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Daily Chartbook #20

www.dailychartbook.com

Daily Chartbook #20

32 charts

Daily Chartbook
Aug 16, 2022
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Daily Chartbook #20

www.dailychartbook.com

Welcome back to PAV Chartbook: market charts, data, research, and insights pulled from various sources around the Internet by a solo retail investor.


1. EIA update. The US Energy Information Administration has upped its oil demand forecast.

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@mikeziccardi

2. Clean energy vs. fossil fuels. “Although fundraising in both areas has slowed during this year’s market volatility, the ratio of green-to-fossil-fuel financing has stayed roughly similar.”

WSJ

3. Clear energy stocks roundtrip. The WilderHill Clean Energy Index is right around where it was when President Biden took office.

Bloomberg Elements newsletter

4. Homebuilders. Homebuilder confidence falls for the 8th consecutive month in “worst slump since 2007 crash”.

Zero Hedge

5. Lowering prices. “1 in 5 builders are lowering prices to increase sales in the last month”.

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@menthorqpro

6. High-frequency indicators for the economy (I). The next 4 charts are courtesy of Bill McBride at Calculated Risk. First up, TSA checkpoints.

Calculated Risk

7. High-frequency indicators for the economy (II). Movie ticket sales.

Calculated Risk

8. High-frequency indicators for the economy (III). Hotel occupancy.

Calculated Risk

9. High-frequency indicators for the economy (IV). Gasoline supplied.


10. China surprise. China’s central bank unexpectedly lowered interest rates by 10 bps as growth slows. All 20 Bloomberg economists polled were predicting the rate to remain unchanged.

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@dimartinobooth


11. China confidence. China’s consumer confidence has plummeted to record lows.

TS Lombard via TME

12. China’s effect on US prices. Declining producer prices should eventually be reflected in US consumer prices.

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@jeffweniger

13. Goldman: no recession. The Wall Street giant is forecasting 1.1% and 1.8% US GDP growth for 2023 and 2024, respectively.

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@lanceroberts

14. Debt breakdown by age. “For those younger than age 30, student loans (yellow) account for 31% of debt; by age 40, mortgage debt tends to jump comfortably above the 2/3 threshold”.

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@lizannsonders

15. NY Manufacturing (I). The New York Empire State Manufacturing Index experienced its second-largest decline ever sharply and is at its lowest since May 2020.

Bloomberg

16. NY Manufacturing (II). Current indicators.

NY Fed

17. NY Manufacturing (III). Current indicators, continued.

NY Fed

18. NY Manufacturing (IV). Forward (6 months ahead) indicators.

NY Fed

19. NY Manufacturing (V). Forward (6 months ahead) indicators, continued.

NY Fed

20. US manufacturing. A look at all regional manufacturing gauges.

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@m_mcdonough

21. Goods/services split. Breakdown of how goods and services impact the US economy and S&P 500 earnings.

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@samro

22. Sector sales. Q2 sales growth by sector.

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@samro

23. What is retail buying? Here are the most purchased stocks by individual investors in August.

WSJ

24. Shorts (I). This chart is from Friday. Bears are giving up? “We saw the largest day of covering in one month and the largest day of net buying in one month only two days apart (Monday and Wednesday)”. - MS

GS via TME

25. Shorts (II). “The short squeezes in 2021 and 2014 were enormous, but the current squeeze in 2022 stacks up as #3, winning the bronze metal for one of the largest squeezes in modern market history. Past isn't prologue, but the short squeeze in 2021 certainly did not end well for many.”

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@mayhem4markets

26. Positioning. Positioning has moved up off "extremely light" levels but remains lowish.

DB via TME

27. S&P pricing power. “After hitting a record high in Q2 2021 of 13.5%, S&P 500 profit margins have moved down to 10.9% in Q2 2022 as sales growth has slowed and companies are having a more difficult time passing on rising costs to their customers”.

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@charliebilello

28. Retail options. Retail traders are stepping up their bullish call options bets. “Retail options activity is at the highest level since April, according to UBS”.

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UBS via @gunjanjs

29. Earnings outlook. Revisions have not been optimistic.

MS via TME

30. S&P is overbought. Stocks haven’t been this overbought in over 2 years.

Bloomberg

31. Sentiment. Here is a breakdown of Goldman Sach’s sentiment indicators.

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@wallstjesus

32. Michael Burry. And finally, The Big Short investor dumped all of his holdings, save for 1 small position in private jail operator GEO Group GEO 0.00

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@cramertracker
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Daily Chartbook #20

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