Daily Chartbook #189

Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: the day’s best charts & insights, curated.

1. Home prices (I). "S&P CoreLogic (Case-Shiller) home price index unexpectedly rose (0.06% MoM) in February (the latest data released today), which slowed the annual 20-City Composite price index growth to just 0.36% YoY...that is the slowest YoY growth since May 2012."

2. Home prices (II). "February [FHFA] House Price Index +0.5% m/m vs. -0.1% est. & +0.1% in prior month … second consecutive monthly gain and strongest jump since May 2022."

3. New home sales. "March new home sales +9.6% vs. -1.3% est. & -3.9% prior (rev down from +1.1%) … strongest month since August 2022; in level terms (blue), sales now up by 26% from recent trough."

4. Container imports. In the US, "container imports in the first three months of 2023 slid about 23% from the same period last year."

5. Philly Fed services. The index dropped "from -12.8 to -22.8 - the weakest since the COVID lockdowns collapse and negative for 8 of the last 9 months."

6. Dallas Fed services. The "survey printed in contraction for the 11th straight month."

7. Richmond Fed manufacturing. "The composite manufacturing index fell from -5 in March to -10 in April (worse than the -8 exp). Two of its three component indexes - shipments and new orders - declined."

8. Recession odds. "Recession probability model from [New York Fed] continues to move up and is now at highest since 1982."

9. Consumer Confidence. The index "slipped lower (lowest since June) as expectations sank back near 9 year lows while current conditions were modestly higher."

10. Card spending. "A slowdown in consumption in March appears to have unwound in April...For the week ending April 18, card spending advanced 15.5% with the four-week moving average running 9.4%."

11. M2 levels (I). "The US Money Supply has fallen 4% over the last 12 months, the largest year-over-year decline on record (note: M2 data goes back to 1959)."

12. M2 levels (II). "US money supply is contracting but remains elevated in real terms and as a percentage of GDP."

13. Unrealized losses. "With bank earnings out, here are the latest Big 4 HTM Unrealized Losses. BofA still #1 with $100BN."

14. Credit default swaps. "Protection against a US government default in the next 6 months is now 3x more expensive than safeguarding against a default over the next 5 years."

15. Volatility. "Implied volatility and realized volatility are at their lowest levels in well over a year. Now that we're post-OpEx I expect that may change, particularly as we go headlong in to earnings season with the Fed coming up next week as well."

16. Equity volatility vs. recession. "Equity volatility is on the cheaper side if we are to enter a recession."

17. Bond flows. "BofA private clients continue to buy bonds."

18. Bond shorts. "Short interest in ultra T-bonds and 2-year notes is quite elevated."

19. Risk appetite. Goldman's risk appetite indicator is in neutral territory.

20. Hedge fund vs. stocks. Hedge fund flows to US equities are trending long.

21. Short interest. Short interest on SPX has moved up but remains relatively low.

22. Cross-asset futures positioning. "Traders are really long VIX futures, short S&P 500 futures and the 2-year, 10-year."

23. Regional banks. "As US regional banks report, most conclude the worst of the banking crisis is behind us.  But yet, this sentiment has failed to lift the KBW regional bank index."

24. Dividend changes. "Sixty-seven members of the S&P 500 will increase their regular dividends at their next announcements, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence forecasts."

25. SPX scenarios. "In a soft landing scenario, Goldman Sachs forecast for S&P 500 EPS is $224 in 2023, and its S&P 500 price target is 4,000 by the end of 2023."

26. SPX targets. "JP Morgan survey shows that most respondents expect the S&P 500 to be at 3500 by year end."

27. Forward earnings. "Post-October low, the Consumer Staples is the only S&P sector to see a rise in forward earnings (+.5%). All other Sector estimates down over past six months."

28. Earnings vs. sales growth. "The gap between earnings and sales growth becomes very negative during recessions. As seen on the right end of the chart, the gap has now turned negative again."

See:

29. Earnings growth. And finally, “the current consensus estimate trajectory is following the typical recovery scenario.  Whether those estimates can be believed is another matter.  Indeed, the recovery trajectory later this year looks laughably linear.”

Thanks for reading!