Daily Chartbook

Share this post

Daily Chartbook #181

www.dailychartbook.com

Daily Chartbook #181

Catch up on the day in 29 charts

Daily Chartbook
Apr 14, 2023
41
1
Share

Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: the day’s best charts & insights, curated.


1. Oil vs. CPI. "Bloomberg’s economic scenario modeling tool — SHOK — suggests that supply cuts pushing oil to about $120 per barrel in 2024 would keep US inflation at nearly 4% by the end of 2024 compared with a baseline forecast of 2.7%."

Bloomberg

2. Oil reversals. "For only the 5th time since 1984, crude oil futures (CL1) cycled from a 3-month low to a 3-month high in fewer than 20 trading sessions. If history rhymes, subsequent CPI reports could be interesting."

Image
@deanchristians

3. Truckload index. "Truckload spot rates have dropped by 21% since the start of the year (off the back of one of the worst 4Q in recent memory)."

Image
@freightalley

4. PPI (I). March PPI surprised to the downside with a 0.5% MoM drop (largest since April 2020), “while energy was a big drag, services was the weakest since Mar 2020.”

Image
@lizyoungstrat

5. PPI (II). Headline PPI was down 2.7% YoY (lowest since Jan 2021) in March and saw the "first drop in energy since Jan 2021."

Image
@zerohedge

6. PPI (III). YoY breakdown of subcomponents.

Image
@zerohedge

7. PPI (IV). "This is positive for margins theoretically as the CPI-PPI spread is at a record high."

Zero Hedge

8. Jobless claims (I). "Initial weekly US unemployment claims rose by 11k to 239k...Continuing claims, which incl people who have received unemployment benefits for a week or more and are a good indicator of how hard it is for people to find work fell to 1.81 mln."

Image
@schuldensuehner

9. Jobless claims (II). "New claims in year-over-year terms rose for a 7th straight week--an early sign of weaker labor market conditions ahead."

Image
@jpicerno

10. Hike probabilities. "Post-CPI report, a drop in market-based likelihood of 25bps rate hike at May meeting, from ~71% to ~64%."

Image
Bianco Research via @lizannsonders


11. Fed funds target. "Projected U.S. interest rates have reverted to their level at the start of February, before anxiety about inflation increased."

Image
@jkempenergy

12. Loan voumes. "Chart below begs to differ from Yellen’s comment two days ago: 'I’ve not really seen evidence at this stage suggesting a contraction in credit, although that is a possibility.'"

Image
FT via @lizannsonders

13. Credit conditions. "Recession risk still high and financial conditions getting tighter."

Conditions
TS Lombard via TME

14. Unicorn births. "The unicorn game got tougher with only 13 companies getting their horn in Q1’23. This was the lowest unicorn birth count in 6 years."

Unicorns have a birthrate problem
CB Insights via TME

15. Uninverting. "Dropping inflation and a steepening yield curve out of a deep inversion both hint at recession being more likely later this year."

Image
Bloomberg via @mayhem4markets

16. Junk debt. "Investors are shying away from the riskiest US corporate debt as fears of an impending recession fuel a growing divide between the highest- and lowest-rated companies in the $1.4tn high-yield bond market."

Line chart of Spread over US Treasuries on double-B rated US corporate bonds (percentage points) showing Higher-quality ‘junk’ debt rebounds
FT

17. Gold near ATHs. "Gold now flirting with the highest closing prices ever, priced in traditional USD."

Image
@allstarcharts

18. Gold vs. SPX. "Going back to 1970, this ratio tends to appreciate on average by 72% for the next two years after the US Treasury curve inverts by more than 70%."

Image
@tavicosta

19. Equity volatilities. "The SPY 5 day realized has not printed these levels in a very long time. 1 month implieds have moved lower as well."

No moves panic
The Market Ear

20. Equity flows. "Weak investment flows are consistent with 6% downside to the S&P 500."

Weak investment flows should mean weak equities
Goldman Sachs via TME

21. Risk appetite. "The risk appetite of US equity investors is still negative."

Image
S&P Global via @isabelnet_sa

22. Hedge fund vs. equities. Hedge fund positioning "is at very conservative levels." 

HF positioning: longer term view
JPMorgan via TME

23. Hedge funds vs. energy. Hedge funds "have been cutting down on energy longs for months, and are not positioned for a further possible move higher in energy."

Hedge funds and energy - what happened?
Goldman Sachs via TME

24. Buybacks. "So far, US share buyback authorization announcements are running at record level."

Image
Goldman Sachs via @isabelnet_sa

25. IPOs, buybacks & secondary offerings. "The most important driver of equity market is the reduction of stocks outstanding (high buybacks and low IPO)."

Image
@credit_junk
See:
Credit from Macro to Micro

26. Rule of 20. "Rule of 20 (which combines S&P 500’s P/E and CPI year/year) continues to suggest market remains overvalued."

Image
@lizannsonders

27. Fading highs. "The number of stocks that set new highs has declined on each successive rally this year."

@meanstoatrend via Daily Shot

28. Corporate margins. "Long term, corporate over-earning era may be coming to an end."

Margins: what if...?
Barclays via TME

29. EPS growth. And finally, “this earnings season may bring about the largest year-over-year decline in EPS since Q4 2020.”

Image
Goldman Sachs via @mayhem4markets

Thanks for reading!

41
1
Share
1 Comment
Arvin Thapar
Writes Arvin’s Substack
Apr 14Liked by Daily Chartbook

Thank you

Expand full comment
Reply
Top
New
Community

No posts

Ready for more?

© 2023 Daily Chartbook
Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Start WritingGet the app
Substack is the home for great writing