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Daily Chartbook #171
Catch up on the day in 26 charts
Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: the day’s best charts & insights, curated.
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1. US petroleum inventory monitor. "Another 10+ million barrel total commercial petroleum inventory draw in the US over the past week, following last week's similarly-sized draw."
2. Mortgage demand. "Contract rates on 30Y fixed rate mortgages fell 3bps to 6.45%, the lowest since February 10, supporting prospective buyer demand. Mortgage purchase applications advanced for the 4th consecutive week, rising 2.0% for the week ending March 24."
3. 30-year spread. "The spread between Bankrate.com's 30-year national average fixed mortgage rate and the 30-year Treasury yield has never been wider dating back to 1998."
4. Pending home sales (I). "February pending home sales +0.8% vs. -3% est. & +8.1% in prior month … level (blue) has now seen a 10% bounce from recent low in November."
5. Pending home sales (II). Sales are "down 20%+ on a y/y basis for a record 9 straight months."
6. Container rates. "Global shipping rates continue to edge lower, emphasizing that worst of supply chain crisis is definitively behind us ... price boom looks to be almost completely over for nearly every major route."
7. Cass Freight volumes & expenditures. "When both Cass indices turn sharply negative year over year, a recession usually follows. We are near such a point right now."
8. National Financial Conditions Index. The NFCI "was –0.12 in the week ending March 24, suggesting financial conditions tightened."
9. Consumer spending. "Barclays US consumer card spending data turns negative."
10. Revolving debt. "The six biggest monthly increases in revolving consumer credit, which mostly covers credit card borrowing, in the last 20 years have all occurred within the past 12 months."
11. China vs. US Treasuries. "At the peak in 2013, China held $1.3trn in US Treasuries. Today they hold $850bn, and the selling has accelerated over the past two years."
12. Treasury shorts. "Speculative positioning, according to CFTC data for the week ending Mar 21, shows shorts wiped out."
13. US10Y vs. SPX. "Short term rates/equities correlation has shot up."
14. BTC vs. Nasdaq. "Bitcoin is still correlated with the Nasdaq 100 but its sensitivity (beta) has changed."
15. Tech flows. "The short-covering in tech looks mostly done. Investors have now bought back all the tech they sold since the August 2022 peak."
16. Hedge fund exposure. "Gross exposure has moved higher, but more interesting is the fact net exposure according to GS prime data has done nothing for months."
17. CTA positioning. "CTAs have sold a lot of equities lately, $150bn according to GS. The gap between positioning and markets is rather huge here...and estimated projections is that CTAs are big buyers of equities in flat/up scenarios."
18. Sector dispersion. "Dispersion in US sector performance supports the idea that the market is pricing an uneven growth shock."
19. High duration. "The only GICS Level 1 sectors that have outperformed the index in 2023 are the three with the highest duration."
20. Tail risks. "At the same time, option markets in equities have been pricing in greater downside tail-risks."
21. Cyclicals. "Cyclical growth stocks have been outperforming cyclical value stocks, consistent with a disinflationary environment."
22. Upside calls. "Upside calls are the cheapest they have been in 12 months."
23. Put/call ratio. "Put hate is back, and the crowd managed doing it again, loving puts at local market lows."
24. Tech breadth. "The S&P 500 Technology sector has more stocks above their 200-day average than any other sector. And the spread between Tech and the S&P 500 climbed to the highest level since June 2020."
25. NDX breadth (I). "NASDAQ breadth is about the worst it has ever been."
26. NDX breadth (II). And finally, “since everyone is RTing that Naz breadth chart from ZH I would like to chime in with a chart of my own. Naz breadth has been in a downtrend for nearly 30 years."
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