YoY.
10. M2 vs. inflation. "The money supply is now shrinking, albeit from an extremely elevated level. The chart below shows that the money supply (in real terms) has returned to its long-term trendline, after rising well above it in 2020. You can see the similarity to the 1940s."
11. Global fund managers vs. commodities. "FMS investors have become less optimistic on commodities lately."
12. SPX vs. US10Y. "Rolling 120-day correlation between S&P 500 (blue) and 10y U.S. Treasury yield (orange) has jumped back into positive territory for now."
13. AAII sentiment. "A 7-week low for bullish sentiment, unusually low for the 48th time in 72 weeks. Pessimism is back within its typical historical range."
14. Active manager exposure. "NAAIM Exposure 59, down a smidge."
15. Sector sentiment. "Here is a look at fund managers’ sector sentiment."
16. Sector fund flows. "Financials and REITs have been seeing persistent outflows."
17. Sector short interest. "Short interest in financials stocks, as well as the real estate space, ticked up over the last two months amid continued upheaval in the banking sector."
18. HF short positioning. "Our PB Positioning data would suggest that clients are positioned the most short in a decade and positioning towards cyclicals has declined materially."
19. HF vs. defensives. "Defensives as % of overall Long exposure."
20. HF vs. cyclicals. "Cyclicals as % of overall Short exposure."
21. HF vs. momentum. "The US Momentum factor has continued to rally in the past month. Alongside the rebound, HF net flows have recently picked up sharply with 10d net buying of Momentum nearing a +3z lev."
22. HF favorites vs retail favorites. "Performance for hedge funds' favorite stocks (blue) and retail traders' favorites (orange) has tracked closely this year, with both cohorts up ~13% YTD ... very different from 2021, which saw huge gap."
23. Duration vs. performance. "Up until October markets were trading rising inflation...and investors were shunning high-duration growth sectors…but this year we have seen a stark reversal in the performance of different equity sectors."
24. Tech vs. SPX. "S&P 500 Tech sector has regained strength relative to broader index, taking ratio back to a high ... in fact, it's now higher than where it was at December 2021 peak and March 2000 peak."
25. Lumber vs. homebuilders. "Lumber is generally a leading indicator to the housing market, yet homebuilding stocks have moved in the opposite direction for the last six months."
26. Small cap call volume. "The chase for small caps is on, in options markets as well. Call activity in the underdog is on fire."
27. EM value (I). Emerging markets are trading at a discount not seen since the late 1990s.
28. EM value (II). "The biggest emerging markets continue to be dominated by retail investors, something that long ago ceased to be the case in the US or other developed markets. That should make them less efficient, which could create opportunities."
29. Margin debt. And finally, “margin debt as a percent of S&P 500 market cap is really really low.”
Thanks for reading!