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Daily Chartbook #182

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Daily Chartbook #182

Catch up on the day in 30 charts

Daily Chartbook
Apr 15, 2023
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Daily Chartbook #182

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Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: the day’s best charts & insights, curated.


1. Bank borrowing. "Banks reduced their borrowings from two Federal Reserve backstop lending facilities for a fourth straight week."

Emergency Lending Drops | Banks' demand for cash from the Fed falls for fourth straight week
Bloomberg

2. Office vacancy. "The U.S. office vacancy rate is at an all-time high as commercial real estate reels from remote-work arrangements."

Axios

3. Wage growth (I). "Wage growth for highest-earning quartile (orange) now strongest on record (going back to late-90s) at 5.3% … wage growth for lowest-earning quartile (blue) has rolled over from peak but still strong at 7.1%."

Image
@lizannsonders

4. Wage growth (II). "Wage growth for job switchers (blue) and stayers (orange) reaccelerated in March, with former moving to 7.3% and latter to 5.9%."

Image
@lizannsonders

5. Retail sales (I). Retail sales dropped more than expected in March, falling by 1% vs. market expectations of a 0.4% decline.

Image
@kathyjones

6. Retail sales (II). Month-over-month change by category.

Image
@gregdaco

7. Retail sales (III). "Retail sales rose just 2.9% Y/Y: this was the lowest annual rise in retail sales since June 2020."

Zero Hedge

8. Industrial production. " Industrial Production [black] number was solid, coming in at 0.4%, double the expected 0.2%, and following an upward revised 0.2% (from 0.0%)...Manufacturing output [orange] decreased 0.5 percent in March and was 1.1 percent below its year-earlier level."

Zero Hedge

9. Consumer sentiment. "Sentiment rebounds slightly in April, but still depressed."

Image
UMich via @gregdaco

10. Consumer inflation expectations. "1-year inflation expectations soared by 1% from 3.6% in March - the lowest print since April 2021 - to 4.6% in April, the highest since November 22. This was the biggest jump in 1-Year inflation expectations since May 2021."

UMich via Zero Hedge


11. Q1 GDP. "The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2023 is 2.5 percent on April 14, up from 2.2 percent on April 10."

Atlanta Fed

12. SPY short interest. "People are still too prepared for a move lower in equities."

SPY short interest
JPMorgan via TME

13. Tech flows. Tech funds saw their 3rd largest outflow on record. 

Image
BofA via Daily Shot, @lanceroberts

14. Healthcare flows. Meanwhile, healthcare funds saw their largest inflow since November 2022.

Image
BofA via Daily Shot, @lanceroberts

15. Retail flows. "Since March 9 there’s been very consistent net selling—20d net flows are back down at a fairly negative level."

Retail puking equities
JPMorgan via TME

16. Retail performance. "Retail portfolios are still deeply underwater."

Vanda Research via Daily Shot

17. Active managers. The NAAIM Exposure Index fell to 58.71 from 72.89 last week.

NAAIM

18. CFTC equity futures positions. "Asset managers and leveraged funds are all but long this market."

Far from long
JPMorgan via TME

19. Hedge funds vs. financials. "Hedge fund long/short ratio in banks is printing new recent lows, trading at levels last seen in March 2020."

Hedgies hate banks
Goldman Sachs via TME

20. Hedge funds vs. cyclicals. "Net leverage in Cyclicals now down to 0%-tile."

Hedge fund positioning: Another extreme
Morgan Stanley via TME

21. Hedge funds vs. defensives. Net leverage in defensives is in the 99th percentile.

Hedge fund positioning: Another extreme
Morgan Stanley via TME

22. Global > US equities. "Investors should avoid US stocks as expectations of a recession have become universal, according to Bank of America Corp.’s Michael Hartnett."

Non-US Stocks Outpace the S&P 500 | Hartnett prefers international equities where tech is less concentrated
Bloomberg

23. Growth vs. value. "Growth valuations vs Value remain at historically high levels."

Image
BofA via @mikezaccardi

24. ERP. "The market has NOT priced in a recession. Equity risk premium is still under 2%. There are levels last seen: During the 2008 crash; Leading up to the 2022 top."

Image
@gameoftrades_

25. Dividend pricing (I). "Dividend futures markets pricing 2.5% growth in 2023 and -2.2% in 2024."

Image
Goldman Sachs via @mikezaccardi

26. Dividend pricing (II). "Over the long term, we think S&P 500 dividend futures are pricing an unreasonably bleak outlook...In contrast with the market pricing of 1%, we forecast an annualized DPS growth rate of 6% during the next decade."

GS bullish on long-term divvies
Goldman Sachs via TME

27. Dividends vs. recessions. "Dividends typically fall by just 1% during recessions."

Image
Goldman Sachs via @mikezaccardi

28. Q1 earnings beats. Overall, 6% of companies in the S&P 500 have reported, “90% of $SPX companies have beaten EPS estimates to date for Q1, which is above the 5-year average of 77% and above the 10-year average of 73%.”

01-sp-500-earnings-above-in-line-below-estimates-q1-2023
@factset

29. Q1 earnings growth. “The blended earnings decline for the first quarter is -6.5%."

03-sp-500-earnings-growth-q1-2023
Fact Set

30. Q1 revenue growth. And finally, “the blended revenue growth rate for the first quarter is 2.0% today.”

04-sp-500-revenue-growth-q1-2023
Fact Set

Have a great weekend!

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