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Daily Chartbook #17

www.dailychartbook.com

Daily Chartbook #17

29 charts

Daily Chartbook
Aug 11, 2022
3
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Daily Chartbook #17

www.dailychartbook.com

Welcome back to PAV Chartbook: market charts, data, research, and insights pulled from various sources around the Internet by a solo retail investor.


1. Global supply chain (I). Delivery times are improving around the world.

Financial Times

2. Global supply chain (II). Pressures are easing.

Financial Times

3. Global supply chain (III). Container freight rates are down across all major routes.

Financial Times

4. US supply chain (I). “The Oxford Economics Supply Chain Stress Index eased modestly last month.”

Oxford Economics via Daily Shot

5. US supply chain (II). “The share of US factories reporting declining delivery times is rising”.

Financial Times

6. Global food prices. The International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) World Fertilizer Index is down “10% from its recent peak” which should offer relief from near-record high food prices.

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@lizannsonders

7. Small business jobs. From yesterday’s Small Business Optimism Index—job openings (blue) are still difficult to fill while hiring plans (orange) have declined sharply.

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@lizannsonders

8. Global tightening. More central banks than ever are lifting interest rates.

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@TS_Lombard

9. CPI unch. The month-to-month inflation rate remain unchanged in July.

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@samro

10. CPI & Core CPI. Year-over-year headline inflation (blue) was 8.5% in July. Core inflation (orange), which excludes food and energy, increased 0.3% (less than expected) to 5.9% year-over-year.

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@lizannsonders


11. Core CPI decline streak. Year-over-year core inflation growth has declined for 4 consecutive months.

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@thestalwart

12. June vs. July CPI. Here’s a side-by-side breakdown of year-over-year growth for contributors to inflation.

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@m_mcdonough

13. Topline contributors. Year-over-year growth for topline contributors.

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@m_mcdonough

14. Topline contributors (II). The same, but month-over-month. Note energy…

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@m_mcdonough

15. Gas prices. CPI gas prices experienced their largest monthly drop since April 2020.

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@lizannsonders

16. CPI categories. Here’s a more detailed look at July’s price changes.

@loganmohtashami

17. CPI subcomponents. Year-over-year increases in the top 5 subcomponent contributors to inflation.

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@m_mcdonough

18. Atlanta Fed. After the cool inflation print, the GDPNow forecast is now predicting 2.45% GDP growth in Q3.

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@m_mcdonough

19. Latin American CPI. Inflation is forecasted to rise throughout Latin America (except Brazil).

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20. Fed odds shift. The market is now placing a greater chance on a 50 bps hike in September than 75 bps.

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@mikeziccardi

21. Gold (I). “Gold ETFs have disconnected from recession risks”.

GS via TME

22. Gold (II). Looking at the past, gold “rallied during rate hikes under a Fed focused on growth and fell under a Fed focused on reducing inflation”.

Haver via TME

23. Resilient 2023 margins? Analysts have revised margin expectations down to still-record levels.

BofA via TME

24. Investing is hard. “Only 18% of large-cap managers beat their benchmark over the past 12 months.”

BofA via Daily  Shot

25. The popular-stocks rally. Technology and consumer discretionary stocks have been in the driver’s seat since mid-June.

WSJ

26. Meme stocks are back? Speaking of popular stocks, GME 0.00 AMC 0.00 and BBBY 0.00 have been acting like meme stocks again recently. In fact, “retail trader-favored stocks are having their best quarter since the original meme frenzy in 1Q21”.

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@lizannsonders

27. Dividends…anyone? Nobody is interested in dividends right now.

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@michaelaarouet

28. Bulls vs. Bears. Investor Intelligence “bulls have risen for five weeks in a row and are at their highest level since the first week of the year. Bulls and bears have completely flipped since the June lows”.

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@williedelwiche

29. Retail army. And finally, retail investors have been buying stocks aggressively, spending $3.4 billion on equities over the past week.

JPM via TME
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Daily Chartbook #17

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