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Daily Chartbook #166

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Daily Chartbook #166

Catch up on the day in 27 charts

Daily Chartbook
Mar 23, 2023
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Daily Chartbook #166

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Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: the day’s best charts & insights, curated.


1. US petroleum inventories. "Charts on US petroleum inventories in MB."

Image
EIA via @staunovo

2. US petroleum exports. "US total petroleum exports (crude oil and refined products) last week surged to a new record high of ~12 million b/d."

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@javierblas

3. MBA mortgage data (I). "With higher mortgage rates, the refinance index declined sharply in 2022."

Calculated Risk

4. MBA mortgage data (II). "Purchase activity is down 36% year-over-year unadjusted."

Calculated Risk

5. Financial conditions. NFCI “was –0.24 in the week ending March 17, suggesting financial conditions tightened."

Visual of National Financial Conditions Index
@chicagofed

6. Credit conditions. "The University of Michigan asks consumers about credit conditions, and the chart below shows that even before the SVB situation, credit conditions had tightened to levels last seen in 2008."

Credit conditions are at 2008 levels for consumers
Torsten Sløk

7. CRE (I). "Commercial real estate is in trouble, so the next question become who holds most of it on their books? The overwhelming answer is mid-sized banks."

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@lvieweconomics

8. CRE (II). "One area of particular concern has been the office property sector where regional banks have an outsized exposure to office loans."

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Goldman Sachs via @blakemillardcfa

9. Fed hikes (I). The Fed unanimously hiked rates by 25 bps.

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@jsblokland

10. Fed hikes (II). "Side-by side dots.  No big changes, but look at the enormous spread of forecasts for 24/25. They just don't know."

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@ianshepherdson


11. Fed hikes (III). Updated FOMC statement.

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@nicktimiraos

12. Fed funds futures (I). "The only other months to see such volatility in fed funds futures were: January 2001, September 2001, January and October of 2008; and March 2020."

relates to No Good Options for Judgment Day at the Fed
Bespoke via John Authers

13. Fed funds futures (II). "Fed Funds Futures are now pricing in the first rate CUT in July and an additional two cuts by end of year."

Image
@sstrazza

14. Stocks vs. bonds vs. unemployment. "From low ERP levels and with rising unemployment, equities seldom outperform bonds - late-cycle risks often outweigh prospective returns from moving up the risk curve, unless the momentum for the growth/inflation mix is positive."

Equities seldom outperform bonds with unemployment rising
Goldman Sachs via TME

15. Global equities vs. conditions. "What happens when one or more of these five things are happening? 1) SPX forward earnings declining; 2) yield curve inverted; 3) Unemployment below avg; 4) Mfg PMIs < 50; 5) 40% of banks tightening lending standards...All five are in place today, which is rare."

Perfect score for weaker equities
Morgan Stanley via TME

16. Bond inflows. "BofA’s private clients continue to buy bonds."

BofA via Daily Shot

17. Liquidity. "Liquidity has fallen off a cliff. Reshuffling risk is costly these days as prices are massively impacted by even the not so big orders."

Bid/ask
Barclays via TME

18. Active managers. "The most bearish active managers are the most short they've been on US stocks since the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Also note the dispersion in conviction--the bulls are very bullish while the bears are very bearish. Both can't be right…"

Image
NAAIM via @lizyoungstrat

19. CTAs vs SPX (I). "Our CTA positioning metrics estimate positioning in SPX is at the LOWEST LEVEL OF ALL TIME (-$31bn)."

Goldman Sachs via TME

20. CTAs vs. SPX (II). "The buying in an up tape could be up to $60bn. Add to this poor liquidity and things risk getting painful for CTAs."

Lowest level of all time
Goldman Sachs via TME

21. CTA performance. Last week, "CTAs had their worst 3-day performance in 3 decades."

CTA's proper ides of March
Goldman Sachs via TME

22. Pure leverage. "A Bloomberg index that goes long highly leveraged stocks and shorts those with limited debt just posted its worst week since April 2020."

The Leverage Factor Plunges | Investors suddenly shun stocks with high debt levels
BofA via TME

23. Megacap tech. "This chart provides some context on the recent mega-cap technology outperformance. It's almost on par with the flight-to-safety trade post the Covid crash."

Image
Bloomberg

24. Buybacks. "S&P 500 companies in 4Q22 continued their retreat from record-breaking buybacks in 1Q22; share repurchases $211.2B in 4Q vs. $210.8B in 3Q and $270.1B a year ago."

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@deanchristians

25. Earnings estimates (I). "S&P Global just released their 2024 earnings estimates. They are suggesting that earnings will surge well above long-term growth trends, and well above economic growth expectations without the benefit of inflation, stimulus, and low rates."

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@lizannsonders

26. Earnings estimates (II). "Earnings estimates are starting to stabilize suggesting that Wall Street is becoming more confident a recession will be avoided."

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@lanceroberts

27. Earnings uncertainty. And finally, there's "a growing dispersion in analyst earnings estimates (typically occurs during risk-off periods)."

Yardeni via @lanceroberts

Thanks for reading!

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