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Daily Chartbook #167

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Daily Chartbook #167

Catch up on the day in 26 charts

Daily Chartbook
Mar 24, 2023
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Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: the day’s best charts & insights, curated.

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1. New home sales (I). "February new home sales +1.1% vs. -3.1% est. & +1.8% prior month (rev down from +7.2%) … third consecutive monthly increase, which hasn’t happened since 2020; median new home price +2.5% year/year to $438,200."

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@lizannsonders

2. New home sales (II). "Year-over-year, new home sales remain down 19%, but on a SAAR basis are back near their highest since last April."

Zero Hedge

3. New home sales (III). "Months' supply of new homes (blue) was 8.2 in Feb, off its highs but still elevated. Supply changes typically lead y/y home prices (white) by about a year, implying further downside to prices over the next 12 months."

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@lizyoungstrat

4. Truckload market. "The freight market is teetering on a pretty big development. Tender volumes in the truckload market are on the verge of crossing below 2019 levels. There has been zero sign of any firming in the market as we head into the start of the Spring shipping season."

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@freightalley

5. Economic activity. "US economic activity was below trend in Feb via Chicago Fed Nat'l Activity Index, but recession risk still appears low. Nonetheless, all four broad categories of the index posted negative contributions in Feb."

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Chicago Fed via @jpicerno

6. Jobless claims (I). "Initial jobless claims declined -1,000 to 191,000 last week, while the more important 4 week moving average declined 250 to 196,250. Continuing claims, with a one week delay, rose 14,000 to 1.694 million."

The Bonddad Blog

7. Jobless claims (II). "In 1 out of 5 US States, jobless claims have already risen more than 25% on a YoY basis. The overall number remains contained, but the breadth (blue) is deteriorating to levels which have often preceded recessions."

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@macroalf

8. WFH. "Workplace mobility on a national level, as measured by Kastle Systems, has yet to surpass 50% of pre-pandemic levels."

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Kastle Systems via @datarbor

9. CPI vs. Fed funds rate. "If CPI year/year ends up being >5% in March, then number of consecutive months with CPI year/year > fed funds rate would total 28, which is tied for longest stretch on record (last was early 2010s)."

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@lizannsonders

10. Fed fund forecast. "We have left our forecast for the peak funds rate unchanged at 5.25-5.5% and now expect additional 25bp rate hikes in May and June."

Goldman Sachs via TME


11. Quiet capital markets. "Since SVB went under, there has been basically no HY issuance, IG issuance, or IPO activity…and completed M&A activity since Friday, March 10 reflects long-time planned M&A rather than new risk-taking."

US capital markets have been essentially frozen since SVB went under
Torsten Sløk

12. Dollar debasement. "The dollar's value has steadily eroded as the quality of assets held by the Fed has deteriorated."

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Simon White via @zerohedge

13. MOVE vs. credit spreads. "The recent surge in bond volatility suggests that corporate spreads remain too tight and are likely to move significantly higher."

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@tavicosta

14. Cash allocations. "FMS cash levels remain high and above the long-term average."

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BofA via @isabelnet_sa

15. Sector allocations. Fund managers are most overweight healthcare, staples, and materials; most underweight discretionary, utilities, and tech.

BofA via Daily Shot

16. Bank bears. "Wall Street is very bearish on banks."

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BofA via @mayhem4markets

17. Households equity demand. "We forecast households will be net sellers of $750 billion in equities in 2023."

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Goldman Sachs via @wallstjesus

18. Retail selling. "Retail have been selling single stocks during the latest move higher, especially some of the big tech stuff according to JPM…'sold TSLA (-$419MM), GOOG/GOOGL (-$234MM) and AMD (-$216MM)'."

Retail have been selling
JPMorgan via TME

19. NAAIM. Active manager exposure moved up to 53 from 42 last week.

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NAAIM via @wallstjesus

20. Hedge funds. "First the record record short CFTC position in SOFR futures, now the record capitulation. Around 80% of hedge funds' aggregate bet on higher US rates is wiped out in a week. That's got to hurt."

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@reutersjamie

21. Fund flows. "Mutual fund and ETF flows have been **away** from US equities YTD."

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Goldman Sachs via @gunjanjs

22. Asset class yields. "Fixed income far more attractive than equities, and especially US equities."

Yields cross assets
Soc Gen via TME

23. Earnings & margin. "Trailing earnings are flatlining, while expected earnings are coming down. Margins are contracting but remain at pre-COVID levels (12%)."

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@timmerfidelity

24. Earnings contractions (I). "Earnings Pessimism = Reason for Optimism...Negative earnings growth is in the bullish mode for the S&P 500, while the U.S. beat rate is stable with reversing momentum."

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@ndr_research

25. Earnings contractions (II). Counter argument: "Earnings contractions are bullish? Dates when forward EPS growth FELL to zero: March 01, January 08, April 15, Oct 2019, January 2023."

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@warrenpies

26. SPX vs. hike speed. And finally, “this is a fast hike cycle...If we follow the average fast hike cycle it tells us more sideways price action.”

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@granthawkridge

Thanks for reading!

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3 Comments
Chris
Mar 24Liked by Daily Chartbook

Thank you.

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David Brown
Mar 24Liked by Daily Chartbook

My first read every morning. Very insightful.

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