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Daily Chartbook #19

www.dailychartbook.com

Daily Chartbook #19

32 charts

Daily Chartbook
Aug 13, 2022
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Daily Chartbook #19

www.dailychartbook.com

Welcome back to PAV Chartbook: market charts, data, research, and insights pulled from various sources around the Internet by a solo retail investor.


1. EIA & OPEC. We’ve mentioned both the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) forecast. Here they are side by side. “OPEC's outlook is much tighter for both this year and especially next year”.

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@rory_johnston

2. Gas prices. Goldman Sachs is forecasting a continued drop in gas prices, followed by a rally into the end of the year before coming back down in 2023.

GS via TME

3. Global freight rates. Global container shipping rates declined for the 24th consecutive week.

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@ole_s_hansen

4. Room for improvement. However, there are still too many stationary ships worldwide.

Commerzbank Research via Daily Shot

5. Stubborn freight. Something possibly overlooked in yesterday’s positive PPI report was a “lack of uniform decline in freight costs”.

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@lizannsonders

6. Wage growth. With businesses’ hiring plans declining, when will wage growth roll over?

Economics and Strategy Group, National Bank of Canada  via Daily Shot

7. Job switchers. Switching jobs is paying off more than ever.

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@lizannsonders

8. Strong retail spending. From BofA: “We look for a solid 0.9% rise in core retail sales for July, suggesting household spending is off to a strong start in Q3.”

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@mikeziccardi

9. Restaurant spending. Spending on restaurants is picking up.

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@mikeziccardi

10. Fed funds rate. “Fed funds are expected to rise to ~3.5% toward the end of this year, and then begin to see cuts as early as the second half of 2023.”

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Atlanda Fed via @mayhem4markets


11. Inflation forecast (I). Capital Economics.

Capital Economics via Daily Shot

12. Inflation forecast (II). ING.

ING via Daily Shot

13. Inflation forecast (III). Deutsche Bank.

Deutsche Bank via Daily Shot

14. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (I). Consumer sentiment moved up to its highest level in 3 months but remains historically low.

Zero Hedge

15. UMich (II). The consumer sentiment survey’s 5 primary questions.

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@m_mcdonough

16. UMich (III). Contributions from current conditions.

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@m_mcdonough

17. UMich (IV). Breakdown of buying conditions.

Zero Hedge

18. UMich (V). Contributions from expectations.

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@m_mcdonough

19. UMich (VI). Here are 5-year inflation expectations based on demographics.

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@m_mcdonough

20. UMich (VII). Republicans expect higher inflation than Democrats, though expectations overall are declining.

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@m_mcdonough

21. UMich (VIII). Republican consumer sentiment is also predictably lower. Note the flip depending on which party controls the White House.

Zero Hedge

22. UMich (IX). Further breakdown of the political effect.

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@m_mcdonough

23. Intangible assets. Tangible assets made up 83% of the S&P 500’s market value in 1975. In 2020 that number was down to 10%.

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@macroalf

24. High & stable margins. “Stocks with high and stable margins are still seeing upgrades, in contrast to Cyclicals.”

GS via TME

25. Tech stocks (I). Technology stocks have seen the biggest inflows in 8 weeks.

BofA via TME

26. Tech stocks (II). They’re also on pace for the longest winning streak of weekly gains since November.

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@lisaabromowicz1

27. Risk-on? The market’s risky factors are gaining momentum.

JPM via TME

28. Insiders accumulating. Corporate insiders have been accumulating over the past month.

@sentimentrader

29. Fed odds. The market is placing a 57.5% chance on a 50bps interest rate hike in September vs. a 42.5% chance on 75bps.

CME

30. Economic data ahead. Here’s what to look out for next week.

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@mikeziccardi

31. Zoom out. Looking out a little further.

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@mikeziccardi

32. Earnings. And finally, earnings season isn’t over yet—here are next week’s most notable.

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@mikeziccardi
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Daily Chartbook #19

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