Daily Chartbook #20
Welcome back to PAV Chartbook: market charts, data, research, and insights pulled from various sources around the Internet by a solo retail investor.
1. EIA update. The US Energy Information Administration has upped its oil demand forecast.
2. Clean energy vs. fossil fuels. “Although fundraising in both areas has slowed during this year’s market volatility, the ratio of green-to-fossil-fuel financing has stayed roughly similar.”
3. Clear energy stocks roundtrip. The WilderHill Clean Energy Index is right around where it was when President Biden took office.
4. Homebuilders. Homebuilder confidence falls for the 8th consecutive month in “worst slump since 2007 crash”.
5. Lowering prices. “1 in 5 builders are lowering prices to increase sales in the last month”.
6. High-frequency indicators for the economy (I). The next 4 charts are courtesy of Bill McBride at Calculated Risk. First up, TSA checkpoints.
7. High-frequency indicators for the economy (II). Movie ticket sales.
8. High-frequency indicators for the economy (III). Hotel occupancy.
9. High-frequency indicators for the economy (IV). Gasoline supplied.
10. China surprise. China’s central bank unexpectedly lowered interest rates by 10 bps as growth slows. All 20 Bloomberg economists polled were predicting the rate to remain unchanged.
11. China confidence. China’s consumer confidence has plummeted to record lows.
12. China’s effect on US prices. Declining producer prices should eventually be reflected in US consumer prices.
13. Goldman: no recession. The Wall Street giant is forecasting 1.1% and 1.8% US GDP growth for 2023 and 2024, respectively.
14. Debt breakdown by age. “For those younger than age 30, student loans (yellow) account for 31% of debt; by age 40, mortgage debt tends to jump comfortably above the 2/3 threshold”.
15. NY Manufacturing (I). The New York Empire State Manufacturing Index experienced its second-largest decline ever sharply and is at its lowest since May 2020.
16. NY Manufacturing (II). Current indicators.
17. NY Manufacturing (III). Current indicators, continued.
18. NY Manufacturing (IV). Forward (6 months ahead) indicators.
19. NY Manufacturing (V). Forward (6 months ahead) indicators, continued.
20. US manufacturing. A look at all regional manufacturing gauges.
21. Goods/services split. Breakdown of how goods and services impact the US economy and S&P 500 earnings.
22. Sector sales. Q2 sales growth by sector.
23. What is retail buying? Here are the most purchased stocks by individual investors in August.
24. Shorts (I). This chart is from Friday. Bears are giving up? “We saw the largest day of covering in one month and the largest day of net buying in one month only two days apart (Monday and Wednesday)”. - MS
25. Shorts (II). “The short squeezes in 2021 and 2014 were enormous, but the current squeeze in 2022 stacks up as #3, winning the bronze metal for one of the largest squeezes in modern market history. Past isn't prologue, but the short squeeze in 2021 certainly did not end well for many.”
26. Positioning. Positioning has moved up off "extremely light" levels but remains lowish.
27. S&P pricing power. “After hitting a record high in Q2 2021 of 13.5%, S&P 500 profit margins have moved down to 10.9% in Q2 2022 as sales growth has slowed and companies are having a more difficult time passing on rising costs to their customers”.
28. Retail options. Retail traders are stepping up their bullish call options bets. “Retail options activity is at the highest level since April, according to UBS”.
29. Earnings outlook. Revisions have not been optimistic.
30. S&P is overbought. Stocks haven’t been this overbought in over 2 years.
31. Sentiment. Here is a breakdown of Goldman Sach’s sentiment indicators.
32. Michael Burry. And finally, The Big Short investor dumped all of his holdings, save for 1 small position in private jail operator GEO Group GEO 0.00