Daily Chartbook #19
Welcome back to PAV Chartbook: market charts, data, research, and insights pulled from various sources around the Internet by a solo retail investor.
1. EIA & OPEC. We’ve mentioned both the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) forecast. Here they are side by side. “OPEC's outlook is much tighter for both this year and especially next year”.
2. Gas prices. Goldman Sachs is forecasting a continued drop in gas prices, followed by a rally into the end of the year before coming back down in 2023.
3. Global freight rates. Global container shipping rates declined for the 24th consecutive week.
4. Room for improvement. However, there are still too many stationary ships worldwide.
5. Stubborn freight. Something possibly overlooked in yesterday’s positive PPI report was a “lack of uniform decline in freight costs”.
6. Wage growth. With businesses’ hiring plans declining, when will wage growth roll over?
7. Job switchers. Switching jobs is paying off more than ever.
8. Strong retail spending. From BofA: “We look for a solid 0.9% rise in core retail sales for July, suggesting household spending is off to a strong start in Q3.”
9. Restaurant spending. Spending on restaurants is picking up.
10. Fed funds rate. “Fed funds are expected to rise to ~3.5% toward the end of this year, and then begin to see cuts as early as the second half of 2023.”
11. Inflation forecast (I). Capital Economics.
12. Inflation forecast (II). ING.
13. Inflation forecast (III). Deutsche Bank.
14. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (I). Consumer sentiment moved up to its highest level in 3 months but remains historically low.
15. UMich (II). The consumer sentiment survey’s 5 primary questions.
16. UMich (III). Contributions from current conditions.
17. UMich (IV). Breakdown of buying conditions.
18. UMich (V). Contributions from expectations.
19. UMich (VI). Here are 5-year inflation expectations based on demographics.
20. UMich (VII). Republicans expect higher inflation than Democrats, though expectations overall are declining.
21. UMich (VIII). Republican consumer sentiment is also predictably lower. Note the flip depending on which party controls the White House.
22. UMich (IX). Further breakdown of the political effect.
23. Intangible assets. Tangible assets made up 83% of the S&P 500’s market value in 1975. In 2020 that number was down to 10%.
24. High & stable margins. “Stocks with high and stable margins are still seeing upgrades, in contrast to Cyclicals.”
25. Tech stocks (I). Technology stocks have seen the biggest inflows in 8 weeks.
26. Tech stocks (II). They’re also on pace for the longest winning streak of weekly gains since November.
27. Risk-on? The market’s risky factors are gaining momentum.
28. Insiders accumulating. Corporate insiders have been accumulating over the past month.
29. Fed odds. The market is placing a 57.5% chance on a 50bps interest rate hike in September vs. a 42.5% chance on 75bps.
30. Economic data ahead. Here’s what to look out for next week.
31. Zoom out. Looking out a little further.
32. Earnings. And finally, earnings season isn’t over yet—here are next week’s most notable.