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Daily Chartbook #165

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Daily Chartbook #165

Catch up on the day in 28 charts

Daily Chartbook
Mar 22, 2023
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Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: the day’s best charts & insights, curated.


1. Existing home sales (I). "Existing home sales jumped in February by +14.5% vs. +5% est. & -0.7% in prior month (best month since July 2020) … monthly supply at 2.6; median selling price -0.2% year/year to $363k."

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@lizannsonders

2. Existing home sales (II). "Mortgage payments for a new purchaser of a median-priced existing single-family home was equal to 51% of disposable income in February, down from the recent peak of 55% in October but significantly above the 30-to-35% during the pre-Covid era."

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Pantheon Macro via @carlquintanilla

3. Global GDP. "2% real global GDP growth forecasted this year."

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Goldman Sachs via @mikezaccardi

4. Supply chain easing. "The Fed's Global Supply Chain Pressure Index fell to lowest level since August 2019."

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@gunjanjs

5. Financial conditions. "The US True Financial Conditions Index is close to a 40-year low".

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John Authers via @jessefelder

6. Financial stress. "FWIW, the real-world signs of financial stress are still muted. So, are the financial stress indicators wrong and will have to play catchup? Or are they right and people are over-reacting?"

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@jaykaeppel

7. M&A activity. "The number of U.S. M&A deals decreased by 23% from January to February, while total spending on U.S. M&A deals increased by 136% during this time."

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Fact Set

8. Systemic credit event. "US shadow banking still seen as the biggest source of a systemic credit event."

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BofA via @samro

9. Tail risks. "Systemic credit event' overtakes 'inflation stays high' as biggest tail risk."

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BofA via @samro

10. Recession fear. "A systemic credit event has replaced stubborn inflation as the key risk to markets for increasingly pessimistic investors."

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BofA via Bloomberg, @c_barraud


11. Stagflation. "Expectations for stagflation have remained above 80% for 10 months in a row… FMS investors have never held such strong conviction about the economic outlook."

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BofA via @ferrotv

12. Fed funds rate. "Hawkish shift in expectations of 'peak' Fed this month; investors see an additional 75bp hike this cycle."

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BofA via @samro

13. Yield curve. Investors expect a steeper yield curve in the next 12 months.

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BofA via @callum_thomas

14. Stocks vs. bond yields. "Stocks and bond yields moving together again (briefly) ... rolling 20-day correlation between S&P 500 (blue) and 10 U.S. Treasury yield (orange) has jumped into positive territory."

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@lizannsonders

15. Bitcoin rally. "After slumping 64% last year, Bitcoin has recently beaten major asset classes amid the banking turmoil that shook the finance world."

John Authers

16. Investor flows. "Last week saw huge inflows to both large-cap equity and U.S. Treasury ETFs (>$10B each) ... over past month, government bond ETFs have made up 73% of inflows, while large-cap ETFs have made up only 5.2% of inflows."

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Arbor Data via @lizannsonders

17. Energy flows. "Energy inflows were the largest in our data history since 2008."

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BofA via @mikezaccardi

18. Risk appetite. "The GS 'Risk appetite indicator' crashes down to 2022 bear market levels."

Goldman Sachs via TME

19. Risky vs. safe. Investors are pouring into safe assets funds over risky ones.

Datastream via TME

20. Risks perception. "Last Bofa FMS shows a level of pessimism that usually coincide with market bottom."

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BofA via @credit_junk

21. FMS positioning (I). Fund managers are most overweight emerging markets equities and cash, and most underweight US equities.

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BofA via @lanceroberts, Daily Shot

22. FMS positioning (II). Relative to history, fund managers are most long bonds, staples, and cash.

@ukarlewitz

23. Consolidated equity positioning. "Positioning has become more bearish."

Deutsche Bank via Daily Shot

24. Bearish investors. "Investors now the most bearish they have been since the start of '23."

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BofA via @beursanalist

25. Hedge funds. "Trend-following hedge funds…just had their worst 5-day stretch this century."

relates to Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day
Bob Elliot via Joe Weisenthal

26. Cash flow usage. "55% of FMS investors want corporates to improve balance sheets over increasing capital spending (21%) or returning cash to shareholders (17%)."

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BofA via @mikezaccardi

27. Nasdaq vs. SPX. "NASDAQ’s recent 9.5 percentage point outperformance over the last 50 trading days versus the S&P 500 is highly unusual from a statistical perspective."

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Data Trek

28. SPX vs. bond market volatility. And finally, "which one gives first?"

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@t1alpha

Thanks for reading!

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