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Daily Chartbook #190

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Daily Chartbook #190

Catch up on the day in 27 charts

Daily Chartbook
Apr 27, 2023
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Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: the day’s best charts & insights, curated.


1. US petroleum inventories. "Weekly US commercial petroleum inventory data showed another bullish draw across the big-3 but the headline draw was once again blunted by a sizable build in other products."

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@rory_johnston
See:
Commodity Context

2. Strategic Petroluem Reserves. "The Biden admin drew down from the SPR for the 4th straight week."

Zero Hedge

3. Balance of trade. "US merchandise trade deficit narrowed $7.4bn to $84.6bn in March 23. Goods exports +2.9%, good imports -1.0%."

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@gregdaco

4. Financial conditions. The NFCI "moved down to –0.30 in the week ending April 21, suggesting financial conditions loosened."

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@chicagofed

5. Recession indicators. "None of the indicators the NBER recession committee normally looks at suggest that we are in a recession at the moment."

Torsten Sløk

6. Gig economy. "The percentage of [BofA] customers who received income from gig platforms...slipped to around 2.7% in February 2023, from 3.3% in March 2022."

BofA

7. Inventories. "March wholesale inventories (blue) +0.1% m/m vs. +0.1% est. & +0.1% prior … retail inventories (orange) +0.7% vs. +0.2% est. & +0.3% prior (rev down from +0.8%)."

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@lizannsonders

8. Durable goods (I). Orders "soared 3.2% MoM rescuing the YoY from dropping negative for the first time since Aug 2020."

Zero Hedge

9. Durable goods (II). "Core orders (ex-Transports) rose 0.3% MoM (better than the 0.2% drop expected) highlighting that this headline surge was all Boeing - with a 78.4% MoM surge in non-defense aircraft and parts orders."

Zero Hedge

10. Q1 GDP. The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in Q1 is now 1.1%, down from 2.5% on April 18. The drop was driven by a downside revision to consumer spending.

Atlanta Fed


11. Bonds vs. Fed. "The bond market is pricing almost 200 bps worth of Fed cuts over the next 18 months. This is by far the biggest amount of cumulative Fed cuts the bond market ever priced in over the last 37 years."

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@macroalf
See:
The Macro Compass

12. TIPS vs. Fed. "Would the [Federal Reserve] cut rates later this year if market-based (TIPS) measures of future inflation remain over 2%? History says yes, but only if a recession were clearly on the way."

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@datatrekmb

13. 3M vs. 10Y. "There have only been two other periods in the last sixty years that the 3m/10y yield curve flattened by more over the course of a year than it has now (gray shading is recessions)."

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@bespokeinvest

14. Gold ETFs. "ETF flows aren’t confirming the gold rally yet."

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BofA via @mikezaccardi

15. Gold vs. oil. "The gold-to-oil ratio suggests commodities traders are hedging against the risk of a US recession."

Zero Hedge

16. Margin debt. "Typically, an increase in margin debt can be viewed as a bullish signal for the S&P 500."

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Topdown Charts via @isabelnet_sa
See:
Topdown Charts

17. Equity inflows. "Investors bought US stocks for the first time in a month last week" with hedge funds leading $2.3 billion in inflows over the period.

relates to Hedge Funds, Buybacks Drive $2.3 Billion Into Stocks, Bank of America Says
BofA via Bloomberg

18. Smart money. "Smart money confidence has been dropping like a stone."

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@gameoftrades_

19. Systematic positioning (I). Systematic positioning in global stocks is at its highest since early 2022 after $170 billion in equity buying over the past month…"Quant funds would be forced to unwind as much as $276 billion of shares should the market sell off in the next month."

relates to Quants Are ‘Out of Ammo’ for Buying Stocks, Goldman Warns
Goldman Sachs via Bloomberg

20. Systematic positioning (II). "Systematic [US] equity positioning is the longest it's been in over a year according to estimates by Goldman Sachs."

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Goldman Sachs via @mayhem4markets

21. ETF flows. "BofA private clients have been getting back into financials and dumping REITs."

BofA via Daily Shot

22. Sector short interest. "One-month changes in short interest by sector."

Deutsche Bank via Daily Shot

23. Buybacks. "US share buyback authorization announcements remain strong."

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Goldman Sachs via @isabelnet_sa

24. SPX concentration. "Just five stocks make up 21% of S&P 500 market capitalization."

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Goldman Sachs via @mayhem4markets

25. Earnings vs. revenues. "According to historical data, changes in EPS tend to precede changes in top-line growth by approximately one quarter. Recent reports indicate that corporate profits have fallen by 13%."

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@tavicosta

26. Nasdaq PE vs. real yield. "Nasdaq valuation has already priced in significant drop in real yields...real yields will only go down in a recession, which will impact E in PE."

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@equitorr via @michaelaarouet

27. NDX breadth. And finally, “Nasdaq breadth defined in this case by the advance/decline ratio, just hit a record low.”

Zero Hedge

Thanks for reading!

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2 Comments
Arvin Thapar
Writes Arvin’s Substack
Apr 27Liked by Daily Chartbook

Thank you

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W R
Apr 27

Good reading, thanks. I might recommend a few more ex-USA charts, for a global perspective.

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