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Daily Chartbook #199

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Daily Chartbook #199

Catch up on the day in 29 charts

Daily Chartbook
May 18, 2023
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Daily Chartbook #199

www.dailychartbook.com
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Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: the day’s best charts & insights, curated.


1. US petroleum inventories. "Total US commercial petroleum inventories rose by 7.6 MMbbl last week, driven by a 5 MMbbl increase in crude stocks."

Image
@rory_johnston
See:
Commodity Context

2. Strategic Petroleum Reserves. "While the Biden admin proclaimed their intent to buy 3mm barrels to start refilling the SPR this week, they drained another 2.4mm barrels - the 7th straight weekly drain (draining 11.993mm barrels)."

Zero Hedge

3. US housing (I). "Housing starts [jumped] 2.2% MoM (-1.4% MoM exp but March's data was revised down massively from -0.8% to -4.5%) and permits fell 1.5% MoM (vs unch exp) but also a major revision (upward from -8.8% to -3.0%)."

Zero Hedge

4. US housing (II). "This leaves the total levels for starts and permits back at pre-COVID levels (despite rates being massively higher)."

Zero Hedge

5. US housing (III). "Combined, there are 1.675 million units under construction, just 35 thousand below the all-time record of 1.710 million set in October 2022."

Calculated Risk
See:
CalculatedRisk Newsletter

6. Travel spending. "Travel spending has moderated in recent months to - 1.5% MoM in April."

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BofA via @mikezaccardi

7. TSA checkpoint."TSA checkpoint numbers are returning to pre-pandemic growth."

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BofA via @mikezaccardi

8. Credit standards. "A survey of 67 banks in the Dallas Fed district carried out in early May shows that credit standards have tightened significantly since SVB collapsed, and bank credit conditions are now at 2020 levels, and the deterioration continues."

Credit standards at 2020 levels and deterioration continues
Torsten Sløk

9. Creditworthiness. "US default risk perceptions so high that FAANG have lower CDS (credit default swaps) spreads."

FAANG default risk (CDS) less US govt = more reason to OW (even now). Regional banks see DeMark 13 buy setup = stick along with OW temporary Fed put
@fs_insight

10. National Financial Conditions. The NFCI "ticked down to –0.30 in the week ending May 12, suggesting financial conditions continued to loosen."

Image
@chicagofed


11. Business conditions. "While we're looking for worsening macro, the Business Conditions Composite Index (orange line) stabilized since March trough and has inflected higher. Since GFC, the BCI has never inflected higher w/o continued improvement above 50."

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Morgan Stanley via @sethCL

12. Recession punt. "The consensus forecast for at least a year running has been that we're three months away from a recession, and it just keeps getting pushed back and pushed back and pushed back."

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Bloomberg via @boes_

13. Q2 GDP. "The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2023 is 2.9 percent on May 17, up from 2.6 percent on May 16."

Atlanta Fed

14. Copper contango. "Copper stays in contango, a bearish form of the term structure. When in contango, traders hold inventory and go short the futures to hedge in order to earn the carry in tue forward curve. This is another sign that market stays weak."

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@menthorqpro

15. Global breadth vs. USD. "Dollar barely off its lows and % of global markets above their 50-day avg has dropped to its lowest level of Q2. Looks like US struggles are weighing on the world."

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@williedelwiche
See:
Hi Mount Research

16. MOVE vs. VIX. "Bond volatility (MOVE Index, blue) has eased from peak but has stayed in an elevated range, especially when compared to equity volatility (VIX Index, orange), which continues to trend lower."

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@lizannsonders

17. Stocks vs. bonds. “The SPY-to-TLT ratio has only been as overbought (as measured by quarterly RSI) as it is today at the 2007 top heading into the GFC.”

The Felder Report

18. Sector downgrades. "Since beginning of 2022, downgrades from S&P and Moody's have been overwhelmingly concentrated in financial sector (particularly, banks at top of list) ... insurance firms have second and third most downgrades."

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Arbor Data via @lizannsonders

19. FMS investor positioning. Investors rotated out of commodities, utilities, and emerging markets, and into tech, Eurozone, and equities.

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BofA via @mayhem4markets
See:
MacroVisor

20. SPX shorts. "S&P 500 short positions have been at some of the highest levels of the past 12 years but the index is up on the year."

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Soc Gen via @gunjanjs

21. Regional shorts. "Short interest as a percentage of shares outstanding in the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (ticker KRE) rose to 92% from 74% a week ago."

relates to Short Sellers Up Regional Bank Bets Even as Lender Concerns Ease
S3 Partners via Bloomberg

22. Bull market checklist. "Our bull market signposts suggest the S&P 500 may not break out just yet: 50% are triggered vs. 80-90% ahead of prior S&P 500 market bottoms."

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BofA via @carlquintanilla

23. AI hype. "The AI boom and hype is strong. So strong that without the AI-popular stocks, S&P 500 would be down 2% this year. Not +8%."

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Soc Gen via @ayeshatariq

24. Post-hike returns. "US stocks tend to outperform global peers after the last Fed hike."

Simon White via The Daily Shot

25. Operating margin. "S&P 500’s forward 12m operating margin has started to roll over this month, but hasn’t yet cut below its recent April low."

Image
@lizannsonders

26. Margin growth. "Our macro model supports the view that margins should stabilize in coming quarters."

Margins: a macro bull story
Goldman Sachs via TME

27. Profit margins (I). "Profit margins declined by much less than feared in 1Q 2023."

Margins: a sequential 2nd derivative story
Goldman Sachs via TME

28. Profit margins (II). "S&P 500 margins are back at pre-COVID levels and rose sequentially in 1Q 2023."

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Goldman Sachs via @zerohedge

29. Profit margins (III). And finally, “profit margin expansion has accounted for 40% of the S&P 500 price gain since 1990.”

Margins matter
Goldman Sachs via TME

Thanks for reading!

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Daily Chartbook #199

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Daily Chartbook #199

www.dailychartbook.com
Nick E.
Writes Nick’s Vital Few
May 18Liked by Daily Chartbook

Love that "22. Bull market checklist." You are the only one that captures that. 👍🏽

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