Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: the day’s best charts & insights, curated.
1. Bankruptcies. "Even before last month’s banking crisis, bankruptcies among private companies with at least $10 million in assets had jumped to an average of 7.8 each week by late February, a stark increase from the pandemic peak of 4.5 in June 2020."
2. Lending standards. "Bank lending standards are likely to further tighten from already tight levels."
3. Credit default swaps. "The cost of insuring U.S. debt for one year via CDS has soared to the **highest on record** as the debt-ceiling debate has heated up."
4. US credit. Goldman "is standing firm on its bullish outlook for US credit, saying companies can withstand tighter lending standards triggered by banking failures in March."
5. Labor shortages. "While corporate worries about labor shortages have declined, they are still well above pre-pandemic levels."
6. Unemployment benefits. "A year ago it was the lowest income workers filing by far the most jobless claims. Now we’re seeing a massive spike in claims for the wealthiest demo."
7. Q1 GDP. "Our 1Q GDP tracking estimate edged down a tenth to 1.5% q/q saar."
8. Flash PMIs (I). "The headline S&P Global Flash US PMI Composite Output Index registered 53.5 in April, up from 52.3 in March, to signal the quickest upturn in business activity since May 2022."
9. Flash PMIs (II). “US Manufacturing at 11-month high - prints 50.4 (expansion) in flash April vs 49.2 prior, well ahead of the drop to 49.0 expected...US Services at 6-month high - prints 53.7 (expansion) in flash April vs 52.6 prior, well ahead of the drop to 51.5 expected.”
10. Dollar reserves. "Investors continue to diversify away from the USD. Dollar reserves at lowest levels in a long time."
11. Industrial metals. "Industrial metals are reversing to long-term uptrends, which is interesting given the soft economic data."
12. 0DTE volatility. "~0DTE vol has been structurally rising versus the VIX."
13. 0DTE trading (I). "Retail crowd has been losing on average $358k a day since May ‘22 on 0DTE trading."
14. 0DTE trading (II). "46% of all options traded expire in 6.5 hours or less, a new all time high."
15. Money markets. "ICI money market funds just had largest weekly outflow since July 2020."
16. Retail buying. "Retail net stock purchases remain relatively subdued."
17. Healthcare flows. Healthcare funds continue seeing large inflows.
18. Corporate raiders. "Performance of companies targeted by activist investors."
19. SPX breadth. "S&P 500 is close to its Feb 2023 highs, but % of stocks above their 200-day MA (market breadth) is significantly lower."
20. Taiwan vs. global EPS. "Weak Taiwan exports [are] consistent with [negative] global profits."
21. Global earnings growth. "Non-US earnings are now seeing a cyclical recovery, while US earnings keep declining."
22. EPS expectations. "The earnings downgrade cycle so far."
23. Recovery expectations. "The market expects a v-shaped recovery in earnings and sales growth."
24. Earnings volatility. "Investors expect earnings related volatility to be lower than what we have seen over the past quarters."
25. Profit margins. "For now, profit margins on an economy-wide level remain close to five-decade highs."
26. Q1 earnings (I). "Overall, 18% of the companies in the S&P 500 have reported...76% have reported actual EPS above estimates, which is below the 5-year average of 77% but above the 10-year average of 73%."
27. Q1 earnings (II). "63% of S&P 500 companies have reported actual revenues above estimates, which is below the 5-year average of 69% but equal to the 10-year average of 63%."
28. Q1 earnings (III). "The blended earnings decline for the first quarter is -6.2% today, compared to an earnings decline of -6.7% last week and an earnings decline of -6.7% at the end of the first quarter (March 31)."
29. Q1 earnings (IV). And finally, “the blended revenue growth rate for the first quarter is 2.1% today, compared to a revenue growth rate of 1.9% last week and a revenue growth rate of 1.9% at the end of the first quarter (March 31).”
Have a great weekend!
fantastic as always!