Daily Chartbook

Share this post

Daily Chartbook #189

www.dailychartbook.com

Daily Chartbook #189

Catch up on the day in 29 charts

Daily Chartbook
Apr 26, 2023
44
3
Share

Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: the day’s best charts & insights, curated.


1. Home prices (I). "S&P CoreLogic (Case-Shiller) home price index unexpectedly rose (0.06% MoM) in February (the latest data released today), which slowed the annual 20-City Composite price index growth to just 0.36% YoY...that is the slowest YoY growth since May 2012."

Zero Hedge

2. Home prices (II). "February [FHFA] House Price Index +0.5% m/m vs. -0.1% est. & +0.1% in prior month … second consecutive monthly gain and strongest jump since May 2022."

Image
@lizannsonders

3. New home sales. "March new home sales +9.6% vs. -1.3% est. & -3.9% prior (rev down from +1.1%) … strongest month since August 2022; in level terms (blue), sales now up by 26% from recent trough."

Image
@lizannsonders

4. Container imports. In the US, "container imports in the first three months of 2023 slid about 23% from the same period last year."

WSJ

5. Philly Fed services. The index dropped "from -12.8 to -22.8 - the weakest since the COVID lockdowns collapse and negative for 8 of the last 9 months."

Zero Hedge

6. Dallas Fed services. The "survey printed in contraction for the 11th straight month."

Zero Hedge

7. Richmond Fed manufacturing. "The composite manufacturing index fell from -5 in March to -10 in April (worse than the -8 exp). Two of its three component indexes - shipments and new orders - declined."

Zero Hedge

8. Recession odds. "Recession probability model from [New York Fed] continues to move up and is now at highest since 1982."

Image
@lizannsonders

9. Consumer Confidence. The index "slipped lower (lowest since June) as expectations sank back near 9 year lows while current conditions were modestly higher."

Conference Board via Zero Hedge

10. Card spending. "A slowdown in consumption in March appears to have unwound in April...For the week ending April 18, card spending advanced 15.5% with the four-week moving average running 9.4%."

Image
BEA via @renmacllc


11. M2 levels (I). "The US Money Supply has fallen 4% over the last 12 months, the largest year-over-year decline on record (note: M2 data goes back to 1959)."

Image
@charliebilello

12. M2 levels (II). "US money supply is contracting but remains elevated in real terms and as a percentage of GDP."

Image
MRB Partners via @thedailyshot

13. Unrealized losses. "With bank earnings out, here are the latest Big 4 HTM Unrealized Losses. BofA still #1 with $100BN."

Image
@zerohedge

14. Credit default swaps. "Protection against a US government default in the next 6 months is now 3x more expensive than safeguarding against a default over the next 5 years."

Image
@m_mcdonough

15. Volatility. "Implied volatility and realized volatility are at their lowest levels in well over a year. Now that we're post-OpEx I expect that may change, particularly as we go headlong in to earnings season with the Fed coming up next week as well."

Image
Deutsche Bank via @mayhem4markets

16. Equity volatility vs. recession. "Equity volatility is on the cheaper side if we are to enter a recession."

Volatility and recession
JPMorgan via TME

17. Bond flows. "BofA private clients continue to buy bonds."

BofA via Daily Shot

18. Bond shorts. "Short interest in ultra T-bonds and 2-year notes is quite elevated."

That Treasury short
Deutsche Bank via TME

19. Risk appetite. Goldman's risk appetite indicator is in neutral territory.

Image
Goldman Sachs via @isabelnet_sa

20. Hedge fund vs. stocks. Hedge fund flows to US equities are trending long.

Image
Goldman Sachs via @mayhem4markets

21. Short interest. Short interest on SPX has moved up but remains relatively low.

The pick up in short interest
Goldman Sachs via TME

22. Cross-asset futures positioning. "Traders are really long VIX futures, short S&P 500 futures and the 2-year, 10-year."

Image
Deutsche Bank via @gunjanjs

23. Regional banks. "As US regional banks report, most conclude the worst of the banking crisis is behind us.  But yet, this sentiment has failed to lift the KBW regional bank index."

Image
@valerietytel

24. Dividend changes. "Sixty-seven members of the S&P 500 will increase their regular dividends at their next announcements, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence forecasts."

SNL Image
S&P Global

25. SPX scenarios. "In a soft landing scenario, Goldman Sachs forecast for S&P 500 EPS is $224 in 2023, and its S&P 500 price target is 4,000 by the end of 2023."

Image
Goldman Sachs via @isabelnet_sa

26. SPX targets. "JP Morgan survey shows that most respondents expect the S&P 500 to be at 3500 by year end."

Image
JPMorgan via @mayhem4markets

27. Forward earnings. "Post-October low, the Consumer Staples is the only S&P sector to see a rise in forward earnings (+.5%). All other Sector estimates down over past six months."

Image
@warrenpies

28. Earnings vs. sales growth. "The gap between earnings and sales growth becomes very negative during recessions. As seen on the right end of the chart, the gap has now turned negative again."

True Insights
See:
True Insights Investment Research (Substack Edition)

29. Earnings growth. And finally, “the current consensus estimate trajectory is following the typical recovery scenario.  Whether those estimates can be believed is another matter.  Indeed, the recovery trajectory later this year looks laughably linear.”

Image
@timmerfidelity

Thanks for reading!

44
3
Share
3 Comments
Arvin Thapar
Writes Arvin’s Substack
Apr 26Liked by Daily Chartbook

Thank you. Really enjoying reading your charts every night.

Expand full comment
Reply
1 reply by Daily Chartbook
Joe Olashugba
Writes Market Macro Hub
Apr 26Liked by Daily Chartbook

Great charts and synopsis!

Expand full comment
Reply
1 more comment…
Top
New
Community

No posts

Ready for more?

© 2023 Daily Chartbook
Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Start WritingGet the app
Substack is the home for great writing